Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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I know you're on the Russia bandwagon, so I hope you won't take this too hard: the USSR was trash. It's impossible for China to repeat its mistakes since China is just on a different plane. It's insulting to bring up the USSR as any kind of comparison or cautionary tale to China.
China is not under formal restrictions but it is under practical ones. It benefits China for America to give that up since Russia would recognize that it has no chance whatsoever to keep up with America, forcing it to swallow its pride and misgivings and partner its nuclear weapons program with China's.
The plutonium from civilian PWRs is too contaminated with Pu-240 to be useful for making thermonuclear bomb primaries. Russia has the good stuff that comes from fast reactors and decommissioned weapons.
FT reported, that US intel was surprised by China hypersonic test last year. I don’t see any reason why we should hold the Pentagon estimates on a golden throne and the 350 estimate was from late 2020 which was 1.5 years ago.
You don’t have to believe China has 1000s of warheads but if you believe the Pentagon 2020 estimates and 2030 estimates then China certainly has more then +350 warheads available. Unless you believe China stopped producing warheads because Biden became President between 2021 and H1 2022.
You don’t have to believe China has 1000s of warheads but if you believe the Pentagon 2020 estimates and 2030 estimates then China certainly has more then +350 warheads available. Unless you believe China stopped producing warheads because Biden became President between 2021 and H1 2022.
World wars aren't won by the starting army, its won by the army at the end.
If you look at how many tanks Germany had in 1939 compared to how many tanks the Soviets had, you'd believe the Soviets weren't strong enough to challenge them. If you look at how many aircraft carriers Japan had during Pearl Harbor compared to what America had, you'd believe the Americans weren't strong enough to challenge them.
I don't think China should aggressively pursue a war as soon as possible, but even US' own simulations which you can be sure will completely ignore industrial and economical factors, generally favor China. So, all signs point towards America not being strong enough to invade Taiwan. And that is perhaps the reason why we have not seen larger moves involving the US military.
That's my point, warning or preventing her to not go to TW doesn't necessarily involve intentionally shooting down her plane from the onset.
Sorry, but for me, if China can suffer US warships sailing trough what China claims it's territorial waters zillion times- and do nothing- then what's one visit of a known anti-Chinese politician to Taiwan?
Exactly, building lots of silos is nice and all but the primary focus should be on advancing nuclear submarine tech as fast as possible. A large fleet of ICBM-capable subs will make China's second strike capabilities strong enough to guarantee MAD in any scenario. However, an important issue there is that the subs alone are not enough - China must have unimpeded access to deep water to effectively use them, which is another reason why China will have to crack the Taiwan problem sooner or later. Otherwise, it will be stuck with the nuclear sword of Damocles weighing over it regardless of the size of the economy & conventional military power.
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Fortunatly, Chinese government is run by a bit smarter people. At least I hope.
You need to read up on how international law works. And then maybe come back and run your mouth when you're actually informed.
Ships are afforded protection as long as they do innocent passage. China and Russia have also occasionally moved ships into US territorial waters, not as often but they're free to do so.
Sending a politician unlawfully into an area of civil war to rally enemies is a completely different question.
It's an unprecedented move of aggression that is only really 1 step behind open recognition and joining the war on the side of the rebels, like what Putin did in February in the LDPR.
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