Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[niwashi]

What about flights between other Chinese cities and Taiwan? Like Hong Kong-Taipei, which are one of the more popular routes, for example.

The major airports (PEK, CAN, etc.) in Mainland China only operates 1-2 flights to Taipei tomorrow. But they don't seem to be cancelled just yet.
Other mainland airports don't fly to Taipei (I think) due to covid.
That being said, HKG-TPE seems normal, around 10 planned, not much cancellations.

 

[tankphobia]

I think another factor is the years of Chinese foreign correspondence aimed at domestic consumption biting back. When you threaten action over every misgiving without acting on it, your enemy cease to see your warning as threats.

At the risk of losing credibility by linking to wikipedia, this WAS a thing during the 1950-60s, it seems to be showing itself again now:

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If China had acted more sternly during previous visits by retired politicians, the US would not dare send Pelosi to Taiwan, there needs to be consistent chain of escalation for the other side to gauge a possible response. China can't just jump from stern warning to shooting down a plane because the risk is that the other side will call your bluff and they will have no choice but to start WW3. Now we're in a downward spiral with no way to prevent disaster for either side, it is the American ego vs the Chinese ego, there can no longer be a win-win situation.

 

[clockwork]

Regarding warheads, China has never divulged how many they have, the only certainty is that they exist, they'll not be used first in a war, everything else about the arsenal is deliberately kept ambiguous.

The only public estimate is from western state media sources that have a vested interest in spreading fake news, basing it off some Chinese politician who once said they had hundreds of active nukes, without elaborating on what he meant with active or even if that was an important official at all.

So, your claim is wrong. Its especially wrong when you consider that there should be around 20 DF41s at the absolute least, which have 10 warheads each. And most (almost all even) of the Chinese arsenal is on legacy platforms such as the DF5A, not ultra modern DF41s.

Pray tell, how does the US DoD have a "vested interest" in understating China's capabilities? Because that's what the FAS etc. estimates are based off of in large part. If you knew any history (missile gap ring a bell?) you'd know threat inflation is the US's bread and butter.

Yes, the FAS/Pentagon numbers may be a slight undercount, but anyone postulating something far higher is an idiot. And I'm annoyed by the repeated bullshit about it on the forum.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Beiyang fleet also looked bigger and more advanced than Imperial Japanese fleet.

Legend has it that an Imperial Japanese officer visited the battleship Dingyuan, and secretly put on a white glove to wipe the inside of the guns. It came back rusty. At that point he notified the Imperial cabinet that Japan would defeat the Beiyang fleet.

 

[56860]

This is why China should just STFU and triple it's nuke stockpile or defence. If you wanna play drug-dealer as "revenge" against US, you already lost the game.

I already suggested this:

Here's what China needs to do: publicly announce that it will increase its nuclear stockpile to at least 5000 warheads, and carry out that threat ASAP. Then immediately renounce adherence to no first use policy, and make it abundantly clear that China is willing to go to nuclear annihilation to recover Taiwan.

The only red line Americans understand is one that is backed up by the threat of guaranteed, utter, and unavoidable nuclear annihilation. This is why they have avoided a direct conflict with Russia, all the way through the Cold War to the collapse of the USSR to modern day Ukraine war.

I am just saying there are also more covert ways to make them feel the pain. Nothing is off limits. I do not see the downsides to secretly supporting the import of fentanyl to the US. Cripple american youth and boost the domestic chinese economy at the same time. There are no downsides.

 

[Abominable]

Who said the Chinese military doesn't pay for its troops' healthcare?

The US produces multiple times more F-35s than China produces J-20s annually. The US navy still outmasses China's by at least three times. China is still constructing its first proper carrier, the US has eleven. China doesn't have a single nuclear submarine with performance above mediocre to its name.

For this and many other reasons, if China is spending more than America in real terms then it still isn't enough. China has a lot of ground to make up.

No, Chinese healthcare comes out of the healthcare budget. They aren't spending $50 billion of their military budget.

The rest of your post is not about military budget but total spending over decades. Yes America is ahead in that regard but as time goes on and platforms become obsolete even at current rates China will overtake America.

I don't huff copium about China having a vast and secret nuclear arsenal. The only arsenal that matters is the one your enemy thinks you have and if China has 1,000+ secret warheads somewhere, now would be a good time to announce their presence. Until then, it's Hans Kristensen's 350.

There are legitimate reasons why you may not want to disclose your nuclear capability. For one China unlike the US and Russia isn't bound by any nuclear arms limitation treaty. Disclosing that you have a lot more nuclear weapons would likely lead to that changing, or America/Russia leaving START.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Regarding warheads, China has never divulged how many they have, the only certainty is that they exist, they'll not be used first in a war, everything else about the arsenal is deliberately kept ambiguous.

The only public estimate is from western state media sources that have a vested interest in spreading fake news, basing it off some Chinese politician who once said they had hundreds of active nukes, without elaborating on what he meant with active or even if that was an important official at all.

So, your claim is wrong. Its especially wrong when you consider that there should be around 20 DF41s at the absolute least, which have 10 warheads each. And most (almost all even) of the Chinese arsenal is on legacy platforms such as the DF5A, not ultra modern DF41s.

This is illogical. "I don't know" is a perfectly valid response to the number of warheads China has. "I don't know, therefore it has a massive secret arsenal" is not a valid inference.

There's also the issue of how many warheads China actually has vs. how many the US thinks it has. The former is unknowable unless you're a very senior Chinese military official or the Chinese president. The latter is a very public number: 350 give or take a few dozen. This is what the US is taking into account in planning a nuclear war against China, so for all intents and purposes this is the number of warheads China has.

Like I said, if China has a secret stockpile of warheads somewhere (and there's no reason to believe it does other than wishful thinking), then it had better announce it soon because they're doing no good staying secret. In addition, even if China has substantially more then it still wouldn't be at parity with the US. There's no way it can do that without creating new fissile material and that would be known very quickly.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Pray tell, how does the US DoD have a "vested interest" in understating China's capabilities? Because that's what the FAS etc. estimates are based off of in large part. If you knew any history (missile gap ring a bell?) you'd know threat inflation is the US's bread and butter.

Yes, the FAS/Pentagon numbers may be a slight undercount, but anyone postulating something far higher is an idiot. And I'm annoyed by the repeated bullshit about it on the forum.

No, it is the exact opposite. US does threat overestimation if it thinks it can win only. People keep bringing up 1950s missile gap but never remember Macarthur's Home by Christmas or "policing action" in Vietnam.

 

[Will76]

There's no reason to believe china has 1000's of nukes ready. Its likely under the 1000 or slightly above 1000 if that.

 

[MixedReality]

I already suggested this:

I am just saying there are also more covert ways to make them feel the pain. Nothing is off limits. I do not see the downsides to secretly supporting the import of fentanyl to the US. You get to cripple american youth and boost the domestic chinese economy at the same time. There are no downsides.

If this Taiwan crisis doesn’t change CPC thinking, then I don’t know what will.

• 3-5% of GDP in military spending
• Nuclear warhead parity with US
• Abolish no-first-use policy