Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[56860]

It's war then. US draws first blood. But China will win the ultimate victory, because Chinese people are patient, intelligent, hardworking and logical. The American nation will pay dearly for this visit in the future. It will be humiliated before being decapitated.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

So, now that the visit is basically confirmed.

What scenarios are we really looking at? I currently see the below:

1. (Highest escalation) - Plane carrying Pelosi is shot down.

This scenario is one that really can lead to war.

With that said, from Guanqi episode 280, it seems like this is a rather unlikely scenario, but not impossibility.

2. (High escalation) - USAF escorting planes shot down, Pelosi lands in Taiwan

This is also a scenario that can lead to war, but it might really be a scenario with 'less chance' of leading to war.

As an aside, in this scenario it's likely that ROC planes are also gonna get shot down.

3. (Mid escalation) - Pelosi lands in Taiwan, ROC planes shot down (USAF planes turned back in time)

This is the one scenario talked about in Guanqi 280, and I think this must be the baseline scenario for China, nothing less is acceptable (best is ofc, forcing Pelosi to divert her plane so she doesn't land in Taiwan).

4. (Low? escalation) - Pelosi lands in mainland China, no planes are shot down

This is best case scenario for China, but might actually be hard to achieve.

This is how I kind of see it for now.

 

[MixedReality]

Close down the American embassy and consulates including the one in Hong Kong.

 

[FriedButter]

Close down the American embassy and consulates including the one in Hong Kong.

Ambassador could be recalled from the US. It was an option mentioned in a global times articles a couple days ago.

 

[GodRektsNoobs]

So, now that the visit is basically confirmed.

What scenarios are we really looking at? I currently see the below:









This is how I kind of see it for now.

What about Pelosi lands, and then the entire envoy (and the plane) gets obliterated by a HGV on the tarmac? Preferably right in front of English vegetable as well, I hope. That's certainly a night for her to remember.

 

[Petrolicious88]

Can someone explain to me why this is considered to be such a big issue when Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan in 1997 and it wasn't considered by the PRC to be some huge affront? Not only did Gingrich went, but he brought a huge entourage with a dozen members of Congress. I remember in late that year Jiang Zemin actually visited the US, had a state dinner with Bill Clinton, and put on a tricolor hat. The only thing is that Pelosi is in the same party as Biden whereas Gingrich was a Republican, but in terms of official US titles they were both Speaker of the House, and Gingrich was as much a member of the US government and in line for succession as Pelosi is.

Simple Answer. Newt Gingrich visited in 1997. What's china like 1997 vs. 2022

 

[Overbom]

So, now that the visit is basically confirmed.

What scenarios are we really looking at? I currently see the below:









This is how I kind of see it for now.

One more:
US military planes don't enter Taiwan's airspace, ROC planes are sent to escort her, PLAAF shoots down ROC planes, Pelosi turns back.

Depending on the circumstances, in this scenario, there is a non-zero chance that Pelosi's plane is shot down by accident

 

[FriedButter]

10 hours left until Pelosi reported landing. Could be earlier or later. Who knows how trust worthy this 22:30 is.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Cant blame the people. It was CPC that hyped the issue by threating to do xyz to Pelosis plane . Now you cant back off at the last moment after promising people a kinetic response.

What choice did the government have? Act, blind, dumb, and stupid, while the Pelosi show goes on unimpeded and allowed to proceed like an American victory? How do you think the people are going to look at their government? With pride and confidence, along with the conviction that their country's leadership are such benevolent people that they're willing to have humiliation on their face while they work on feverishly to their country's capabilities?

So who's next on the itinerary? I read that Australian PM is next on the docket list, and Pelosi will also be meeting with the Dalai Lama this December in India.

So if you're in the government what actions left do you have that will ensure, inspire confidence from your people short of war?

 

[plawolf]

So, now that the visit is basically confirmed.

What scenarios are we really looking at? I currently see the below:









This is how I kind of see it for now.

I think there are several levels of escalation below your top two that I had mentioned before.

- ROCAF fighters escorting Pelosi into ROC airspace gets splashed and Pelosi’s plane is allowed to leave alive.

- Pelosi’s plane is locked with radar and/or warning shows fired across her bow in ever decreasing distance to the plane itself until it turns back.

I am leaving out the more outlandish joke scenarios floating around Chinese internet of ROCAF escort fighters ramming Pelosi’s plane or shooting it down themselves where a pilot(s) takes things into their own hands to try to prevent war.