Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[SAC]

But that's if Pelosi and the DPP are going to remain rational when you know that Tsai will milk this episode to her advantage politically speaking. This visit can be spun as a showing of America's firm (albeit unofficial) commitment that Taiwan would not be forsaken and left alone against the tyranny of the commies. Despite the stern warnings, public issuance of vague threats, not to mention the public display of force by the PLA, America led by Pelosi pressed on and landed her plane escorted by American Naval assets without being interdicted. This is the message that America wants to convey that will get a lot of play and further deterioration of the One China Policy.

That’s why am really having a difficult time seeing this shit show remaining violence free.

You make an excellent point. And therein lieth the rub of the issue! The maturity (or lack thereof) of international diplomacy. China, and some other countries, can do this. Can the U.S.? As I say, this is a long-odds bet. I wouldn't be making it, and I've worked in international relations.

 

[56860]

Here's what China needs to do: publicly announce that it will increase its nuclear stockpile to at least 5000 warheads, and carry out that threat ASAP. Then immediately renounce adherence to no first use policy, and make it abundantly clear that China is willing to go to nuclear annihilation to recover Taiwan.

The only red line Americans understand is one that is backed up by the threat of guaranteed, utter, and unavoidable nuclear annihilation. This is why they have avoided a direct conflict with Russia, all the way through the Cold War to the collapse of the USSR to modern day Ukraine war.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

An invasion of Taiwan will trigger anti-China sanctions in the West very similar to the current anti-Russian sanctions. This is exactly what America wants.

Maybe shooting down Pelosi would be the lesser evil if it only triggers a conflict with the US.

How is TAIWAN similar to Ukraine? One is unrecognized as a country by the UN and under international law. While the other, Ukraine is a sovereign country. The two are not the same, unless you're saying that the EU position was just as empty, vacuous, and a lie.

If the EU goes with their sanctions, then China should also drop their diplomatic neutrality with respect to the conflict in Ukraine and just drop all these pretences.

 

[Frederik_Chopin]

So are there any big movement by the PLA? Where is Shandong and Liaoning currently? Any information from the PLARF, maybe there's movement from the PLAAF? The United States has already deployed some ships, there has to be a response if all those talk wasn't just bluff

 

[Abominable]

Fully agree except for the Rubicon part. That has not yet been crossed so there is still time to avoid this disaster.

Biden can make one phone call and end this right now if he chose to, and I think this is a large part of what this whole stunt is about - domestic politics and brinksmanship within the US Democratic Party.

Biden knows to make the call is to commit personal political suicide for the good of the country and the world; but he still wants to run for President again in 2024. I think Pelosi desperately doesn’t want that but doesn’t have the political capital to prevent it. At least not without starting a full blown civil war within the Democratic Party that would see them destroyed for a generation. So she is playing chicken with war to try and force Biden’s hand.

Crossing the Rubicon = China no longer accepting blatant violations of its sovereignty.

Contrary to what a lot of people are saying, I don't think Americans planned this at all. For decades they have gotten used to the idea that they can send politicians to Taiwan and face no repercussions. I'm sure this was planned to be just another one of those visits.

Just like it took years before African countries could stand up to colonialism, it's taken a long time for China to be able to stand up for Taiwan but it seems that we are here now.

 

[plawolf]

Very interesting as to how this may play out. IF Pelosi goes, stays one night, and doesn't "officially" meet anyone, it might be argued away as just a refueling stop, so to say. This might achieve a "face-saving" situation. But this would be playing long odds!

Sorry but that’s simply impossible.

As soon as Pelosi’s plane lands, Beijing looses all control over the situation. She can do whatever the hell she wants and there is nothing Beijing can do about it at that point short of drone striking her.

For China to allow such a move would require an unprecedented degree of trust in American promises. That was an order of magnitude beyond what was possible during the very best times in Sino-US relations, and these are the polar opposites of those times.

It is frankly unfathomable that Xi or anyone in power in Beijing would trust any assurances made by Biden or Pelosi given the catalogue of previous broken promises (from Beijing’s POV) and the very fact Pelosi came all the way around the world with the sole and express purpose to stir shit up for China.

 

[SAC]

Sorry but that’s simply impossible.

As soon as Pelosi’s plane lands, Beijing looses all control over the situation. She can do whatever the hell she wants and there is nothing Beijing can do about it at that point short of drone striking her.

For China to allow such a move would require an unprecedented degree of trust in American promises. That was an order of magnitude beyond what was possible during the very best times in Sino-US relations, and these are the polar opposites of those times.

It is frankly unfathomable that Xi or anyone in power in Beijing would trust any assurances made by Biden or Pelosi given the catalogue of previous broken promises (from Beijing’s POV) and the very fact Pelosi came all the way around the world with the sole and express purpose to stir shit up for China.

@plawolf. I have lived and worked in the U.S. and China, and dealt with the U.S. military and the PLA. These people are sane. I also understand the U.S. political system. I don't know how this will play out, and perhaps there is an element in me that hopes sanity will prevail. But military people, that have some influence in U.S. political decision-making apparatus, know what conflict will mean and absolutely don't want it to happen.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Patience is going to be very tough to come by when you're constantly being spat on by your bully daring you to do something about it laughing at you at the same time. Can the Chinese people stomach such indignity till then?

Yes, because that's what victory demands.

 

[Kaeshmiri]

Now without saying what you WANT to happen .

I want to ask the esteemed members here as to how many of you here genuinely believe that China WILL take Kinetic measures?

As im observing that increasing no. of members here are predicting China to let this pass and take a short term L for the long term W. If that makes any sense.

 

[Petrolicious88]

Why do so many people seem to think China is bluffing? The US certainly doesn't.

I think there's a less than 1% chance that Pelosi actually attempts to enter Taiwan, but if she does, her plane will be intercepted. I don't understand how anyone can look at the global situation and think China will take an open and blatant violation of it's territory on the chin.

The fact that there is near complete radio silence from the US regime says it all. If this was any other country we'd be hearing 24/7 about how America won't be threatened, China is warmongering, etc. They realise using that tone with China will only make war inevitable. The Americans have realised the Rubicon has been crossed and they are powerless to do anything about it.

If we are talking about killing Pelosi, then let's play this out logically. It would instantly galvanize the US population, congress for certain will respond with both economic and military retaliations. China responds accordingly.
Then their birds go up, China's birds go up, and you have the start of the Taiwan war. This is exactly what the US doesn't want because maintaining the status quo benefits the US. So yes, I agree US needs a way out of this Pelosi fiasco without losing too much face. Democrats are already under political pressure at home due to failing economy.

But China doesn't want to start a war either by killing Pelosi. Do that you might as well go all the way and retake Taiwan due to reasons stated above.