Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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JewPizza said:

Can someone educate me on this issue? Like I know that China has strategic reserves and China can get energy from Russia and Middle East through land. But how reliant is China on the Strait of Malacca to get its energy? Also, couldn't China use its hypersonics to destroy any naval blockade?
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It's overblown. China doesn't rely on imported energy, just oil.
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Production is 4.9 million BPD, coal liquefaction 0.1 million BPD, so 5 million BPD domestic.

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So from 14.5 million BPD, 7 million is 100% secured. And that's enough for China's 2009 peacetime economy with no rationing. Of course in wartime, exports would cease, and so would tourism.

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The Malacca Straits "chokepoint" isn't really one. It's nice to have that oil but not necessary. EU countries are far more vulnerable to Russia.

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Only the coal is domestic.
 
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xypher said:
Not ship sizes, the fleet sizes.
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oh okay that makes more sense
FairAndUnbiased said:
It's overblown. China doesn't rely on imported energy, just oil.
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Production is 4.9 million BPD, coal liquefaction 0.1 million BPD, so 5 million BPD domestic.

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So from 14.5 million BPD, 7 million is 100% secured. And that's enough for China's 2009 peacetime economy with no rationing. Of course in wartime, exports would cease, and so would tourism.

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The Malacca Straits "chokepoint" isn't really one. It's nice to have that oil but not necessary. EU countries are far more vulnerable to Russia.

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Only the coal is domestic.
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I figured it would be something like that
 
FairAndUnbiased

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ACuriousPLAFan said:
Moreover, if China wants to protect those shipping against interdiction by enemy submarines, some PLA warships and warplanes would have to be sent to the Indian Ocean to patrol and hunt for enemy submarines, plus providing convoy protection. This is certainly going to sap away considerable amount of manpower and equipment of the PLA, which by that time would be facing significant pressure from the militaries of the US and her allies in the Pacific Ocean.

Speaking of the Indian Ocean, let me be honest with you all - Unless there is some sort of truce/peace deal between China and India during the war in the Pacific, there is no guarantee that India wouldn't join in the forray of interdicting those shipping that are heading to China. Just look at the Indian Navy and Air Force's frequent boasting about cutting off China ever since relations between China and India gone sour.

Despite how the Indian military is still a few leagues away from the Chinese military, the threa posessed by them should never be discounted nor underestimated. To counter against the Indian military interference would require basically the same steps above, which could be detremental to China's overall war effort.

Pakistan (and to a lesser extent, Bangladesh) certainly can be called upon to distract India from messing with China, but at present, they aren't strong enough nor willing enough to stand up to India like how Russia and China are standing up to the US right now.

I believe that all of these have to be taken into account as well. Which makes me wonder a lot to why people aren't bring these sort of points up.

Quantity itself is a quality in its own right. Therefore IMHO, it would be better if China can pump up the size AND capabilities of the PLAN, PLAAF and PLARF to be at least 1.5 times that of her adversarial counterparts in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Optimal would be 2.
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No need to convoy. They can't choke China's oil because China has domestic production, Russian pipeline imports and electrification/redirection of personal transportation as alternatives. This isn't even mentioning alternative routes.

Soviet Navy situation is totally different. US literally can't fight in Europe without shipping equipment and people over. Interdiction is a direct threat down to the tactical level. Oil blockade on China is a highly time delayed threat at best.

China can also outlast their allies like SK, Japan and India. If India participates in the blockade, they lose their refineries to IRBMs. There's only 23 refineries in India and you can't burn crude in cars directly.

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1 DF-21 hitting a refinery with incendiaries is enough to start an uncontrollable fire. India doesn't make any of the machinery needed to repair the refinery. They wanna roll the dice on their national existence to slightly inconvenience China?
 
BoraTas

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ACuriousPLAFan said:
You made a lot of great points.

However, there is one key factor to consider: Submarines.

Submarines, thanks to their stealthiness, can make direct observation and interdiction very challenging simply by using the water blanket as cover.

Which is why submarines are so effective at hunting convoys during both Atlantic Wars. This is also why the Soviet Navy envisioned that their nuclear attack submarines be sent to the North Atlantic to intercept any NATO reinforcement convoys coming from the US to Europe in case a land war between NATO and Warsaw Pact broke out on Europe.

It is a well known fact that the US and her allies have the best submarines suited for long-range operations, which is absolutely perfect for stopping oil and gas shipping between the Middle East and China.

By distributing those attack submarines in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific Ocean, I believe they have sufficient capabilities of not just facing off with the PLAN, but also interdicting shippings heading towards China.

Of course such actions would have global-scale consequences, but it's not like you can expect the US and her allies to be reasonable at this point, when their combined nuclear arsenal are the largest or 2nd largest. Just look at how arrogant and ignorant they are since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.

(This is in light of reports where nuclear-armed countries in the West, especially in the US, vowed to even nuke countries like India, Brazil and Indonesia if they are getting nuked, just because of the "If I'm going down, I would rather take everyone down with me than leave anyone standing. And I mean EVERYONE." mentality.)

Hence, I believe that submarines are the utmost threat towards the shipping lanes between China and the Middle East. This needs to be look after and effectively countered in case of war.
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The problem is no navy has enough assets to have enough ASW convoys for securing its shipping against subs in the ocean. For example Yuans would easily wreak havoc on American oil shipments to Japan. Though they wouldn't be able to stop it. Their geographical coverage is too low for that. The same goes for China's shipping too. Surface assets would have it better (Though their ship sinking capabilities are questionable with their 8 ASCMs) but they are a lot less survivable. They would be very vulnarable against PLAN's destroyer squadrons and there would be a lot of losses for the USN.
Carriers are their only hope here but carriers would be needed in East Asia against the PLA. The US airpower in East Asia would have a hard time even without dedicating carriers and Burkes to a blockade mission.

So I don't think China is that vulnerable to a blockade. It is vulnerable but that is not a gamechanger. The most important thing is the US can't cause a famine, electricity shortage or cold houses in China by a blockade. It also can't decrease the PLA's fighting capability (directly from a USN publication). Everything else is secondary.
 
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FairAndUnbiased said:
1 DF-21 hitting a refinery with incendiaries is enough to start an uncontrollable fire. India doesn't make any of the machinery needed to repair the refinery. They wanna roll the dice on their national existence to slightly inconvenience China?
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Just look at those clowns in London, Brussels, Paris and Berlin who would rather shoot themselves in the foot because they refused to negotiate a peace deal with Russia on the Ukraine crisis.

Nobody knows if, or rather when, those from the ultra-Jai Hind bunch that are elected through "cesspit democracy" (term coined by a rather popular China-leaning Indian writer on Quora) would be leading the governance of India instead of the more level-headed Jaishankar-type people, would do the exact same stup1d sh1t.

Of course, I'm not claiming that India's participation in the war against China must be significant enough to be a game changer. But still, I made my point.
 
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