Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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watdahek

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niwashi said:
From my knowledge, the PLA made confidential war plans and preparations in 1996, but was halted by a very infamous leak which led to US intervention by sending 2 carrier groups.

China in back in 1996 is a order of magnitude weaker than today; nonetheless PLA back then was seriously preparing for all-out war. Therefore even less the reason to believe that PLA of today had none of that in mind.

When the MoD talked about their determination, I wouldn’t take it lightly. Sadly certain American politicians pretended not to understand the gravity of the situation.
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Exactly, the threat of US intervention deterred China from renewing its civil war in 1996. China today is definitely much better suited to deal with that threat, and I am not completely ruling out a shooting war. I am just suggesting that based on past trends and known Chinese red lines, I do not judge this situation to be serious enough to "force" China into war. Chinese red lines have been pretty clear imo: Taiwan declaring de facto independence, Taiwan receiving sufficient foreign aid and recognition for de facto independence, foreign troops stationed in Taiwan officially, and Taiwan attempting to go nuclear. A pelosi visit is sort of in the 2nd category, but it is not enough imo.
 
Untoldpain

Untoldpain

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coolgod said:
I also didn't bother to get one, big regret now, that's why I'd hope you bring them. Can any other SDF member in Canada bring them?
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I have had my PAL/RPAL since 2016. I would recommend obtaining one in this currently political climate before further restrictions are rolled out by Ottawa. Firearms will only become harder to obtain in Canada as time goes by.
 
clockwork

clockwork

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watdahek said:
I actually do not have a gun license, although I considered getting one before. CBA RCMP blowing my door up because my neighbor reports me for loud music or something.
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All good, I'll bring my Type 97 and we can establish the PLA's 69th Group Army.

All 5 of the gun stores near me are Chinese owned. Talk about sleeper agents.
 
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ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

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watdahek said:
I also do not believe a pelosi visit will "force" China to start a war. First of all, the visit does not fundamentally change the status of Taiwan. In addition, there has been a similar visit in 1997 that also did not turn into hot war.
To deter state leader visits of Taiwan from becoming common place however, PLA will absolutely have actions. A publicized fly-over of WZ-8 over Taiwan and complete ignore of median line in all future air drills seem like reasonable and possibly beneficial escalatory measures to me.
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A WZ-8 flyover, huh? That's pretty funny. And what's a "median line"? Never heard of it, sounds like a completely fabricated concept to me.

No, how about a flyover over Taipei - including where Pelosi's speaking - by armed (possibly nuclear-armed) H-6 bombers. Or how about detonating a nuclear weapon in the waters near Taiwan. That sounds both sufficiently theatrical and an eminently reasonable response to this provocation.
 
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