PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
China should have a goal of normalising further assertions of sovereignty as a result of the visit. This is not the time for a war. The West will have more crises in the future and it will be much weaker relative to China 10 years from now. And even if China is more likely to win than to lose, it's not worth the risk.

China could regularly cross the median line with ships and military planes. There could be an annual exercise in the waters East of Taiwan. The number of nuclear warheads could be declared publicly. China could declare and enforce fishing regulations. It could require foreign ships entering Taiwan waters to notify Beijing. It could intercept Taiwan aircraft over kinmen and Matsu islands and make them part of Chinese airspace.

There are many options short of war. China needs to do something in response, but it doesn't need to be a war.
 

tch1972

Junior Member
I don't see the opportunity here. Sucker punching and sinking one American carrier is great, but what about the other ten? If there's a shooting war with China, you have to plan as if the US would pull every resource it can muster from everywhere on the planet to throw at China. Assume it'll be prepared to throw Europe, the Middle East, and everywhere else to the wolves - if there's a single bullet left over there, it'll ship it to Asia to deploy against China. Inflation, stagflation, European energy crisis are all irrelevant to existing, deployed military force.

Rest assured that there'll be far better opportunities in the future. Whatever tactical openings you think are available today pale before the fact that China's economy is a third bigger than America's today, why have a war today when the war can be had when China's economy is 3X bigger. The best course of action to Pelosi's shenanigans is on two fronts:
  1. Perform whatever suitably dramatic theatrics are needed to respond to the provocation. Armed bomber overflights of Taiwan and things of that nature.
  2. Raise the military budget. If anything good comes out of this situation, it'll be that.

I am not too worry about US carriers. China have more than enough DFs to dealt with them.

I am more concern about USN submarines. I have my doubt on China's ASW capability.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I am not too worry about US carriers. China have more than enough DFs to dealt with them.

I am more concern about USN submarines. I have my doubt on China's ASW capability.
Subs carry only a small number of cruise missiles, which are subsonic and non VLO, which they will need to return to port to rearm. Relying on sub launched cruise missiles is little more than annoyance.

Subs are more dangerous to ships, but need to get very close to use torpedoes. They are good hunters of convoys in the open oceans, but sending them against naval bastions with land based MPAs and ASW helicopter support is just suicide with extra steps.
 

5unrise

Junior Member
Registered Member
I have to quote those widely circulated words: before the army really landed, I didn't even look (上岸之前,看都不看).
Unless they keep my promise, I will not trust the current regime unconditionally.

Americans have no absolute advantage, but they are very clear about the intention of Chinese leaders to avoid conflict. This seemingly tense confrontation may not be so dangerous for Americans. In any case, it will only damage the political prestige of the Communist Party of China.

This method is a joke when public opinion constantly condemns but does not take action.
Let me make it clearer, the official media has been stirring up our emotions time and time again, but where is the action? I am sick and tired of this emotional stirring.I have been numb to propaganda, and my patriotism has been abused without restraint for more than a decade.
Then I can only conclude that the leadership has no courage to take action. They just incite the people from time to time to show that they pretend to be committed to reunification.
I understand the Taiwan issue is a very emotional one, and that you may have been provoked online by some that claim to be Taiwanese. I have no intention to just pile on and magnify the push-back you are getting. But there are certain attitudes and viewpoints you hold with respect to how the current Chinese Government deals with the Taiwan issue that I disagree with. The timing and method of cross-strait resolution should not be driven by short-term psychological and emotional impulses. The resolution, whether it be military or political, needs to be well-grounded in geo-strategic reality. Sometimes, you do bring up some valid strategic reasons why China ought to deal with Taiwan right now, forcefully and militarily, but often it is based on some perceived offenses or basically feelings. Here's the thing: the vast majority of the Chinese people wants - in fact longs - to see unification, but most understand that there are good and bad ways to achieve it, as far as the national interest is concerned.
In my opinion, China has a very good chance to retake Taiwan in the next 100 years, if it plays its cards sensibly. In fact, I don't think China even needs to play its card all that well - just well enough. China possesses the conditions to become the strongest nation on earth, and Taiwan is right next to it. Not only that, in the long-term, China has the potential to undo the unipolar moment and transform our world into a multipolar one, in which China is the hegemon of one pole. But to realise China's potential, its Government needs to make hard choices. It needs to act not on ego and 'face', but submit to reality and circumstances. To some extent, Beijing is well-placed to do that, because of its command economy, indirect democracy, and centralised political system.
I hope you can see why excessive internal pressure from a vocal domestic minority demanding immediate military action is completely counterproductive. This could conceivably lead opportunistic individuals in the Communist Party to try winning mass support by taking a more aggressive foreign policy. This may be good for that individual, and might satiate certain people in the short-term, but could very well derail China's rise in the long-run. And to me, China's rise is very very important.
So, try to be more concerned with whether Beijing's actions make sense, instead of how it feels to you.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
China should have a goal of normalising further assertions of sovereignty as a result of the visit. This is not the time for a war. The West will have more crises in the future and it will be much weaker relative to China 10 years from now. And even if China is more likely to win than to lose, it's not worth the risk.

China could regularly cross the median line with ships and military planes. There could be an annual exercise in the waters East of Taiwan. The number of nuclear warheads could be declared publicly. China could declare and enforce fishing regulations. It could require foreign ships entering Taiwan waters to notify Beijing. It could intercept Taiwan aircraft over kinmen and Matsu islands and make them part of Chinese airspace.

There are many options short of war. China needs to do something in response, but it doesn't need to be a war.
Probably yeah as long as her visit doesn't qualify as an invasion I.e. US military is landing or overflying Chinese territory.

The situation China most needs to avoid is that US can send armed troops to infiltrate Taiwan, because it could quickly lead to a Crimea-like scenario where rebel forces suddenly rise up, anonymously aided by US forces and declare the takeover a fait accompli while immediately staging a referendum to joining the USA.

In the long run, it is true that many more crisis will happen in USA that will deteriorate them even more.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Probably yeah as long as her visit doesn't qualify as an invasion I.e. US military is landing or overflying Chinese territory.

The situation China most needs to avoid is that US can send armed troops to infiltrate Taiwan, because it could quickly lead to a Crimea-like scenario where rebel forces suddenly rise up, anonymously aided by US forces and declare the takeover a fait accompli while immediately staging a referendum to joining the USA.

In the long run, it is true that many more crisis will happen in USA that will deteriorate them even more.
Then the U.S. would have lost whatever advantage they may have diplomatically and even under international law. Any attempt they make to legimatize their action in the U.N. or to cobble support from their usual European allies would be very difficult without coming across as a massive HYPOCRITE to the global world and most importantly to their own woke population.

If that ever happens, Russia will be joined by China in Ukraine and the world will be thrown into WWIII
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I am not too worry about US carriers. China have more than enough DFs to dealt with them.

I am more concern about USN submarines. I have my doubt on China's ASW capability.
most of Chinese near seas are shallow, noisy and filled with random junk. South China Sea is the deepest, with 5000+ meters at the deep end. This is OK for USN subs but it's heavily guarded.
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, thermal layers which reflect sound are complicated because of high heating gradient relative to the water depth. Large subs have distinct signatures and in some cases can be visually seen with bare eyes during the day.

in shallow water like near China, 1960's North Korean midget subs can sink ASW frigates like Cheonan, but SSNs are ironically vulnerable because they are actually longer than the water is deep so they cannot dive at sharp angles without crashing. it would be disadvantageous for USN to send its expensive subs to fight at close range in the shallows against Chinese conventional subs.
 

delta115

Junior Member
Registered Member
Like I said, Pelosi visit ain't gonna change anything much on global scale, US already pull the same stunt last year. There are worse thing that should take to consideration for CPC like US selling advanced weapons to ROC but I don't see much reaction from either side.

China already draw their red line and while US liek to keep testing it, they know the price. Even Taiwan should know that too because any fools should known by the time US, Australia and Japan can mobilized their force strong enough to act, Anything worth defended on Taiwan would be raze to the ground.
 
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