PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[ZeEa5KPul]

You only seem to focus on American motivations and thinking with scant regard for how China is taking this. You just take it for granted China is bluffing and assume it will just do some sabre rattling and call it a day. But Beijing’s credibility is also on the line here. With Xi getting ready for his 3rd term and the PLA funding on Aug 1st, all very important dates and events that Pelosi’s trip is purposefully designed to piss on just to flip her middle finger at China.

The problem is Pelosi has way overplay her hand and bitten off way more than she can chew as neither Xi or China can be seen to just take such an almighty slap in the face like that without response. With tensions already at near historic highs, there isn’t much of the salami sausage left to slice before armed reunification (AR) is all that is left. She has created a situation where neither side can easily back down and worse, she and the Pentagon has now made AR that much more tangible and attractive for Beijing by getting the Reagan involved with her escort.

The PLAAF absolutely has incentive to go for a maximum aggression move against Pelosi now because that would force the carrier to directly engage the PLAAF in a shooting war on China’s doorstep, overextended, exposed and incredibly vulnerable, all but guaranteeing it will get taken out as the opening move of the war.

Without the Reagan, US Pacific forces will be fundamentally kneecapped and won’t be in any position to directly intervene until at least two replacement and reinforcement carriers arrive. Which might as well be never as the PLA would have taken Taiwan way before then.

In the meantime I think China will declare a no fly zone and no sail zone covering Taiwan and much of the second island chain. It won’t actively attack regional US bases, but any US assets that breeches those zones will be fired upon without further warning.

That’s about as favourable a starting position for AR as China could reasonably hope for.

In addition, the war in Ukraine leaves the EU in an uniquely vulnerable position. America was always going to be a lost cause in terms of trade and investment when it comes to AR time, but China absolutely now has leverage to make the EU stay neutral or else their economies and societies will simply collapse if deprived of all Chinese manufacturing and markets on top of Russian raw materials. That’s not even needing to make any threats about Chinese arms or even troops entering the war on Russia’s side.

There is never a perfect time for a major war, but Pelosi has managed to pick near the worst possible time for America and Europe. That makes things extra dicey has it makes it all the more tempting for China to call their bluff and absolutely crush them when they bet so heavily on such a shitty hand.

Yeah, I like the aggression here. At the same time, you write this but think raising the Chinese defense budget to 2%+ of GDP in peace time would rally Americans around a common threat. Gee... I wonder what sinking one of their carriers might do.

 

[plawolf]

Yeah, I like the aggression here. At the same time, you write this but think raising the Chinese defense budget to 2%+ of GDP in peace time would rally Americans around a common threat. Gee... I wonder what sinking one of their carriers might do.

One can aim to play the long game, but one should not automatically pass up golden opportunities from your opponents blatant mistakes in the meantime.

It would be better to maintain the status quo for another decade or so, but if the other side offers up a once in a generation opportunity to shortcut your timeline, you will have to be a fool to pass it up just because it doesn’t fit your original plan.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

One can aim to play the long game, but one should not automatically pass up golden opportunities from your opponents blatant mistakes in the meantime.

It would be better to maintain the status quo for another decade or so, but if the other side offers up a once in a generation opportunity to shortcut your timeline, you will have to be a fool to pass it up just because it doesn’t fit your original plan.

I don't see the opportunity here. Sucker punching and sinking one American carrier is great, but what about the other ten? If there's a shooting war with China, you have to plan as if the US would pull every resource it can muster from everywhere on the planet to throw at China. Assume it'll be prepared to throw Europe, the Middle East, and everywhere else to the wolves - if there's a single bullet left over there, it'll ship it to Asia to deploy against China. Inflation, stagflation, European energy crisis are all irrelevant to existing, deployed military force.

Rest assured that there'll be far better opportunities in the future. Whatever tactical openings you think are available today pale before the fact that China's economy is a third bigger than America's today, why have a war today when the war can be had when China's economy is 3X bigger. The best course of action to Pelosi's shenanigans is on two fronts:

1. Perform whatever suitably dramatic theatrics are needed to respond to the provocation. Armed bomber overflights of Taiwan and things of that nature.
2. Raise the military budget. If anything good comes out of this situation, it'll be that.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Yea, while it seams to be a good opportunity to sink a carrier, I think it's still best for China to deter without getting into actual war.

That would be the A answer, since more time is still preferable (and apparantly from the Guancha team, they are currently building a lot of landing ships, like the 1 to 6 months before normandy as well as a lot of other ships still being built, like the 5-6 052Ds)

 

[Lime]

So why US prefer to lost carrier rather than stop Pelosi's shenanigans.

It's not 20 century. Although US would pull every resource, there is no opportunity to beat China. The industrial output of China is more than 2 times of the US nowadays.

 

[tphuang]

You only seem to focus on American motivations and thinking with scant regard for how China is taking this. You just take it for granted China is bluffing and assume it will just do some sabre rattling and call it a day. But Beijing’s credibility is also on the line here. With Xi getting ready for his 3rd term and the PLA funding on Aug 1st, all very important dates and events that Pelosi’s trip is purposefully designed to piss on just to flip her middle finger at China.

The problem is Pelosi has way overplay her hand and bitten off way more than she can chew as neither Xi or China can be seen to just take such an almighty slap in the face like that without response. With tensions already at near historic highs, there isn’t much of the salami sausage left to slice before armed reunification (AR) is all that is left. She has created a situation where neither side can easily back down and worse, she and the Pentagon has now made AR that much more tangible and attractive for Beijing by getting the Reagan involved with her escort.

The PLAAF absolutely has incentive to go for a maximum aggression move against Pelosi now because that would force the carrier to directly engage the PLAAF in a shooting war on China’s doorstep, overextended, exposed and incredibly vulnerable, all but guaranteeing it will get taken out as the opening move of the war.

Without the Reagan, US Pacific forces will be fundamentally kneecapped and won’t be in any position to directly intervene until at least two replacement and reinforcement carriers arrive. Which might as well be never as the PLA would have taken Taiwan way before then.

In the meantime I think China will declare a no fly zone and no sail zone covering Taiwan and much of the second island chain. It won’t actively attack regional US bases, but any US assets that breeches those zones will be fired upon without further warning.

That’s about as favourable a starting position for AR as China could reasonably hope for.

In addition, the war in Ukraine leaves the EU in an uniquely vulnerable position. America was always going to be a lost cause in terms of trade and investment when it comes to AR time, but China absolutely now has leverage to make the EU stay neutral or else their economies and societies will simply collapse if deprived of all Chinese manufacturing and markets on top of Russian raw materials. That’s not even needing to make any threats about Chinese arms or even troops entering the war on Russia’s side.

There is never a perfect time for a major war, but Pelosi has managed to pick near the worst possible time for America and Europe. That makes things extra dicey has it makes it all the more tempting for China to call their bluff and absolutely crush them when they bet so heavily on such a shitty hand.

China's red line is Taiwan declaring independence. So yes, China can threaten a lot here, but it's not going to start a war. By every metric I look at, they need at least 3 more years before they are ready to fight a major war. Could they get into a conflict today and win it? Based on what Patchwork said, they probably can. But if you are PLA, is this the right time to do it? Absolutely not. I'd be surprised if China initiates a fight before they have 1000 nukes.

And China can get their point across to Taiwan without getting close to war. And no, they don't have the ability to enforce a no fly zone out to second island chain. Since you are so passionate, why don't you explain to me how they can enforce a no fly zone all the way to Guam or even half way to Guam.

 

[plawolf]

China's red line is Taiwan declaring independence. So yes, China can threaten a lot here, but it's not going to start a war. By every metric I look at, they need at least 3 more years before they are ready to fight a major war. Could they get into a conflict today and win it? Based on what Patchwork said, they probably can. But if you are PLA, is this the right time to do it? Absolutely not. I'd be surprised if China initiates a fight before they have 1000 nukes.

And China can get their point across to Taiwan without getting close to war. And no, they don't have the ability to enforce a no fly zone out to second island chain. Since you are so passionate, why don't you explain to me how they can enforce a no fly zone all the way to Guam or even half way to Guam.

You are mistaken if you think formal Declaration of Independence is China’s one and only red line when it comes to Taiwan. That is the most fundamental of red lines that cannot be crossed without war, but there are many other red lines that can trigger a conflict if crossed.

China is not the one going out of its way looking for trouble. It has said it won’t just sit back and allow Pelosi’s visit and it seems you expect China to just back down rather than stand their ground when push comes to shove.

China doesn’t want to go provoke a conflict now, but nor are they afraid of one. That’s the bit Americans never seem to get about China or even the rest of the world even when it has been so freshly reminded in Ukraine. These are not wars of choice for the likes of Russia and China. That means you don’t get to chose to only fight when the odds are overwhelmingly in your favour.

It’s also funny you seem to believe that silly CIA fact book nonsense about China only having 300 nukes, or worse yet, as if that would matter even if true. You think America is going to just hold back after seeing 2-300 of its top cities erased off the map and let Russia become the next superpower by default? It doesn’t matter if China has 100 or 100,000 nukes, any nuclear exchange between China and America will result in global MAD unless you got a time stone to find the one in millions of scenarios where that magically doesn’t happen once the first mushroom cloud goes up.

China might be hard pressed to go toe to toe against USN carriers out in the deep pacific just now, but Taiwan isn’t in the deep pacific and nor is the Reagan.

Had the US played it smart and sent her deep into the pacific as an ace in the hole and started to redeploy other carriers to the region it might have given Beijing reason to moderate its response. But sticking the Reagan in China’s face like it’s 1996 again is just so moronic China will have to be equally blinkered to not seriously consider taking the Americans up on the giant strategic gift this foolish posturing presents China.

As for the no fly zone, well firstly whoever said anything about Guam?

Secondly, you seem to be completely ignoring the core purpose of such a no fly zone and instead only think about meaningless salami slicing at the edges.

The point of the no fly zone is to give the PLA as much advantage as possible while depriving the US of options.

A no fly zone means no civilian air traffic, massively easing targeting. Basically anything that flies or sails which does not squawk PLA IFF is a valid target. No need to mess around.

The US can skirt the edges as much as they like to claim Twitter likes and Reddit gold, but push deeper in to have any actual impact on the Taiwan campaign and you are J20 and DF26 bait. No arms shipments or flying AWACS and drones at edge of international airspace providing passive sensor support.

 

[plawolf]

I don't see the opportunity here. Sucker punching and sinking one American carrier is great, but what about the other ten? If there's a shooting war with China, you have to plan as if the US would pull every resource it can muster from everywhere on the planet to throw at China. Assume it'll be prepared to throw Europe, the Middle East, and everywhere else to the wolves - if there's a single bullet left over there, it'll ship it to Asia to deploy against China. Inflation, stagflation, European energy crisis are all irrelevant to existing, deployed military force.

Rest assured that there'll be far better opportunities in the future. Whatever tactical openings you think are available today pale before the fact that China's economy is a third bigger than America's today, why have a war today when the war can be had when China's economy is 3X bigger. The best course of action to Pelosi's shenanigans is on two fronts:

1. Perform whatever suitably dramatic theatrics are needed to respond to the provocation. Armed bomber overflights of Taiwan and things of that nature.
2. Raise the military budget. If anything good comes out of this situation, it'll be that.

By time American could realistically redeploy 2-3 of the remainder of its carriers the mission would have changed from defending Taiwan to invading Taiwan. That’s an many orders of magnitudes more difficult and costly endeavour that would make Operation Downfall seem easy and cheap in comparison.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

You are mistaken if you think formal Declaration of Independence is China’s one and only red line when it comes to Taiwan. That is the most fundamental of red lines that cannot be crossed without war, but there are many other red lines that can trigger a conflict if crossed.

China is not the one going out of its way looking for trouble. It has said it won’t just sit back and allow Pelosi’s visit and it seems you expect China to just back down rather than stand their ground when push comes to shove.

China doesn’t want to go provoke a conflict now, but nor are they afraid of one. That’s the bit Americans never seem to get about China or even the rest of the world even when it has been so freshly reminded in Ukraine. These are not wars of choice for the likes of Russia and China. That means you don’t get to chose to only fight when the odds are overwhelmingly in your favour.

It’s also funny you seem to believe that silly CIA fact book nonsense about China only having 300 nukes, or worse yet, as if that would matter even if true. You think America is going to just hold back after seeing 2-300 of its top cities erased off the map and let Russia become the next superpower by default? It doesn’t matter if China has 100 or 100,000 nukes, any nuclear exchange between China and America will result in global MAD unless you got a time stone to find the one in millions of scenarios where that magically doesn’t happen once the first mushroom cloud goes up.

China might be hard pressed to go toe to toe against USN carriers out in the deep pacific just now, but Taiwan isn’t in the deep pacific and nor is the Reagan.

Had the US played it smart and sent her deep into the pacific as an ace in the hole and started to redeploy other carriers to the region it might have given Beijing reason to moderate its response. But sticking the Reagan in China’s face like it’s 1996 again is just so moronic China will have to be equally blinkered to not seriously consider taking the Americans up on the giant strategic gift this foolish posturing presents China.

As for the no fly zone, well firstly whoever said anything about Guam?

Secondly, you seem to be completely ignoring the core purpose of such a no fly zone and instead only think about meaningless salami slicing at the edges.

The point of the no fly zone is to give the PLA as much advantage as possible while depriving the US of options.

A no fly zone means no civilian air traffic, massively easing targeting. Basically anything that flies or sails which does not squawk PLA IFF is a valid target. No need to mess around.

The US can skirt the edges as much as they like to claim Twitter likes and Reddit gold, but push deeper in to have any actual impact on the Taiwan campaign and you are J20 and DF26 bait. No arms shipments or flying AWACS and drones at edge of international airspace providing passive sensor support.

What you've described resembles an even fight to me. Let's put aside the very pertinent question of what happens after China achieves a local victory with the bulk of US fighting forces out of theatre and still intact. Why should China get into an even fight to begin with? I don't want China to get into a well balanced boxing match with the US, I want it to stomp the US with impunity.

By time American could realistically redeploy 2-3 of the remainder of its carriers the mission would have changed from defending Taiwan to invading Taiwan. That’s an many orders of magnitudes more difficult and costly endeavour that would make Operation Downfall seem easy and cheap in comparison.

No, to Hell with Taiwan. The US mission then would be to blockade China's far SLOCs, and harass and attrite the Chinese military from just out of range. In other words, slowly sap it of strength over years. Why should China subject itself to that just so it can "hold" Taiwan? Is Taiwan going somewhere?

 

[sunnymaxi]

It’s also funny you seem to believe that silly CIA fact book nonsense about China only having 300 nukes

i think we have discussed before. it is naïve to think, China didn't produce a single warhead in past 20 or 30 years. it is a state secret. but i think, this is the right time China should announce their actual nuclear arsenal.

China actually possess way more nuclear warheads than this number claimed by the western media.

edit - but fully agreed with tphuang statement. China still needs 3-4 years before moving on Taiwan. MIC2025 is about to complete and some other high tech bottleneck need to resolve.