PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[ZeEa5KPul]

I don't want to carry out personal attacks, but your previous reply seems to show the view that China's industry will be destroyed by the blockade and bombing of the United States and then fall into failure.

Considering that the United States has deployed a large number of valuable military assets on the most dangerous front, it is worth considering whether the strike effect you envisaged can be achieved, and this kind of thing seems to should be discussed in another topic.

So long as enemy assets remain outside your reach, he can attack you with impunity and you would have no response but to weather these attacks as best you can. I know that Chinese martial culture praises "defensive" war - a backward mindset that should be abandoned entirely - but turtling up and taking punches with no possibility of counterattack of your own is not sound even by the poverty standards of defensive war.

 

[zhangjim]

Then you misunderstand the situation completely. The DPRK is safe from America not just because it has a handful of nuclear weapons but because it's worthless. America losing one city to snuff out North Korea is not an exchange worth making. North Korea is not worth destroying, China is. If an American president had the option of annihilating China forever and losing three or four major cities in a meagre retaliatory attack, what makes you think he wouldn't take that opportunity? That's an excellent exchange in the US's favour.

For a Chinese leader to not understand this and persist with minimal deterrence is monstrous negligence. The statement that China is worth defending should not be controversial.

Then it's a shame the Americans didn't do it in the 1990s.
The person who made this decision may become the greatest president in American history, but another possibility is that when he shows this idea of "once and for all", everyone will hold him down."A few cities" is worthwhile for the country as a whole, but it is different for Wall Street, Silicon Valley and ordinary voters.
I suggest you share your views on the topic "PLA strike strategies in Westpac HIC".

 

[Fedupwithlies]

So long as enemy assets remain outside your reach, he can attack you with impunity and you would have no response but to weather these attacks as best you can. I know that Chinese martial culture praises "defensive" war - a backward mindset that should be abandoned entirely - but turtling up and taking punches with no possibility of counterattack of your own is not sound even by the poverty standards of defensive war.

This you?
https://www.reddit.com/r/Sino/comments/w42dg2/_/ih1ao8j

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

"A few cities" is worthwhile for the country as a whole, but it is different for Wall Street, Silicon Valley and ordinary voters.

Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and ordinary voters don't make decisions on the use of nuclear weapons.

I suggest you share your views on the topic "PLA strike strategies in Westpac HIC".

I have, on occasion. I've found that this forum - aside from the biofilm of trolls infecting it - is full of stubborn people in love with the sound of their own voice. I'm not going to knock them too hard, I could with some justice be accused of being the same way. However, I don't feel like shouting my ideas into the void (which is essentially what we're doing) at present.

I won't convince anyone and no one will convince me.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

This you?
https://www.reddit.com/r/Sino/comments/w42dg2/_/ih1ao8j

Yes. I hope you understand the difference between trash talk for Reddit upd00ts and a serious discussion of war.

Yes, the US would suffer grievous losses in a war with China today, but they wouldn't be fatal. Not until China can destroy forward deployed US forces while suffering minimal losses, and then destroy whatever forces the US musters to help/avenge them.

 

[zhangjim]

Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and ordinary voters don't make decisions on the use of nuclear weapons.

Should I remind you that nuclear weapons are not launched at the push of a button by the president. Taking control of Trump's nuclear codes after he loses re-election is on the table.

 

[Blitzo]

Just throwing in my hat here -- I fully agree with @ZeEa5KPul's statements on this matter.


I think everyone's perceptions of how the PLA would react to this Pelosi visit (if she does indeed visit) has been calibrated based on assumptions that the PLA has escalation superiority and that anything short of using lethal military force in anger, would result in a significant net negative impact on China's geopolitical interests.

There are two fundamental questions that people on opposing sides of this discussion seem to be on the opposite sides of:
1. At present, between the US military and the PLA, which side holds escalation dominance in context of the geopolitical priorities of each side vis-a-vis Taiwan?
2. If China does use lethal military force in anger, would the potential variety of outcomes of such a course of action be more beneficial or more damaging to China's long term geopolitical interests versus if China did not use lethal force in anger? (note -- "not using lethal force in anger" does not equate with "not carrying out a significant display of military force")?

 

[Fedupwithlies]

Yes. I hope you understand the difference between trash talk for Reddit upd00ts and a serious discussion of war.

Yes, the US would suffer grievous losses in a war with China today, but they wouldn't be fatal. Not until China can destroy forward deployed US forces while suffering minimal losses, and then destroy whatever forces the US musters to help/avenge them.

Are we being serious here? I lost track sometime three pages ago when people started suggesting global nuclear war as an outcome for this Pelosi issue.

I'm being very belligerent tonight. I'll log off and go to bed.

I recognize the frustration of being *almost* but not quite ready pay unto the west what they deserve, for both the people for China and the members here rootin' for Putin, but things are moving. Bad guys sometimes win the battle. The war goes on.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Should I remind you that nuclear weapons are not launched at the push of a button by the president. Taking control of Trump's nuclear codes after he loses re-election is on the table.
View attachment 94347

This presumes so much. First, that whatever congressional mechanism with its hand on its nuclear button calculates differently from the president in my example. Second, and this is the real whopper, that the US congress can get anything done, let alone anything as significant as this.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Just throwing in my hat here -- I fully agree with @ZeEa5KPul's statements on this matter.

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I recognize the frustration of being *almost* but not quite ready pay unto the west what they deserve, for both the people for China and the members here rootin' for Putin, but things are moving. Bad guys sometimes win the battle. The war goes on.

Amen to that. It isn't even a battle, though; the bad guys have barely won a skirmish here. They would win the war if China lets something this ultimately trivial derail the Rise. They will pay dearly for this and everything else, but now's not the time.