PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[ZeEa5KPul]

America didn’t enter WWII with the strongest military but ended it with it because of its industrial might. Today it’s China who has that industrial might. America’s military power is inherited.

There's a term that perfectly describes the error you and others responding to me are making: cargo culting. Mistaking effects for causes. In this particular case, this turn of good fortune happened for the US because its homeland was essentially outside any belligerent's range and it was impossible to blockade. Neither of these holds true for China.

China has the largest industry in the world today? Great. Let's see how long it can keep it in a war.

It’s already struggling to replenish weapons being sent into Ukraine, you think they can out produce China once China moves to war economic mode?

This is as stupid as someone saying "When I go to prison, I'm going to pump so much iron." You know why it's stupid? Because weights exist outside prison. If China can produce all this materiel in war time, why not expend a fraction of that effort in peace time so it can shape the environment around it to its liking and deter any war?

With Russian natural resources and Chinese manufacturing capabilities, it’s America that’s on the slow road to ruin if it tries such a silly strategy

Yeah, I guess Russia might be on side if Putin is still president - wouldn't bet my life on it, though. And who knows what comes after Putin.

Is America and Europe ready for no more manufactured goods?

Yes. In case you hadn't noticed, those stupid cattle will happily follow their leaders to a slaughterhouse if they get told bedtime stories about Freedom & Democracy(tm). Even if they're not, wars take on a life of their own. Never start a war that you aren't absolutely certain you can finish.

Far more so with Taiwan in Chinese hands acting as the shield to China’s industrial heartland instead of the dagger pointed to it before.

I fail to see how China holding Taiwan gets the US off Japan, Guam, Hawaii, Australia, et al.

Together, Russia and China holds the world island and the bulk of the world’s natural resources. A long attritional campaign favours China far more than America.

You're assuming Russia is committed and stays committed. That's not something I want to bet China's future on.

Well in that case you better just forever live under America’s boot because China will never aim for such ridiculous global homogeny.

See, this mentality is the greatest danger China faces. This kind of thinking is the reason China is under America's boot today and was under Britain's boot yesterday. This "all I want is to be left alone" is the ideology of shopkeepers, not great powers. Why shouldn't China aim for hegemony today and what makes hegemony ridiculous?

There's an iron law of history that China had better understand or it's heading for another fall: The world is not going to leave it alone. Evil people will try to destroy it. It must expand to counter them. Good must expand so evil cannot.

Oh not that stupid nonsense again. If you believe that 1.4% figure I got a bridge in Africa to sell you.

I don't care what the actual figure is. Whatever it is, it needs to be higher.

China should build J-20s under blockade and bombardment. Your reaction: Good stuff!
China should spend more money to arm and defend itself. Your reaction: Madness!!

The reality is China is going as fast as it can in pretty much all areas. It has been since Trump. While money is not an issue it’s not reason to be wasteful and stupid with your accounting disclosures.

It is going as fast as it can with the money it's spending. Spend more money!

So you want to nuke Taiwan later rather than take it easily when given an unexpected chance to do so?

You know perfectly well the point I'm making - at least I hope you do. China does not have an unexpected chance to do so. What did Pelosi's visit change about the size of the PLARF's stockpile, or the PLAAF's inventory, or the PLAN's tonnage? Nothing. In every way that matters, absolutely nothing's changed.

You seem to think the Reagan sailing is an opportunity. Fine. Tell me what China then does about

1. The Gerald R. Ford
2. The George H.W. Bush
3. The Harry S. Truman
4. The John C. Stennis
5. The George Washington
6. The Abraham Lincoln
7. The Theodore Roosevelt
8. The Carl Vinson
9. The Dwight D. Eisenhower
10. The Nimitz

China using the world's largest shipbuilding capacity to build a fleet that surpasses this? Nonsense, of course. No, the way China fights should be to wage guerilla warfare and eat rats in the jungle.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

What bombing campaign? The US may be able to keep naval superiority in locations farther away from China, but the moment they threaten Chinese sovereign territory, the nukes *will* come out, NFU or no NFU.

Until China builds nuclear parity with the US and wires everything up in a LoW system, this is not a credible threat.

There is no slow attrition strategy possible against a larger country with way bigger industry and economy. Its like thinking Imperial Japan could have just slowly attrited USA down in ww2. Even the Japanese admirals were not that insane.

There's a trivially easy attritional strategy against any country that's in range of your guns and you out of range of theirs.

US stopping all oil from the middle East? So in other words, US will open a new front in Iran, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan? Who combined have armies totaling more than a million men?

Who combined have naval tonnage of about bupkis.

Zero trade with Europe? So America will also feed, give medicine and clothe the Europeans when winter comes? With goods from where?

Who said anything about feeding Europe? Europe can go to Hell, Japan can go to Hell, Korea can go to Hell. Everybody can go to Hell, the only thing that matters is bringing China down.

Bombing campaign using what? The only thing that has a high chance of getting a few hits in without the pilot kamikazing is a B2 with Jassm. Where will the semiconductors and money to build that many Jassm come from? How many B2s are there in total and how fast can US industry replace them as they're getting hunted down?

If you think the volume of fire the US can land on China is small, the number China can land on the US is zero.

If after that they're using Pacific Islands to launch attacks, China will redirect every shipyard to the military, like America did in ww2, train another million troops and then wrest them island by island.

Read what I said above about the guy bragging that he'll get jacked when he goes to prison.

 

[texx1]

Yesterday, Taiwanese coast guard seized a mainland fishing boat for breaching the median line of Taiwan Strait.

Carrying out provocative fishery enforcement during such sensitive time suggests Taiwan is not really worried about the much publicized warnings issued by mainland government. If Taiwan is concerned about a potential war, it wouldn't dare to openly mock PRC like that.

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台海巡队又以“越界”为由查扣大陆渔船 并扣押5名船员

Taiwan Coast Guard seizes another mainland fishing boat for "crossing the median line" and detains 5 crew members

 

[Lime]

Yesterday, Taiwanese coast guard seized a mainland fishing boat for breaching the median line of Taiwan Strait.

Carrying out provocative fishery enforcement during such sensitive time suggests Taiwan is not really worried about the much publicized warnings issued by mainland government. If Taiwan is concerned about a potential war, it wouldn't dare to openly mock PRC like that.

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Taiwan Coast Guard seizes another mainland fishing boat for "crossing the median line" and detains 5 crew members

No one care. Actually these fishmen are employed by Taiwan company. TW government always like to do this in order to show their tough attitude when they get mainland's pressure. The regularity can be found through all this kinds of events.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

There is no slow attrition strategy possible against a larger country with way bigger industry and economy. Its like thinking Imperial Japan could have just slowly attrited USA down in ww2. Even the Japanese admirals were not that insane.

US stopping all oil from the middle East? So in other words, US will open a new front in Iran, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan? Who combined have armies totaling more than a million men?

Zero trade with Europe? So America will also feed, give medicine and clothe the Europeans when winter comes? With goods from where?

Bombing campaign using what? The only thing that has a high chance of getting a few hits in without the pilot kamikazing is a B2 with Jassm. Where will the semiconductors and money to build that many Jassm come from? How many B2s are there in total and how fast can US industry replace them as they're getting hunted down?

If US doesn't win the decisive war and destroy the Navy quickly so they can land on Taiwan, China will switch to war time industry and rapidly build out new platforms. The US economy is far more crippled without access to China than vice versa, especially since any industry China lost because of reduced trade with Europe can be retooled to make bombers, bombs and missiles.

Then, its just a matter of island hopping using China's industrial might. If US makes the fight global, they paint a target on every base they have.

If they're using Korea to launch attacks, China can invade it and hand the keys over to Kim.

If after that they're using Japan to launch attacks, China can spend awhile printing out missiles, reduce all Japanese infrastructure to rubble, then jointly invade with Russia.

If after that they're using Pacific Islands to launch attacks, China will redirect every shipyard to the military, like America did in ww2, train another million troops and then wrest them island by island.

This will continue until the mainland US is reached, and a peace agreement signed to prevent all out nuclear war.

Edit: in fact, just consider the question of semiconductors needed for all forms of military tech alone. China controls the raw material supply almost completely, semiconductors themselves are split roughly evenly between Mainland China, Taiwan China and South Korea. When war breaks out, Taiwan will be ordered to cease all deliveries to America, and South Korea, if they join the war will get completely flattened. Even if Kim throws and China doesn't invade in force, SK will be bombed out and in no position to make semiconductors. That means effectively, as war starts China will be the only country in the world even capable of making semiconductors on a large scale, and therefore the only one that can replenish modern goods and advanced weapons in the long run.

SK and Japan is not energy or resource self sufficient, not even close. They will regress to medieval times without imports. It's not like China where oil being cut off is OK because 1. domestic production 2. Russian pipeline 3. people can buy electric bikes or walk because of infrastructure from the 1980's and 90's 4. EVs. Japanese and Korean cities are very car centric and there's no pipelines from allies to them. It's import oil/food/resources or starve.

Just let them know that China won't get in the way of their energy and resource access if they stay neutral as the carrot, and remind them that China has never placed sanctions on any country - so far. And you have made the stick abundantly clear. In this case, there's no fantasy of say conquering North Korea and beating the PLA because they don't have Korean spirit. They'd have to be able to invade China to stop a remote missile based blockade of hunting down tankers which are much less protected and maneuverable than carriers. If they're ordered to, they'd go independent.

I don't see the opportunity here. Sucker punching and sinking one American carrier is great, but what about the other ten?

3 of them are in drydock, 5 of them are fitting out with inexperienced sailors or in pierside maintenance requiring weeks-months of preparation to be ready for deployment, only 4 are deployed

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and Bush is only going to relieve Truman.

there's usually only 3 CSGs operationally deployed, 0-2 underway to either relieve or reinforce, 3 with their reactors out, rest at pier/training. That's why surge capability is only 5 carriers.

For operationally relevant carriers, it's just Reagan and Lincoln. 50%.

Or if DF-26s are already taking aim, 100%, and it'll be months before Truman/Bush can get to Westpac because they also won't be able to use Suez or Malacca (easy chokepoint and food for DF-26) and would need to sail around Africa and Australia through the treacherous southern ocean.

That's why conventional carriers are actually pretty good. They have very high uptime and mostly require light maintenance with only 20-25% of time being spent in maintenance vs. 30%+. They're very good for China's operations.

 

[texx1]

Actually these fishmen are employed by Taiwan company.

I would appreciate it if you could post relevant articles that mention arrested mainland fishermen in this case are employed by a Taiwanese company. I checked out a few reports about this case from several different media sources, none of them said they are employed by Taiwan.

 

[Lime]

I would appreciate it if you could post relevant articles that mention arrested mainland fishermen in this case are employed by a Taiwanese company. I checked out a few reports about this case from several different media sources, none of them said they are employed by Taiwan.

Of course no one said because of sovereignty, but it actually the truth. Not all company in China are state owned. TW company has some privilege in China. moreover, mainland government limit these fishmen where and when to go fishing, there will be a fine if they not obey this. But they still do this and don't care about the punishment.
The mainland-taiwan relationship is very complex, actually some bosses or workers from taiwan work in mainland are spies. Although I don't want to admit it but it is the truth. I don't think mainland government will make it public before unifying.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

3 of them are in drydock, 5 of them are fitting out with inexperienced sailors or in pierside maintenance requiring weeks-months of preparation to be ready for deployment, only 4 are deployed

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and Bush is only going to relieve Truman.

there's usually only 3 CSGs operationally deployed, 0-2 underway to either relieve or reinforce, 3 with their reactors out, rest at pier/training. That's why surge capability is only 5 carriers.

For operationally relevant carriers, it's just Reagan and Lincoln. 50%.

Or if DF-26s are already taking aim, 100%, and it'll be months before Truman/Bush can get to Westpac because they also won't be able to use Suez or Malacca (easy chokepoint and food for DF-26) and would need to sail around Africa and Australia through the treacherous southern ocean.

And what can China do to prevent or even just disrupt their mustering? Nothing. You say "it'll be months before..." Okay, what happens after those months pass? Peacetime tempos are utterly meaningless, they're all going to be sent against China at once.

That's why conventional carriers are actually pretty good. They have very high uptime and mostly require light maintenance with only 20-25% of time being spent in maintenance vs. 30%+. They're very good for China's operations.

That's great! It's too bad China has just one proper conventional carrier. Oh, wait, it doesn't even have one, that one's still under construction.

 

[9dashline]

And what can China do to prevent or even just disrupt their mustering? Nothing. You say "it'll be months before..." Okay, what happens after those months pass? Peacetime tempos are utterly meaningless, they're all going to be sent against China at once.

That's great! It's too bad China has just one proper conventional carrier. Oh, wait, it doesn't even have one, that one's still under construction.

You sorta proved the point of the accelerationists, it benefits America the most to take the total war to China's doorsteps as soon as possible, and this infact is what I surmise is the true intent of the US with the Pelosi trip in August....

America cannot afford to wait until China has 6 carriers and figured out homegrown EUV or sub 5nm IC fab or whatever....

US was never going to give up its hegemony without a kinetic full scale fight.

I just dont understand why people always think its "someday in the future"... I mean it had to happen, and August 2022 is as good a date as any

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

You sorta proved the point of the accelerationists, it benefits America the most to take the total war to China's doorsteps as soon as possible, and this infact is what I surmise is the true intent of the US with the Pelosi trip in August....

America cannot afford to wait until China has 6 carriers and figured out homegrown EUV or sub 5nm IC fab or whatever....

US was never going to give up its hegemony without a kinetic full scale fight.

I just dont understand why people always think its "someday in the future"... I mean it had to happen, and August 2022 is as good a date as any

I'm not going to make an EROEI joke, I'm just going to point out the silliness of your position as clearly and straightforwardly as I can. If America wanted to start a war, it would just prepare itself and attack. It wouldn't be trying to bait China, it wouldn't be talking out of both sides of its mouth, it wouldn't have one branch of its failure of a government try to put out the fire started by another branch.

It would just do it.