All of this stunt before the 20th Party Congress, it's all so needlessly provocative in the most sensitive of times
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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When was the last time these South Koreans exhibited or accomplished military prowess of considerable success in recent memory or that was achieved in the 20th or 21st century?
I really don't understand why the often quoted remarks or slight against the PLA's lack of "combat experience" isn't being applied against South Korea, Japan, and the tiny island of Taiwan?
What gives those wannabe powers certain advantages over China’s PLA? Training? Weapons?
South Korea going to war with the Chinese Army in North Korea would be a disaster.
It would force the US Army into a land war with the Chinese Army - which the US Army cannot win.
keep in mind that China and NK does have mutual defense treaty. This is the only one China has with any nation. So if SK does get involved, NK will for sure be attacking SK. That would be a disaster for South Korea. None of those high end weapons are going to matter when Seoul is so close to NK artillery. As such, SK joining in against China is a non starter.
@Patchwork_Chimera Based on what we have seen regarding the events, reactions and responses resulted from the announcement of Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan in August, and the tension ramping up quickly across the Taiwan Strait and the Western Pacific, I would like to ask you regarding what people really think of these series of events (in the intelligence circle), in particular those around the DC circle.
Do you think Pelosi would be adamant on her planned visit to Taiwan?
If so, what do you think of the scenarios that would happen?
What does the US think of China's possible responses towards Pelosi's visit?
In response, how would the US act, back at home and in the Western Pacific?
Most importantly, what is the possibility of the confrontation between China and the US over Pelosi's visit causing a military conflict between the militaries of the two superpowers?
Plus, whether said conflict between these two militaries caused by Pelosi's visit would be limited in scale and time, or would it spiral out of control into an all-out global war, even possibly resulting in a nuclear one?
We could very well be heading into the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis right now.
(Side note: The US carrier strike group that conducted stopover in Singapore has left in the northeast direction. High possibility heading towards Taiwan: )
Do you think Pelosi would be adamant on her planned visit to Taiwan?
If so, what do you think of the scenarios that would happen?
What does the US think of China's possible responses towards Pelosi's visit?
In response, how would the US act, back at home and in the Western Pacific?
Most importantly, what is the possibility of the confrontation between China and the US over Pelosi's visit causing a military conflict between the militaries of the two superpowers?
Plus, whether said conflict between these two militaries caused by Pelosi's visit would be limited in scale and time, or would it spiral out of control into an all-out global war, even possibly resulting in a nuclear one?
We could very well be heading into the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis right now.
(Side note: The US carrier strike group that conducted stopover in Singapore has left in the northeast direction. High possibility heading towards Taiwan: )
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Taiwan fails to report PLA drone’s 1st island-circulating flight, ‘reflects great vulnerability’
By Published: Jul 27, 2022 06:11 PM Updated: Jul 27, 2022 06:06 PM
A TB-001 Twin-Tailed Scorpion armed reconnaissance drone is on display at an unmanned intelligent equipment exhibition organized by PLA Joint Logistics Support Force in early 2022. Photo: Screenshot from CCTV
After the Japanese Defense Ministry spotted an armed reconnaissance drone of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) flying above waters to the east side of the island of Taiwan on Monday, Taiwan media reported that the PLA aircraft went and made a full circle flight around the island of Taiwan for the first time.
Chinese mainland analysts said on Wednesday that Taiwan’s defense authority’s failure to report the drone’s activity exposed the island’s defense vulnerabilities against drones, a great vulnerability the PLA can abuse in a possible cross-Straits conflict.
A TB-001 drone of the PLA flew to the eastern side of the island of Taiwan, crossed the Bashi Channel and continued to fly along the alleged median line of the Taiwan Straits, marking that the drone made a clockwise circle around the island on Monday, the first day of Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang military drills, media on the island reported on Tuesday.
This is also the first time a PLA drone has made a full circle flight around the island of Taiwan, the report said.
The report came after Japan's Ministry of Defense Joint Staff said in a press release that a TB-001 armed reconnaissance drone of the PLA flew across the Miyako Strait and to the eastern side of the island of Taiwan on Monday.
According to a flight path provided by the Japanese release, the TB-001 went further south and headed toward the Bashi Channel without returning, which is consistent with the report made by Taiwan media.
However, Taiwan’s defense authority only reported that a Y-8 reconnaissance plane and a J-11 fighter jet of the PLA entered Taiwan's self-proclaimed southwest air defense identification zone on Monday, which means the it had failed to detect the TB-001 drone, or it intentionally did not report it, observers said.
By making a full circle around Taiwan, the TB-001 drone displayed its outstanding range, possibly carried out reconnaissance on Taiwan’s Han Kuang drills, and sent a warning to “Taiwan independence” secessionist and foreign interference forces, which comes amid US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's planned Taiwan trip, a Beijing-based military expert who requested anonymity told the Global Times on Wednesday.
Taiwan armed forces’ failure to report the PLA drone activity exposed that there are huge loopholes in their air defense systems. This showed that the PLA can potentially send drones to Taiwan without facing major threats in a possible cross-Straits conflict. These drones are of lower cost and do not have pilots, giving an advantage, the expert said.
The drone only conducted reconnaissance in Monday’s mission, but if a real conflict were to break out, countless drones can carry out all sorts of missions including reconnaissance, attack, target indication, damage evaluation, electronic warfare and communications relay, the expert said.
It again showed the great military strength gap between the Chinese mainland and the island of Taiwan, and that the PLA has overwhelming advantages that can safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, analysts said.
I'm not very clear about the judgment of military professionals, but at least we can see that the South Korean people do have very fanatical emotions.
They are still harping on the view that "PLA has not defeated any rivals for decades, and can only rely on the advantage of numbers", which is undoubtedly an important source of their self-confidence.When it comes to their past history, Koreans can produce extremely proud self-confidence as long as they constantly repeat the few victories they have won.The Japanese are more arrogant, which indeed has historical reasons, but the Japanese also seem to be excessively addicted to these victory with a seriously uneven balance of power.
Another source of confidence is weapons.For them, it is obvious that the high technology of the free world is better than "made in China".Similarly, the "freedom fighters" trained by the United States should certainly be stronger.
The last and most important source of confidence is, of course, the United States.Many netizens in countries with contradictions with China share the same idea, that is, Americans will attack China for them. They just need to hide behind and help pick up the spoils.In other words, since the Americans support them, fighting with them is an enemy of the United States.
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South Korea has probably somewhat better maintained military than North Korea, since China didn't put much effort in helping them, and they didn't even want much help either.
But if China itself joins in then SK is just screwed. The PLA is not just large, it also has a generational advantage in almost everything vs SK. And with the KPA, China doesn't lack for numbers to hold lines.
US hardly excels at ground war, even if they're closer to China in tech, good luck convincing US soldiers to charge into enemies with stronger firepower. Plus, how would American soldiers even be able to make it to Korea in the first place when the entire area is within Chinese ground based anti shipping missiles? A 500 000 man US army might be able to halt a Korea invasion, but unless said 500 000 men are able to swim through the miyako straits, good luck getting them there.
Tbh the SK leader looks like a big bootlicker but in reality has his own aspirations. He's been trying to lay down a plan for peaceful reunification which surely contradicts US plans. In a way, he might be the Lukashenko of the West. He appears as an loyal idiot, says idiotic things, but in uses it as a cover to ensure South Korea will be given maximum benefits while avoiding major risks for the Korean people.
If or maybe now, when, a war starts, I feel like Yoon would be one of the loudest at condemning China and every day talking about his country's readiness to help America win etc. But, in terms of actions, he would sit there doing nothing except letting US troops move through his country.
But if China itself joins in then SK is just screwed. The PLA is not just large, it also has a generational advantage in almost everything vs SK. And with the KPA, China doesn't lack for numbers to hold lines.
US hardly excels at ground war, even if they're closer to China in tech, good luck convincing US soldiers to charge into enemies with stronger firepower. Plus, how would American soldiers even be able to make it to Korea in the first place when the entire area is within Chinese ground based anti shipping missiles? A 500 000 man US army might be able to halt a Korea invasion, but unless said 500 000 men are able to swim through the miyako straits, good luck getting them there.
Tbh the SK leader looks like a big bootlicker but in reality has his own aspirations. He's been trying to lay down a plan for peaceful reunification which surely contradicts US plans. In a way, he might be the Lukashenko of the West. He appears as an loyal idiot, says idiotic things, but in uses it as a cover to ensure South Korea will be given maximum benefits while avoiding major risks for the Korean people.
If or maybe now, when, a war starts, I feel like Yoon would be one of the loudest at condemning China and every day talking about his country's readiness to help America win etc. But, in terms of actions, he would sit there doing nothing except letting US troops move through his country.
Thanks for the tip, I forgot about the mutual defense treaty, especially the "mutual" part. I think then North Korea can always be used as leverage against South Korea, if they even think about aiding US during a Taiwan scenario then there will be severe repercussions from the Chinese and maybe North Koreans.
All of you are overlooking two major soft powers china has .
1. Highly advanced ai that can be used in conjuction with psychological warfare markets to target foreign youth through media .
2. Growing video game exports ex genshin impact.
Something like games with a targeted narrative can shape the minds of young people abroad and attitudes.
Secondly many young people are alone and soend many hours per day playing games an inbuilt chat bot function disguised as a dialogue option in the game .
War is waged in more ways than bullets and tanks
1. Highly advanced ai that can be used in conjuction with psychological warfare markets to target foreign youth through media .
2. Growing video game exports ex genshin impact.
Something like games with a targeted narrative can shape the minds of young people abroad and attitudes.
Secondly many young people are alone and soend many hours per day playing games an inbuilt chat bot function disguised as a dialogue option in the game .
War is waged in more ways than bullets and tanks