PLA Strategy in High Intensity Ground Conflicts

[FairAndUnbiased]

One thing about the role of the navy in Korea 2 scenario: PLAN can't do anything about USN if it deploys on the Sea of Japan side, even with a neutral Japan, as all entrances are controlled by SK or US through their Japanese bases.

USN likewise can't do much about PLAN in Yellow Sea due to proximity to air, ground and missile forces, as well as having a huge concentration of PLAN northern fleet.

So it will likely be a much more ground centric conflict.

 

[antiterror13]

One thing about the role of the navy in Korea 2 scenario: PLAN can't do anything about USN if it deploys on the Sea of Japan side, even with a neutral Japan, as all entrances are controlled by SK or US through their Japanese bases.

USN likewise can't do much about PLAN in Yellow Sea due to proximity to air, ground and missile forces, as well as having a huge concentration of PLAN northern fleet.

So it will likely be a much more ground centric conflict.

Can the PLAN access the sea of Japan via Tumen river with the cooperation with Russia and NK ? perhaps not 052 class, smaller one like type 056 ?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Can the PLAN access the sea of Japan via Tumen river with the cooperation with Russia and NK ? perhaps not 052 class, smaller one like type 056 ?

Unfortunately the Tumen river is so shallow you can walk across it in most places and its a short swim where you can't. It can't handle the draft of the 056 which is still 4 meters. Even Type 022 with draft of 1.5 m can barely make it.

So naval operations will rely on the PLAAF, PLARF, PLAN coastal defense and KPN's midget subs which are not as bad as you'd think - after all, they supposedly sank the Cheonan, an ASW frigate that was supposed to be hunting THEM down.

 

[Mohsin77]

2. Modi may decide to attack Pakistan to try and shore up domestic opinion if it drops, in other words pulling a Putin.

He did that already.

The biggest problem that created for us is that imports of Tea shot up, thus increasing a balance of payments crises...

Well played India... well played.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Some more thoughts about Korea 2:

1. The South Korean Navy will need to evacuate to the Sea of Japan side or they'll just get sunk by PLAN subs in the Yellow Sea. They are unlikely to be able to deploy their P-3s in the face of PLAN air defense. Even on the Sea of Japan side they can still be hit by PLARF ASBMs, coastal defense and naval aviation, as well as KPN subs on the Sea of Japan side, but they can preserve more of their forces. I don't forsee a significant role for the ROKN - the Yellow Sea is only 700 km wide, most of it is already under Chinese and North Korean control, and China's entire northern fleet is there.

2. South Korean Army is very tube artillery heavy with 7000 pieces ~4000 towed pieces, ~3000 SPGs. It does not seem like South Korea places much emphasis on drone observers for their artillery, so that will be a disadvantage. I don't know how accurate Wiki is, but it says

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to make up for this, but it seems most of these are towed and do not have drone observers, and are deployed near the front where they are likely to suffer significant attrition.

3. PLA ground force advantages on the other hand is in mobility: more and better tanks (4500 vs. 2600), heavy armored vehicles (12k+ vs 2k), long range missiles, drones, air defense, MLRS. PLA also enjoys air superiority and naval superiority in the Yellow Sea.

It seems to me South Korean forces basically serve as the "fist" to the US "brain", as they seem to be very heavy on shooting assets but light on recon assets. The US is going to provide them with data from satellites, AWACs, drones, etc.

 

[AndrewS]

Some more thoughts about Korea 2:

1. The South Korean Navy will need to evacuate to the Sea of Japan side or they'll just get sunk by PLAN subs in the Yellow Sea. They are unlikely to be able to deploy their P-3s in the face of PLAN air defense. Even on the Sea of Japan side they can still be hit by PLARF ASBMs, coastal defense and naval aviation, as well as KPN subs on the Sea of Japan side, but they can preserve more of their forces. I don't forsee a significant role for the ROKN - the Yellow Sea is only 700 km wide, most of it is already under Chinese and North Korean control, and China's entire northern fleet is there.

2. South Korean Army is very tube artillery heavy with 7000 pieces ~4000 towed pieces, ~3000 SPGs. It does not seem like South Korea places much emphasis on drone observers for their artillery, so that will be a disadvantage. I don't know how accurate Wiki is, but it says

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.

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to make up for this, but it seems most of these are towed and do not have drone observers, and are deployed near the front where they are likely to suffer significant attrition.

3. PLA ground force advantages on the other hand is in mobility: more and better tanks (4500 vs. 2600), heavy armored vehicles (12k+ vs 2k), long range missiles, drones, air defense, MLRS. PLA also enjoys air superiority and naval superiority in the Yellow Sea.

It seems to me South Korean forces basically serve as the "fist" to the US "brain", as they seem to be very heavy on shooting assets but light on recon assets. The US is going to provide them with data from satellites, AWACs, drones, etc.

Remember that the supply requirements for Artillery are much higher than for tanks or IFVs. A single 155mm Artillery Shells weighs 43kg and a SPG can fire 10 per minute.

An even larger artillery component would place even more strain on logistics for forward operations (which is where the PLAGF) will be fighting.

I expect the PLAAGF has a lot of towed artillery pieces and also artillery shells in storage

 

[OppositeDay]

China did not get involved in the first Korean War until North Korea is almost defeated. In your scenario, a solo South Korean offensive wouldn’t overrun the North given the size and terrain relative to the South’s military size.

North Korea wasn't a treaty ally at the time of Korean War. It is now. China will have to respond if NK is at the receiving end of an unprovoked attack. With that said, I agree PLA Ground Force will likely not to get involved as South Korea is unlikely to pull off a successful blitzkrieg. China will probably impose a no-fly zone over NK airspace while sending a massive amount of military aid.

 

[Minm]

We have multiple threads about PLA strategy in naval conflicts but there seems to be little in the way of how the PLA should fight ground conflicts, which have a non-zero chance of happening.

Examples of a ground conflict occurring:

1. South Korean forces under an ultranationalist far right party decide that it is time to reunite the Korean peninsula under Seoul and does not believe the North will actually resort to strategic weapons. South Korean F-35s begin striking North Korean dams, electricity generating facilities and bridges while pre-sighted South Korean artillery attack North Korea's artillery park along the DMZ. North Korea fires back and prepares to dig in for a long defensive conflict, but Kim Jong Un asks for assistance and says that there may be uncontrolled risk of strategic escalation if Pyongyang is occupied. To avoid escalation and to abide by the terms of the Sino-Korean MDT, the PLA is deployed to repel the South Korean offensive.

2. BJP is taken over by its fascist branch the RSS. The new fascist prime minister of India decides to launch an all out attack on Askai Chin and Pakistani Kashmir to conquer them once and for all. To prevent the Indian takeover of Chinese land and avoid escalation, the PLA is deployed to repel the Indian attack before they can occupy Kashmir and Askai Chin.

3. Vietnam suffers a color revolution and the CPV is taken over by a revanchist nationalist faction. It begins to build up a NATO standard army, invites US to station forces there, starts persecuting the Chinese minority and begins shelling border regions of Guangxi. Worryingly, Vietnam also begins to import reactor components from the US. The CMC decides that they must be stopped before they are capable of further harm.

How is China to fight a ground conflict (not limited to just these 3)?

I know there are many pro Russian people here, but isn't the obvious fourth example a colour revolution in Russia, making them an EU member? A new but slightly more competent Yeltsin provoking China and placing missiles near the northern border and supporting terrorists in Xinjiang, like the Soviet Union did before WW2. Border clashes escalate and China decides that if there is going to be a war, they might as well take back outer Manchuria. The PLA ground force could truly show their worth when fighting a traditional ground war against Soviet/Russian tanks in the north

 

[AndrewS]

I know there are many pro Russian people here, but isn't the obvious fourth example a colour revolution in Russia, making them an EU member? A new but slightly more competent Yeltsin provoking China and placing missiles near the northern border and supporting terrorists in Xinjiang, like the Soviet Union did before WW2. Border clashes escalate and China decides that if there is going to be a war, they might as well take back outer Manchuria. The PLA ground force could truly show their worth when fighting a traditional ground war against Soviet/Russian tanks in the north

Remember that if Russia entered the EU, because of Russia's population and GDP, Russia would displace Germany as the sole EU member with a defacto veto.

Can't see France and Germany going for that.

Plus a large-scale Russia-China clash will almost certainly go nuclear, and both sides have no illusions on that front.

 

[gelgoog]

That is why the US has plans to break the Russian Federation into loads of tiny little pieces.
Good luck at that though. Someone did it to Germany once, and it lasted for quite some time, but it glued itself back.