PLA Strategy in High Intensity Ground Conflicts

FairAndUnbiased · Jun 22, 2022

We have multiple threads about PLA strategy in naval conflicts but there seems to be little in the way of how the PLA should fight ground conflicts, which have a non-zero chance of happening.

Examples of a ground conflict occurring:

1. South Korean forces under an ultranationalist far right party decide that it is time to reunite the Korean peninsula under Seoul and does not believe the North will actually resort to strategic weapons. South Korean F-35s begin striking North Korean dams, electricity generating facilities and bridges while pre-sighted South Korean artillery attack North Korea's artillery park along the DMZ. North Korea fires back and prepares to dig in for a long defensive conflict, but Kim Jong Un asks for assistance and says that there may be uncontrolled risk of strategic escalation if Pyongyang is occupied. To avoid escalation and to abide by the terms of the Sino-Korean MDT, the PLA is deployed to repel the South Korean offensive.

2. BJP is taken over by its fascist branch the RSS. The new fascist prime minister of India decides to launch an all out attack on Askai Chin and Pakistani Kashmir to conquer them once and for all. To prevent the Indian takeover of Chinese land and avoid escalation, the PLA is deployed to repel the Indian attack before they can occupy Kashmir and Askai Chin.

3. Vietnam suffers a color revolution and the CPV is taken over by a revanchist nationalist faction. It begins to build up a NATO standard army, invites US to station forces there, starts persecuting the Chinese minority and begins shelling border regions of Guangxi. Worryingly, Vietnam also begins to import reactor components from the US. The CMC decides that they must be stopped before they are capable of further harm.

How is China to fight a ground conflict (not limited to just these 3)?

Michaelsinodef · Jun 22, 2022

FairAndUnbiased said:
We have multiple threads about PLA strategy in naval conflicts but there seems to be little in the way of how the PLA should fight ground conflicts, which have a non-zero chance of happening.

Examples of a ground conflict occurring:

1. South Korean forces under an ultranationalist far right party decide that it is time to reunite the Korean peninsula under Seoul and does not believe the North will actually resort to strategic weapons. South Korean F-35s begin striking North Korean dams, electricity generating facilities and bridges while pre-sighted South Korean artillery attack North Korea's artillery park along the DMZ. North Korea fires back and prepares to dig in for a long defensive conflict, but Kim Jong Un asks for assistance and says that there may be uncontrolled risk of strategic escalation if Pyongyang is occupied. To avoid escalation and to abide by the terms of the Sino-Korean MDT, the PLA is deployed to repel the South Korean offensive.

2. BJP is taken over by its fascist branch the RSS. The new fascist prime minister of India decides to launch an all out attack on Askai Chin and Pakistani Kashmir to conquer them once and for all. To prevent the Indian takeover of Chinese land and avoid escalation, the PLA is deployed to repel the Indian attack before they can occupy Kashmir and Askai Chin.

3. Vietnam suffers a color revolution and the CPV is taken over by a revanchist nationalist faction. It begins to build up a NATO standard army, invites US to station forces there, starts persecuting the Chinese minority and begins shelling border regions of Guangxi. Worryingly, Vietnam also begins to import reactor components from the US. The CMC decides that they must be stopped before they are capable of further harm.

How is China to fight a ground conflict (not limited to just these 3)?

I say the scenario of all those 3 are low (probably even very low).

As for how the PLA would fight, I think we can take a look at the 'playbook' of how the PLA would take Taiwan, and then 'basically' remove the big amphibious landing part (as well airborne assault).

To get a good idea/starting point.

Basically, it isn't just gonna be the PLAGF, but a combined effort with the different branches in the PLA.

FairAndUnbiased · Jun 22, 2022

Michaelsinodef said:
I say the scenario of all those 3 are low (probably even very low).

As for how the PLA would fight, I think we can take a look at the 'playbook' of how the PLA would take Taiwan, and then 'basically' remove the big amphibious landing part (as well airborne assault).

To get a good idea/starting point.

Basically, it isn't just gonna be the PLAGF, but a combined effort with the different branches in the PLA.

PLAN won't be relevant against India in a border war, but will likely be a factor in a Korea or Vietnam conflict. Yet because of ground based antiship missiles and naval aviation, they're likely to take on a deterrence or sea control role rather than be able to freely bombard the battlefield. Even with the overwhelming advantage like Russian navy over Ukraine they're mostly sitting back and shooting Kalibrs from their VLS rather than going close with guns.

Unlike Taiwan, China will be the one reacting in these cases, as it is unlikely that China will strike South Korea, India or Vietnam first. There's new challenges and opportunities. PLAGF has a very high volume of sustained firepower, much higher than PLAAF and even more sustained than PLARF. But the enemy now is striking first, has cover and room to maneuver, and there are complicated ROEs and political objectives to navigate such as US assistance/intervention, strategic escalation, etc.

These might not be as far fetched as you'd think. Based on their behavior in the past few years, ultra nationalist right wingers are not 100% rational particularly when they believe they have or actually have US support. You see this from other countries such as Iraq when they believed they had western support and invaded Iran. India is even escalating on its own.

Michaelsinodef · Jun 22, 2022

FairAndUnbiased said:
PLAN won't be relevant against India in a border war, but will likely be a factor in a Korea or Vietnam conflict. Yet because of ground based antiship missiles and naval aviation, they're likely to take on a deterrence or sea control role rather than be able to freely bombard the battlefield. Even with the overwhelming advantage like Russian navy over Ukraine they're mostly sitting back and shooting Kalibrs from their VLS rather than going close with guns.

Unlike Taiwan, China will be the one reacting in these cases, as it is unlikely that China will strike South Korea, India or Vietnam first. There's new challenges and opportunities. PLAGF has a very high volume of sustained firepower, much higher than PLAAF and even more sustained than PLARF. But the enemy now is striking first, has cover and room to maneuver, and there are complicated ROEs and political objectives to navigate such as US assistance/intervention, strategic escalation, etc.

I don't think China would be incredibly surprised if anything like what you described were to happen, sure they might strike first, but I feel doubtful in the actual brunt/first strike capabilities of the nations you described, because they aren't the US.

FairAndUnbiased said:
These might not be as far fetched as you'd think. Based on their behavior in the past few years, ultra nationalist right wingers are not 100% rational particularly when they believe they have or actually have US support. You see this from other countries such as Iraq when they believed they had western support and invaded Iran. India is even escalating on its own.

Yea, so like I said, low probability, I didn't say impossibility or the likes.

Biscuits · Jun 22, 2022

Chinese ground force doctrine was mainly designed to hold against soviet/NATO tank centric pushes in the cases of a 2nd Korean war or USSR goes crazy.

Ground forces can dig in, use mass artillery and atgms to stop the enemy push while tanks pick off enemy advancing tanks, as you can see, the Chinese armor design philosophy is to emphasize front protection, speed and gun power, so they're suited to destroying waves of T-72 or M1 derivatives while reversing, using their speed to grab better locations.

The Army has a lot of drones, both recon and suicide ones, this would help greatly to win infantry vs infantry duels.

In any of those 3 scenarios, China would have full air superiority, in the worst case, they would at least deny the enemy any significant air operations.

Unlike Russian or NATO doctrine, I'm not sure China would focus on urban fighting as part of its ground operations. Instead, they would try to break the enemy advance leaving them shattered, encircle them and then worry about cities later. Since China doesn't hold any revanchist territorial ambitions, they would focus on demilitarizing the enemy nation through destroying as many soldiers as possible and then withdraw.

Think, how China fought Vietnam in 1979, but with way more firepower. Keeping losses low while maximising the enemy human cost in soldiers in the hopes of ending the war through deplating enemy ability to defend their key territories. At the same time, the drawbacks of such a strategy is that the PLA is not exactly good at taking and holding territory and especially not good at taking cities.

If they were absolutely forced to take cities, the PLA would probably siege them after demilitarizing the enemy first.

FairAndUnbiased · Jun 22, 2022

Biscuits said:
Chinese ground force doctrine was mainly designed to hold against soviet/NATO tank centric pushes in the cases of a 2nd Korean war or USSR goes crazy.

Ground forces can dig in, use mass artillery and atgms to stop the enemy push while tanks pick off enemy advancing tanks, as you can see, the Chinese armor design philosophy is to emphasize front protection, speed and gun power, so they're suited to destroying waves of T-72 or M1 derivatives while reversing, using their speed to grab better locations.

The Army has a lot of drones, both recon and suicide ones, this would help greatly to win infantry vs infantry duels.

In any of those 3 scenarios, China would have full air superiority, in the worst case, they would at least deny the enemy any significant air operations.

Unlike Russian or NATO doctrine, I'm not sure China would focus on urban fighting as part of its ground operations. Instead, they would try to break the enemy advance leaving them shattered, encircle them and then worry about cities later. Since China doesn't hold any revanchist territorial ambitions, they would focus on demilitarizing the enemy nation through destroying as many soldiers as possible and then withdraw.

Think, how China fought Vietnam in 1979, but with way more firepower. Keeping losses low while maximising the enemy human cost in soldiers in the hopes of ending the war through deplating enemy ability to defend their key territories. At the same time, the drawbacks of such a strategy is that the PLA is not exactly good at taking and holding territory and especially not good at taking cities.

If they were absolutely forced to take cities, the PLA would probably siege them after demilitarizing the enemy first.

Would China actually have air superiority immediately except vs Vietnam with no US intervention? The more I think about it the more I think that there will be differences between Taiwan scenario and even how PLAN and PLAAF fight in Korea 2 since now allies, civilians and a much stronger local opponent are in play.

For example in Korea 2, US will have THAAD prepositioned to blunt PLARF and KPA long range counterstrikes, SK will have their own SSKs and F-35s, and there will be the thorny choice of whether to strike US bases which might be made for China by North Korea.

South Korea is a more ground, naval and air competent opponent than Taiwan is, and US will almost certainly intervene if not at the start then if they start losing.

in the case of India, the terrain makes it so that Type 99s and other heavy tracked vehicles aren't relevant while Tibetan and Xinjiang airbases near Ladakh are either relatively far away (Hotan) or have thin air while Indian Army and Air Force is already prepositioned near Ladakh in the plains, since the plains below Ladakh are part of India's main population and economic center. You'll also likely see US AWACS flying deep inside India to provide C4SIR support for IAF.

i know we joke about India sometimes but they do have the capability to fight a high intensity conflict, and although defeated in the last one, it doesn't necessarily mean they'll be equally incompetent in the next.

Biscuits · Jun 22, 2022

FairAndUnbiased said:
Would China actually have air superiority immediately except vs Vietnam with no US intervention? The more I think about it the more I think that there will be differences between Taiwan scenario and even how PLAN and PLAAF fight in Korea 2 since now allies, civilians and a much stronger local opponent are in play.

For example in Korea 2, US will have THAAD prepositioned to blunt PLARF and KPA long range counterstrikes, SK will have their own SSKs and F-35s, and there will be the thorny choice of whether to strike US bases which might be made for China by North Korea.

South Korea is a more ground, naval and air competent opponent than Taiwan is, and US will almost certainly intervene if not at the start then if they start losing.

in the case of India, the terrain makes it so that Type 99s and other heavy tracked vehicles aren't relevant while Tibetan and Xinjiang airbases near Ladakh are either relatively far away (Hotan) or have thin air while Indian Army and Air Force is already prepositioned near Ladakh in the plains, since the plains below Ladakh are part of India's main population and economic center. You'll also likely see US AWACS flying deep inside India to provide C4SIR support for IAF.

i know we joke about India sometimes but they do have the capability to fight a high intensity conflict, and although defeated in the last one, it doesn't necessarily mean they'll be equally incompetent in the next.

If 2nd Korean war happens, probably not immediate air superiority if US is sending all its planes down. China could ensure no enemy planes can do missions without heavy casualties, but the Air Force itself can't do too much freely either.

That alone should be enough to allow the PLA to fight the way its designed to, they don't fully need air superiority.

SK armies might prove surprisingly weak when fighting NK... On paper they're better but NK has far more manpower. The latest war is showing that manpower still means a lot in warfare, as long as you have the command structures to control and direct them, and NK will have excellent command and ISR. I don't think NK could push SK alone, but if a highly nationalist SK president decides to send an army group to capture NK, even with full USA support, I don't see many of those soldiers ever coming home.

China is not gonna use Type 99A over himalayas, only the type 15s can go. If Indian scenario happened through, India really doesn't have anything that can stop a Chinese counter push from Pakistan's direction. Its all plains. the t72s that make up the bulk of Indian forces will get absolutely bodied by airpower and 3rd gen tanks.

Honestly I think out of all potential border threats, SK is the most militarily powerful. Indian army is large but India lacks allies and lack technology. And without an air force at least as big as the Russian one if not the US one, its not possible to contest the PLA air force in mainland Asia.

Jason_ · Jun 22, 2022

FairAndUnbiased said:
We have multiple threads about PLA strategy in naval conflicts but there seems to be little in the way of how the PLA should fight ground conflicts, which have a non-zero chance of happening.

Examples of a ground conflict occurring:

1. South Korean forces under an ultranationalist far right party decide that it is time to reunite the Korean peninsula under Seoul and does not believe the North will actually resort to strategic weapons. South Korean F-35s begin striking North Korean dams, electricity generating facilities and bridges while pre-sighted South Korean artillery attack North Korea's artillery park along the DMZ. North Korea fires back and prepares to dig in for a long defensive conflict, but Kim Jong Un asks for assistance and says that there may be uncontrolled risk of strategic escalation if Pyongyang is occupied. To avoid escalation and to abide by the terms of the Sino-Korean MDT, the PLA is deployed to repel the South Korean offensive.

2. BJP is taken over by its fascist branch the RSS. The new fascist prime minister of India decides to launch an all out attack on Askai Chin and Pakistani Kashmir to conquer them once and for all. To prevent the Indian takeover of Chinese land and avoid escalation, the PLA is deployed to repel the Indian attack before they can occupy Kashmir and Askai Chin.

3. Vietnam suffers a color revolution and the CPV is taken over by a revanchist nationalist faction. It begins to build up a NATO standard army, invites US to station forces there, starts persecuting the Chinese minority and begins shelling border regions of Guangxi. Worryingly, Vietnam also begins to import reactor components from the US. The CMC decides that they must be stopped before they are capable of further harm.

How is China to fight a ground conflict (not limited to just these 3)?

Scenario 1: Don't get involved but send weapons like what the US is doing for Ukraine. Lots of HJ-12s, QW-12s MANPAD.

Scenario 2: The PLARF and PLAAF strikes India's logistics hub at Leh. No more invasions.

Scenario 3: The PLAN announces an exercise in the South China Sea. The CBG led by CV-18 Fujian surge 700 sorties over 4 days off the coast of Hainan.

solarz · Jun 22, 2022

Biscuits said:
China is not gonna use Type 99A over himalayas, only the type 15s can go. If Indian scenario happened through, India really doesn't have anything that can stop a Chinese counter push from Pakistan's direction. Its all plains. the t72s that make up the bulk of Indian forces will get absolutely bodied by airpower and 3rd gen tanks.

How is China supposed to counter push from Pakistan?

solarz · Jun 22, 2022

Jason_ said:
Scenario 1: Don't get involved but send weapons like what the US is doing for Ukraine. Lots of HJ-12s, QW-12s MANPAD.

Scenario 2: The PLARF and PLAAF strikes India's logistics hub at Leh. No more invasions.

Scenario 3: The PLAN announces an exercise in the South China Sea. The CBG led by CV-18 Fujian surge 700 sorties over 4 days off the coast of Hainan.

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PLA Strategy in High Intensity Ground Conflicts

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