Indian Economics thread.

[reservior dogs]

In statistics, you do talk about correlation rather than causation. You got it the other way round.

Still, as they say, correlation does not mean causation and by default, if you take some obviously random, irrelevant indicators such as the color of someone's teeshirt and his test score, you might still get some small correlation. That's how some of these statistical relationships might be designed.

I agree that India has a certain upper limit that its citizens won't be able to breach.

The proxy I find more reliable, more foolproof if you like, is the performance of racial, ethnic kins in other smaller societies.

For China, that would be Taiwan, maybe Hong Kong, Singapore Macao with some caveats. There are relatives in Japan and Korea, too.

For India, that would be Sri Lanka, maybe Fiji Mauritius or Guyana where they are a sizeable community. Maybe there are relatives in Nepal and Bhutan, too.

For Indonesia, that would be Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines or southern Thailand.

I have to say none of these three groups' prospects look highly promising. China's performance and achievements of mini-Chinas elsewhere, make it likely that China would outperform India and Indonesia.

Indonesia will continue to lag India in all metrics of national power while it may be able to lead, only marginally, in softer indicators such as health, crime, education stats for children but in metrics of hard national power, Indonesia can not hold a candle to either India or China for next 3 decades.

I am talking space program, nuclear weapons, ASAT weapons, aircraft carrier, nuclear submarine, supercomputer, papers and patents, high tech exports, citations in sci tech disciplines, multibillion ruble/yuan/dinar/dirham tech firms.

In statistics, you do talk about correlation rather than causation. You got it the other way round.

Still, as they say, correlation does not mean causation and by default, if you take some obviously random, irrelevant indicators such as the color of someone's teeshirt and his test score, you might still get some small correlation. That's how some of these statistical relationships might be designed.

I agree that India has a certain upper limit that its citizens won't be able to breach.

The proxy I find more reliable, more foolproof if you like, is the performance of racial, ethnic kins in other smaller societies.

For China, that would be Taiwan, maybe Hong Kong, Singapore Macao with some caveats. There are relatives in Japan and Korea, too.

For India, that would be Sri Lanka, maybe Fiji Mauritius or Guyana where they are a sizeable community. Maybe there are relatives in Nepal and Bhutan, too.

For Indonesia, that would be Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines or southern Thailand.

I have to say none of these three groups' prospects look highly promising. China's performance and achievements of mini-Chinas elsewhere, make it likely that China would outperform India and Indonesia.

Indonesia will continue to lag India in all metrics of national power while it may be able to lead, only marginally, in softer indicators such as health, crime, education stats for children but in metrics of hard national power, Indonesia can not hold a candle to either India or China for next 3 decades.

I am talking space program, nuclear weapons, ASAT weapons, aircraft carrier, nuclear submarine, supercomputer, papers and patents, high tech exports, citations in sci tech disciplines, multibillion ruble/yuan/dinar/dirham tech firms.

What I mean is, people can argue about causation, but correlation cannot be disputed. The truth is, PISA scores are highly correlated to IQ test scores. Now you can argue that IQ scores do not represent real intelligence, but it is the best measurement of intelligence we have. In fact, PISA scores is a very good predictor of prosperity regardless of race. That is the reason people care about PISA score of teenagers.

 

[ougoah]

Now what has India innovated and produced? or even learned and mastered for themselves and managed to produce all on its own even if the equipment for manufacturing it is foreign and even if it is a direct 1:1.x copy??

shipbuilding? no (China and South Korea dominate and are superior to Europeans)
computers? no
display tech? no
battery or energy storage? no
cloud tech? no
NEVs? no
telecommunications technologies? no
renewables? no
energy production? a few gas turbines but nowhere near the East Asian nations, other tech much lower

I mean this list is basically the entire tech sector. India has but a few fintech, none of them impressive or earning notable money and exports outside India... stuff basically everyone has.

How come Indians can't even copy? let alone master and iterate and then innovate on?

Which tech field have Indians got a lead in (even if others have done something similar before)?

So I guess if East Asians can lead and innovate within 20 years of industrialising, Indians have been unable to despite 70 years of independence and 50 + years of industrialising.

Before 2000, China still had more space technology and more impressive ones than India, hypersonic programs, MIRV ballistic missiles which India struggle with now still. China has sold aircraft, tanks, vehicles, artillery, rockets, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles well before the year 2000. Often to wealthy middle eastern nations. Before year 2000 China still had some capability in semiconductor design and even fab (based entirely on foreign equipment back then) but at least mastering the technology on an academic level to now have their own equipment and be able to do the entire processes on their own. Where was India? Despite being given all those British institutions and infrastructure?

Before Industrial age, Chinese engineers invented things like paper, the wheelbarrow, trigger mechanism, crossbow, siege weapons with the most complicated mechanisms in the world for centuries, gunpowder which the British used to colonise all of India with, canons, rockets, the first hydro project and dam in history, water clocks with mechanisms more complicated than anything in Europe for centuries. The list goes on. Certainly ships larger than anything Indian and European during that era. Clearly East Asians can innovate. Now, in the past, and even during the age where Europeans dominated technology. Even during that worst era, East Asians had at least the financial/economic ability to copy, learn, understand and master European technology and leading science of the 20th century era. How come few Indians could? How come no Indians could do the same, not even copying during that era. While China could at least produce and master computing technology even in the 1980s, how come Indians couldn't? and how come Indians still cannot 40 years later while China is leading in computing technologies.

Give it another 30 years and East Asia dominates technology even further and will be at least equivalent in science and research institutions to the combined west. The latter is less commercially driven so will take longer to catch up to the west in.

The west simply took everything from the world, enslaved millions, took all the resources, killed whoever they wanted, and industrialised first by centuries. And still that blip and lead is waning and eroding to the point East Asia combined is an equivalent in technology already.

 

[ougoah]

Oh I forgot to mention that the Wests' (read US) persistent lead in science and tech in the 20th century also was majorly assisted by skilled migration... yes even from India (and lot too) and certainly from China and Eastern Europe.

So the West (read Anglo West) simply had all the resources for many centuries, industrialised first, took even more resources after that. Went around the world to sign deals with leaders to secure influence and resource (something China's doing on a smaller scale now), killed whoever opposed their methods and financial weapons (Saddam, Japan Plaza Accord, Gaddafi, ad so on) even to the point of threatening and doing this on their own (Alstom from France as one example) and using military security as leverage to reinforce political and economic influence (South Korea and Western Europe).

They also built up their own nations, made their financial tools the strongest and made themselves the most appealing for the smartest and most learned from around the world. Even then, China at least does manage to hold onto a lot of China's own talents despite suffering from major brain drain in the past and still does to a significantly reduced degree these days.

Despite all this, the West barely has more tech innovation than East Asia, in fact it has less now if you bother to wake up.

East Asia dominates and leads over the West in many tech sectors now and is an equal in many others. Apart from lead competition which seesaws back and forth like in supercomputing and quantum computing between US and China, there aren't many if any real fields that the West hold superiority over East Asia in.

Japan is the world's main producer and supplier of high end manufacturing tools and machinery along with Germany and Switzerland. They are actually superior to in some regards and inferior in others but that's lead seesawing. Apart from EUVL technology from Netherlands, what else has the West got an advantage or superiority in?

If we're talking about display technology, Chinese and Korean ones are over 3 generations ahead of western counterparts to the point western counterparts do not even play in the field anymore.

 

[ougoah]

Lol the talk about technology and innovation actually proves that East Asians are smarter, more industrious, and more productive than even Westerners.

Meanwhile it also shows Indians barely had the same level of historic accomplishment (sorry everyone had maths and everyone built impressive structures so Indians aren't special) but Indians didn't have the same depth of history and ancient achievements nor do they have current ones. Does that mean Indians indeed are the least intelligent?

It seems tech and innovation measure up to IQ rather commensurately. I mean India can barely create a society stable and capable enough to supply piped water to premises and sanitation for over 50% of its people. Something China achieved loooooooooong ago... but cope more... China copied pipes and toilets right? so China doesn't deserve to be recognised for other stuff because copy lololol.

Anyway I suppose Indians when they finally manage to make computers, aircraft, submarines, ships, smartphones, communications tech, even something as simple as a kitchen appliance, they are all copies, since East Asians innovated those products for the last 10 or 30 years at least.

Like even if we take a one off example of the automatic docking technology of China's space station which was done nearly a decade ago on China's space lab trial module Tiangong, that technology itself is an innovation. It had to develop it all on its own. NASA didn't come around to design and develop it for China. With India, many projects are like that where foreign companies and governments are actually contributing the entire thing. Talk down on China more. There are tens of thousands of examples like this except they are components on your LED lamp that you don't understand is innovated and developed by Asians and then produced and sold by Asians where western companies go to Asia to source and maybe codevelop more and make to their specifications.

 

[ougoah]

Again I ask, where is India's impressive stuff? Where is even India's equivalent of Huawei, but one major Chinese tech powerhouse... just one of hundreds.

India is lesser than 1% of China in tech to say nothing of East Asia.

How come China can innovate a special type of detonation hypersonic wind tunnel with impulse time far greater than US hypersonic tunnels and operate on entirely different physics principles?

Why can't India even produce a single hypersonic wind tunnel instead of talking about projects and plans.

Chinese scientists invented CL-20... do you know what that is?

Chinese scientists invented

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The thing is these are just stuff that people scared worried and wary of China report in English. Most stuff doesn't even come out of Chinese language or secrecy if it is strategically important. A lot is only known to us due to fearmongering or because it exists in the commercial domain like how Chinese battery technologies are sought after by BMW to Volkswagen, GM and Ford and Tesla and more. So we know they are dominating. In many fields, they already dominate, it's just not as obvious to you yet. Meanwhile cry more about it and hate more.

Where's India's battery technology or any technology for NEV and autonomous driving which China btw is ahead of Tesla in... NIO's outperform Teslas in accident rate (none in European trials and sales vs many many dozens of accidents for Tesla)... Xpeng was cleared of charges of spying by an American court and still has equal autopilot tech than Tesla's hypeware where Musk has been hyping L5 and FSD for years but cannot deliver while Chinese companies from Xpeng to NIO to FAW have equal to superior (proven) FSD and companies like Baidu's dedicated autonomous vehicle is a step above even those other Chinese companies.

Where is Indias?

Oh here ... more claims and hypes with a few assemblies based 100% on 100% foreign sourced components stuck together in India.




Meanwhile more East Asian innovation no one else has been able to do.





One type of combined cycle engine the US has not flown but China has in 2021 and possibly even before that. Relatively secretive stuff they won't show until it's in service. But the below provided CGI actually flew and landed. Has India done anything remotely close?








the only rotating detonation engine of its kind in the world... not even sensitive enough to not reveal photos of because there are various possibly engines already used for Chinese HGVs, you know the one that flew around the world last year.

Where's India's? Where's the US'

but yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah East Asians are dumb and can only copy... the reach and cope of reach copes lol

 

[reservior dogs]

am talking space program, nuclear weapons, ASAT weapons, aircraft carrier, nuclear submarine, supercomputer, papers and patents, high tech exports, citations in sci tech disciplines, multibillion ruble/yuan/dinar/dirham tech firms.

You have to be very careful in removing confounding factors. For example, for the East Asian cohort, until China come along, the other nations are forbidden to go into the aerospace field to compete with the U.S. Singapore and Hong Kong are too small. Taiwan, South Korea and Japan are all "allied" countries tightly controlled and managed by the U.S. In fact, there are only a few countries that truly have independent foreign policies.

 

[tygyg1111]

How can low IQ morons occupy more intelligent civilizations

An emotionally and intellectually stunted former student walks into a high school with an AR15, and holds the entire school hostage, resulting in the occupation of the entire township police force, district management and some national level resources in dealing with the situation. That's how.

 

[HariPrasad]

Then you're lol

And unfortunately.... He's R.I.P.

Everyone will RIP one day. The important thing is that he played his role.

People age slowly (exactly one year per year) so both China and India will have pretty much the same working population and the same set of issues for the next 30 years and this is already set in stone and cannot be changed except by war or famine. Since in 2022 China's labor market is still very tight, having a very gradual dimishing supply is actually good news for the next 20 years as it balances and supports a slow rate of change in retirement age from 55 to 65. I cannot think of any positive macro prospects for India in the long run after all the low-lying fruits are used up. Realistically, India should aim to catch up to Philippines' HDI in 50 years.

Your argument shows your high IQ. Your thoughts on aging populations as much correct as your high IQ. Educate yourself in subject.

So far as IQ is concern, I agree with you. Our low IQ Indians are employed in NASA in big numbers, they are CEOs of .any multinationals, they had IMF, they head world bank, they run education and research institutions against high IQ people who does high intellectual work of Pizza delivery, cooking in restaurants, driving taxis. I bow down to high IQ people for their high IQ and intelligent work they perform.

 

[HariPrasad]

Like I said, Indians never improve themselves because that's too hard. It's much easier to lie to your people and just say the other guy's hiding his failures/casualties. That going on for 6 decades is how you go from being larger than China's economy to ~1/6th the size while still feeling proud.

In the same way in which china grew. Our GDP in ppp is 12 bn USD. Once our currecy rate starts improving and reach its correct value, our GDP will rise manyfold. Your high IQ makes you believe that only Chinese economy can rise at a rapid pace and not other economies.

 

[ougoah]

In the same way in which china grew. Our GDP in ppp is 12 bn USD. Once our currecy rate starts improving and reach its correct value, our GDP will rise manyfold. Your high IQ makes you believe that only Chinese economy can rise at a rapid pace and not other economies.

Did he say that Indian economy cannot progress and rise?

His comment is on how slow and stagnant India's has been for decades.

Your currency is at correct value already. What do you mean by reach its correct value. Can I then say that China's currency when it reaches its correct value would be 10000x USA economy? That's basically your reasoning and argument. In fact it's ironic since China's currency actually is extremely undervalued to hold onto even the low value chain stuff while it is transitioning into high value chain.

Your IQ concluded on logical fallacies in your post but you don't seem to even realise. Perhaps unable to understand and comprehend it.
Hint, no one is saying Indian economy can't grow. Indian economy being shit =/= Indian economy can't grow at a rapid pace. Also nowhere else has anyone said other economies can't grow at a rapid pace. Why do you Indians always put words in other peoples mouths?

You always set up strawmen, attack them, and then claim victory. It's cultural isn't it?

Show us where we said Indian economy or any other economy cannot grow at rapid pace except China's? lol nothing of the sort has been said.