Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

[drowingfish]

the russian loss around kiev further illustrates the stupidity of the crowd that are gung-ho about going "straight for taipei" and thinks that PLA can simply ignore the islets west of taiwan because this is supposed to be "modern warfare". The approach of taking islets first, especially penghu, has been further proven to be the most viable option for PLA.

 

[nixdorf]

Ain't happening..

If after all that has happened in the past 3 years didn't drastically change military spending which remained so pathetically low, nothing is going to change it.

I think what's been holding them back from spending more is the immaturity of their military technology. Once they are satisfied with their carriers for example, we may be surprised at how quickly they expand their fleet. Likewise, once they have suitable indigenous engines we may be surprised at how quickly they expand their aircraft production lines.

 

[supersnoop]

Yeah that's after you've already landed. I would use uav and drones to clear space for landing.. that's the risky part and can save lives using mass drones. Go from naval blockade and then use drones to make space for landing. After landing china can do whatever, its just mop up.

Again, you don’t need to imagine a sci-fi thing.

A lot of the positions of AShM batteries, artillery batteries, and Patriot are fixed. These will be eliminated with SRBM. Now you are left with mobile i-HAWK and TK-2 to threaten jets. TK-1, Stinger/Avenger, Chaparral don’t have enough range, but would still kill drones.

Y-8 JSTARS equivalent should be able to identify targets and send the appropriate assets similar to how it worked against Iraq. Plenty of cruise missiles from Fujian or 055 or even MLRS to hit more dangerous targets.

That leaves mop up and this is probably where the drones could be best deployed.

 

[Minm]

Ain't happening..

If after all that has happened in the past 3 years didn't drastically change military spending which remained so pathetically low, nothing is going to change it.

It doesn't make sense to suddenly increase military spending by a very large amount. If you give the PLA more money than it can absorb, it will lead to waste and you'll start to see ridiculously high prices for military equipment like in the US. For example, if China only has the capacity to build 200 warplanes a year and is already producing at capacity, doubling spending will just give you 200 planes for double the price, but you won't get 400. It takes time to increase capacity.

A big jump in spending would also scare other countries in the region. It's much smarter to gradually raise military spending at a rate 1-2% above GDP growth and reach the 2% target like that, so the defence industry and the army organisation can keep up

 

[BoraTas]

It doesn't make sense to suddenly increase military spending by a very large amount. If you give the PLA more money than it can absorb, it will lead to waste and you'll start to see ridiculously high prices for military equipment like in the US. For example, if China only has the capacity to build 200 warplanes a year and is already producing at capacity, doubling spending will just give you 200 planes for double the price, but you won't get 400. It takes time to increase capacity.

A big jump in spending would also scare other countries in the region. It's much smarter to gradually raise military spending at a rate 1-2% above GDP growth and reach the 2% target like that, so the defence industry and the army organisation can keep up

With the rate of 1-2% rise above the GDP growth, it would take 36 years to reach 2.5% mark. An annual rise of 6% above nominal growth allows for 2.5% in 2034. For example, for a 5% growth and 4% inflation the increase should be 15%. I think that should be the case. Of course, the government should increase numbers arbitrarily. It should be buying according to the need which means the budget growth shouldn't look like a perfect exponential curve.
I am sure many ambitions of the PLA are being canceled because of low budgets. For example who can say 20 more nuclear subs wouldn't make things a lot easier?

 

[Will76]

Guancha interviewed Jin Chanrong (金灿荣), a professor in Renmin university and an expert on Sino-US relationships.

Prof. Jin believes that the west, the US in particular, might have determined to punish China for not siding with them on Russia. The Ukraine conflict is going to cause major disruptions to the global food supply. That in turn can start turmoil and unrest in the global south. It will not be good for BRI.

Some reckless politicians in the US might want to take chance amid the chaos and push Taiwan to cross the red lines. He warns to not overlook the possibility that these bandits, and their lap dogs in Taiwan, will miscalculate.

To prepare for the worst, Prof. Jin thinks that China must quickly raise annual military expenditure to 2% of its GDP.

The result of a recent poll in the US says that some US public are more willing to risk a war with China than with Russia. Using it as an example to show that many Americans are underestimating China's capacity as a nuclear power, Jin urges that China must ditch the strategy of 韬光养晦 (keep a low profile to bide one's time) and start playing its cards in the clear to the US. He considers 韬光养晦 only a special case for short term challenges and the time for it has long gone. China has already become too big for the corner.

In his opinion, it'd be foolish to think that, in dealing with the US, being purposefully unintelligible can conceal China's strategic and long term objectives. China must state clearly its intents and interests to avoid misunderstanding and miscalculation by the US, or any other foreign power.

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I agree with this prof. China is too big to be ignored anymore by the US. its obvious but the massive increase in propaganda if you visit any western site. And its going to be increasing more and more.

600-1000~ nukes are way too low when you consider how many US allies that could join.

China needs to work in more self reliance as well. Since we're seeing what they did with Russia. All of china trillion dollar reserves could be worth zero at a moment notice.

 

[KYli]

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[FairAndUnbiased]

the russian loss around kiev further illustrates the stupidity of the crowd that are gung-ho about going "straight for taipei" and thinks that PLA can simply ignore the islets west of taiwan because this is supposed to be "modern warfare". The approach of taking islets first, especially penghu, has been further proven to be the most viable option for PLA.

Kiev is surrounded by swamp and villages where small units can ambush the Russian logistics tail.

That's not a thing in the ocean. The closest equivalent is subs but ROCN only has 4 WW2 subs that can be tailed and taken out at hour 0 of the war by other subs.

However there may be other uses of outlying islands. We need a pinned map here lol.

 

[Volpler11]

Taking using quick reaction force, launching missile barrage on Taiwan, and mobilizing the army can be done at the same time. There is no reason for PLA to conduct amphibious assault of the main island on the first day of the war. But taking the outlaying Islands are just side objectives.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Taking using quick reaction force, launching missile barrage on Taiwan, and mobilizing the army can be done at the same time. There is no reason for PLA to conduct amphibious assault of the main island on the first day of the war. But taking the outlaying Islands are just side objectives.

one use of Penghu is so that tube and shorter ranged rocket artillery can be put to use. due to range limitations, ~100 km is all they'll get. While they can't bombard possible landing beaches for amphibs since there's none around Chiayi across the water from Penghu (it's all wetland), they can cut coastal routes around Chiayi. they can also provide a short ranged drone base and close-in radar station. am I missing anything?

in exchange will be the problem of managing a population of 100k.