Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
On a second thought, I don't think there this thread here is even necessary.

Mainland and Taiwan might look like they are bickering with each other all the time, but they actually have pretty decent working relationship, and very well integrated economy and a pretty good mechanism of de-escalation.

Just my personal opinion, no offense to anyone. Things discussed here are of high quality and value, nonetheless.
There is still the possibility of a wutong/reunification through military means that shouldn't be ignored or dismissed.

While it hopefully doesn't come to that, but I assume this thread is more about that (as well as trying to take some lessons front the russo-ukraine conflict happening right now).
 

Egg roll

New Member
Registered Member
On a second thought, I don't think there this thread here is even necessary.

Mainland and Taiwan might look like they are bickering with each other all the time, but they actually have pretty decent working relationship, and very well integrated economy and a pretty good mechanism of de-escalation.

Just my personal opinion, no offense to anyone. Things discussed here are of high quality and value, nonetheless.
"good mechanism of de-escalation" In theory yes but then you have the US factor involving here.
 

Jingle Bells

Junior Member
Registered Member
There is still the possibility of a wutong/reunification through military means that shouldn't be ignored or dismissed.

While it hopefully doesn't come to that, but I assume this thread is more about that (as well as trying to take some lessons front the russo-ukraine conflict happening right now).
Of course, that's true.
But if you look at what the DPP is doing under Tsai, they are actually move away from the old rhetoric of "properly name Taiwan" (台湾正名) and effectively ending the ROC, and moving towards holding onto ROC. Remember this is the DPP.

And especially after this war in Ukraine, the people on the island is massively abandoning their old belief that the US military will directly be involved (sure, the US's stand was deliberately kept as "strategically" ambiguous), and instead turn towards this "we will defend ourselves in a long war of attrition" attitude. Even the official stand from the US and the current Taiwan authority is stepping out of that traditional "strategic ambiguous" stand of an implied US military directly getting involved towards a more clear attitude of "the US will only just need to help Taiwan defend itself" presumably by selling weapons and providing strategic intelligence.

So, this war is actually making the future onlook of things more clear for both side. The PLA and the CPC no longer believe in the fantasy of the possibility a fast and easy war with little actual fight and collateral damage and will ONLY prepare for an all out destructive war with overwhelming force (basically a "destroy them utterly now, and rebuild after the war" approach to a "wutong"). And the authority in Taiwan is aware of this too.

So now both side is back to simply another version of what is essentially a "legal dispute over the definition of 'China' in the style of realpolitik", instead of the previous game of "中华民国 vs 台湾国" game: domesticating the front of conflict to within Taiwan island, yet still holding huge influence over Mainland.
 

BoraTas

Captain
Registered Member
With the rate of 1-2% rise above the GDP growth, it would take 36 years to reach 2.5% mark. An annual rise of 6% above nominal growth allows for 2.5% in 2034. For example, for a 5% growth and 4% inflation the increase should be 15%. I think that should be the case. Of course, the government should increase numbers arbitrarily. It should be buying according to the need which means the budget growth shouldn't look like a perfect exponential curve.
I am sure many ambitions of the PLA are being canceled because of low budgets. For example who can say 20 more nuclear subs wouldn't make things a lot easier?
"Of course, the government should increase numbers arbitrarily. It should be buying according to the need which means the budget growth shouldn't look like a perfect exponential curve."
I meant should not increase numbers arbitrarily. It should be looking at actual needs and capabilities.
 

Jingle Bells

Junior Member
Registered Member
"good mechanism of de-escalation" In theory yes but then you have the US factor involving here.
Well, the thing is that what they US has done has not been very effective at driving Taiwan towards a higher level of conflict with the Mainland. They (the US) probably wanted to, but they are not succeeding.
Besides, the more I am beginning to see the connection between the "national character" (民族性) reflected by the average everyday Ukrainians (and Russian) I encounter in my life to their countries/regime's behavior, as comparing to that of Taiwanese/Mainlander to their respective government/regime's behavior. I see less and less possibility that Taiwan will be blunt enough to actually push for a real war/conflict with the Mainland, nor is the Mainland right now bothered to go for Wutong unprovoked at the moment.

Peace still have way too much of a dividend for both side that the US has nothing even closely equivalent to offer for either side to abandon peace. Remember, it is the DPP in power right now. They could even just taunt a referendum, and that will be enough to escalate the confrontation.

But NO, the Taiwan leadership simply wave off any real provocation towards the Mainland, as a matter of principle, leaving only the small meaningless gestures for domestic consumption. The very fact that DPP leadership seemingly abandoned their pursuit of a "properly name Taiwan" (台湾正名) campaign, and instead taking very cautious and conservative approach, should be clear evidence of my point.

Taiwan's society is essentially very Southern Chinese, in which they have a rather low sense of a "holy war" zealotry as evident in many culture with strong messianic religious traditions.
 

tch1972

Junior Member
Logistic and total air superiority.

Once landed on the island, PLA got no place to retreat. If logistical chain is disrupted, it will be gameover.

I don't expect ROC army to fought like Ukrainian. Yes in the past but fighting capability of Taiwanese forces was cripple by domestic politics in the last 20 years.

Still PLA can't afford to be complacent. Human reacts different if their survival is at stake. To migitate the problem, China should offer the Taiwanese an attractive alternative prior to 'invasion' after the island return under her rule.
Never overlook the importance of psychological warfare. And the ability to communicate effectively is one of the weakest link for China.
 

Jingle Bells

Junior Member
Registered Member
Logistic and total air superiority.

Once landed on the island, PLA got no place to retreat. If logistical chain is disrupted, it will be gameover.

I don't expect ROC army to fought like Ukrainian. Yes in the past but fighting capability of Taiwanese forces was cripple by domestic politics in the last 20 years.

Still PLA can't afford to be complacent. Human reacts different if their survival is at stake. To migitate the problem, China should offer the Taiwanese an attractive alternative prior to 'invasion' after the island return under her rule.
Never overlook the importance of psychological warfare. And the ability to communicate effectively is one of the weakest link for China.
Any unification war will be a matter of survival of the PRC and all of China. If PLA can't even handle Taiwan once the war starts, then China is over. If China is over, Taiwan will be bombed to smithereens. A failure in a unification war will be a major major blow to our civilization for centuries. This is why both side are so very cautious, because they know the consequences. Even the most die-hard independent seeking Taiwanese, don't want to destroy themselves in the process.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
On a second thought, I don't think there this thread here is even necessary.

Mainland and Taiwan might look like they are bickering with each other all the time, but they actually have pretty decent working relationship, and very well integrated economy and a pretty good mechanism of de-escalation.

Just my personal opinion, no offense to anyone. Things discussed here are of high quality and value, nonetheless.
this was true pre-2016. After 2016 everything changed. fascists have taken over. Just because they fly a rainbow flag doesn't mean they're not fascists. Witness how in this certain Eastern European conflict, LGBT activists supported the Nazis. This is why the flybys and crossing strait centerline is happening. Do not be like the Russians who drank their own Koolaid.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Well, the thing is that what they US has done has not been very effective at driving Taiwan towards a higher level of conflict with the Mainland. They (the US) probably wanted to, but they are not succeeding.
Besides, the more I am beginning to see the connection between the "national character" (民族性) reflected by the average everyday Ukrainians (and Russian) I encounter in my life to their countries/regime's behavior, as comparing to that of Taiwanese/Mainlander to their respective government/regime's behavior. I see less and less possibility that Taiwan will be blunt enough to actually push for a real war/conflict with the Mainland, nor is the Mainland right now bothered to go for Wutong unprovoked at the moment.

Peace still have way too much of a dividend for both side that the US has nothing even closely equivalent to offer for either side to abandon peace. Remember, it is the DPP in power right now. They could even just taunt a referendum, and that will be enough to escalate the confrontation.

But NO, the Taiwan leadership simply wave off any real provocation towards the Mainland, as a matter of principle, leaving only the small meaningless gestures for domestic consumption. The very fact that DPP leadership seemingly abandoned their pursuit of a "properly name Taiwan" (台湾正名) campaign, and instead taking very cautious and conservative approach, should be clear evidence of my point.

Taiwan's society is essentially very Southern Chinese, in which they have a rather low sense of a "holy war" zealotry as evident in many culture with strong messianic religious traditions.
people said that Ukrainians only cared about money, hated their corrupt government and wouldn't want to fight and die for the looter class. They even were proven right once in 2014 where Ukrainian troops defected en masse to Russia. yet here we are now.
 

lcloo

Captain
Of course, that's true.
But if you look at what the DPP is doing under Tsai, they are actually move away from the old rhetoric of "properly name Taiwan" (台湾正名) and effectively ending the ROC, and moving towards holding onto ROC. Remember this is the DPP.

And especially after this war in Ukraine, the people on the island is massively abandoning their old belief that the US military will directly be involved (sure, the US's stand was deliberately kept as "strategically" ambiguous), and instead turn towards this "we will defend ourselves in a long war of attrition" attitude. Even the official stand from the US and the current Taiwan authority is stepping out of that traditional "strategic ambiguous" stand of an implied US military directly getting involved towards a more clear attitude of "the US will only just need to help Taiwan defend itself" presumably by selling weapons and providing strategic intelligence.

So, this war is actually making the future onlook of things more clear for both side. The PLA and the CPC no longer believe in the fantasy of the possibility a fast and easy war with little actual fight and collateral damage and will ONLY prepare for an all out destructive war with overwhelming force (basically a "destroy them utterly now, and rebuild after the war" approach to a "wutong"). And the authority in Taiwan is aware of this too.

So now both side is back to simply another version of what is essentially a "legal dispute over the definition of 'China' in the style of realpolitik", instead of the previous game of "中华民国 vs 台湾国" game: domesticating the front of conflict to within Taiwan island, yet still holding huge influence over Mainland.
Relax, the islanders military are still calling themselves Chinese armed forces officially. They won't dare to change, the military generals know better than the DPP politicians.


LOL!!!, They are just a different old regime China airforce that is not recognised in United Nation.:p:p
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