That's what I and some others already pointed out. This was probably the plan from the beginning.
Ukrainian War Developments
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That's what I and some others already pointed out. This was probably the plan from the beginning.
It won't work as a diversionary force if it looks too obvious to be a diversionary force.
yep, that's why Ukrainian fascists failed when they tried to incite an uprising in Hong Kong. AB sent their elite provocateurs to Hong Kong in 2019 during the height of the riots. They somehow forgot they were white guys in a Chinese city and failed miserably to gain any support for them or their cause. They don't know the difference between Mandarin and Cantonese speakers is near 0 compared to Russian vs Ukrainian.
SMH...
Why can’t users just post what is happening in the ground instead of debating if its moral & justified war or not. We all know innocent peoples are suffering right now due to stupid geopolitical conflict. But I don’t wanna read 1700 pages with 90% kindergarden arguements & 10% actual war news & informations.
Mandarin and Cantonese are not ethnicities, they are languages.
And Mandarin itself is a very vague term. Does it mean the 普通话/国语 as the official lingua franca? Or does it mean ”官话“ as a form of language/dialect? Because 普通话 is specifically the official lingua franca of modern day PRC (国语 is that of ROC).
But "官话" is a group of languages/dialects that have many variations, many of which are not even readily/fully mutually intelligible.
For example many dialects of the 西南官话 (South Western Mandarin) are very hard to understand for Mandarin (普通话) speakers people not familiar with it. ”江淮官话” (Lower Yangtze River Mandarin) is also almost impossible to understand for mandarin (普通话) speakers not familiar with it.
This is off topic. Sorry.
Also, if anyone is familiar with both Russian/Ukrainian and Mandarin/Cantonese, please share with us some insights about the differences between these two languages.
seems like they are going for attrition now. just using their superior situational awareness and long range fires to hammer opposing troop concentrations, supplies depots and fuel tanks.
That is correct.
At the dawn of the 35th day, 5 weeks into the Russo-Ukrainian War, I thought I would post an update and attempt at some analysis. I have been really busy and dealing with things IRL. I have been following the thread here, but not been posting.
That said, this thread has a serious digression problem. We really, really need to focus on the war itself, not other nations and their internal squabbles. Not possibly - in a carnival mirror sort of way - analogues with other places in the world. Unless we can demonstrate why historical event is a direct tie to what is happening and it is spelled out, we should leave that for other discussions and other threads. We are and should be better than this...this mess...this thread has become. We have a crap ton of propaganda to sort through and knowledge to gain. This war is a tragedy. There's little any of us can do to change its course, but we can learn from it. Focus, folks.
Most of this is purely my opinion and worth as much as you have paid for it and even then it's not even worth that. My opinions are purely subjective and you should take with a grain of salt. More than a grain of salt. A lot more.
1. Russia is probably winning. I am starting to have a few doubts. Fighting has stalled in Kiev. In fact, the Russians are claiming they are redeploying forces from there. Progress elsewhere has been stymied. The Donbas kessel appears to not exist. The push towards Odesa is, well, toast, afaict, with the Ukrainians pushing back to the outskirts of Kherson. I think the next three weeks will be critical. As I have said before, if Russia is still fighting this war in July, they are in deep, awful trouble.
2. Now then, let me say I was wrong. Again. I expected Russia to have taken Mauripol by now and just be dealing with some minor mop up actions. That has still not happened. Should I venture another guess? Or am I somehow cursing the Russian effort down there? Where can I properly hone this power? Just kidding. So at 6 weeks, will the Russians have finished their conquest of Mauripol? I would think so, but, hell, I've been rather wrong here. I expected this to be done and over two to three weeks ago.
3. I do not think the push in the north was a feint. Ritter's statement of it being so doesn't pass the sniff test of the amount of resources committed. The push on Kiev and the north was massive. There would be no need for the meat grinder seen there if it was a feint. Feints are best with a few skirmishes and threats, not real engagements and huge numbers of troops. I do agree with the assessment about the marines and Odesa being a feint. That operation works exactly as a feint should: drawing off troops in excess and out of proportion of what you have committed.
4. Belarus still hasn't joined the fight. No Brest front so far. I am beginning to think there will not be one nor will Belarus join.
5. Kiev stands. Kharkov stands. Sumy stands. Ukraine appears to be conducting at least some counteroffensives. The most successful appears to be the push towards Kherson. Interesting. Let's see if it holds true.
6. As it stands, it appears Russia has lost 10% of the BTGs' equipment it had positioned at the start of the war. Yup, 13 BTG of tanks, APCs and IFVs have been lost. However, another 6 tank battalions worth of, well, tanks are also lost. IDK if Russia deployed independent tank battalions or not as I have not found a satisfactory answer yet. 10% of the APCs+IFVs and around 25% of the tanks the Russians started with are gone. This is, yes, based on Oryx's site.
7. I also wanted to see if I could get a good guessimate - less than a real estimate, more than a guess - on the deaths and casualties the Russians had suffered. Using the number of destroyed IFVs, APCs, tanks and MT-LBs, I came up around 2,800 Russian soldiers KIA and assuming 3x wounded 8,400. This could be about 500 less, depending on the role the MT-LB was being used for at the time. Also, this is the front-line poor bloody infantry and the rats in a can, ahem, tankers only. The infantry + tankers of a BTG are about 350 souls. That in turn implies 6 to 8 BTG worth of infantry+tankers dead and 18 to 24 BTG combat troops wounded. We see a 18% to 24% of combat troops the army the Russians moved into Ukraine have been chewed up. These numbers don't include the logistics or artillery or other troops. if we did the overly simplistic casualties, this would just add up to 14 BTGs. Likewise, I expect the actual deaths among the infantry to be much, much worse. The percentage above could be the reason why the Russian advances have slowed so much. Or I could be full of crap, too. Even so, I think I find my numbers more plausible than what either the Ukrainians or Russians are publishing.
8. Even so, as I write the above, we know the Russians have reinforced: the Chechens are a prime example. Troops from Ossetia are another. The peacekeepers from Armenia are still more. They have more formations in country at this point than the original 130 BTGs. We know more reinforcements are coming from the Far East, for that matter, too. That would strongly imply, due to the transit time, Russia is committed to a longer war.
9. I have no insight as to what the Ukrainian losses are other than it isn't good.
10. The VKS is running 200 to 300 missons/day now. Welcome to the party, pal! The poor Russian grunts on the ground would have loved to have you weeks ago.
11. @Temstar asked why the Russians were hitting the Ukrainian fuel depots. IMO, it is an attempt to prevent the Ukrainians to be able to do major armored offensives. It doesn't matter if the Ukrainians preserve an armored corps for later if they don't have or can't get fuel. No gas: no go. It will be interesting to see if NATO et al start supplying fuel and other logistics trucks. If we do see that, I have a hunch the Ukrainians are not just going to do localized counteroffensives.
12. Someone asked why the Ukrainians are fighting for their government if it is as corrupt and awful as it is. It's not about the government. This is about their homes. 25%+ of Ukrainians are displaced now. After the war, Zelensky may end up vilified. For now, Ukrainians are mad as hell and fighting like demons simply because their supposed 'brother' nation just invaded. Invaded, burned and killed. If Abel survived Cain (Qābīl and Hābīl), then the Old Testament of the Bible would look really different. Ukrainian rage, people, is incandescent now. Please, don't underestimate it.
Prognostication! Or my very unprofitable prophecies. bet against them, folks! Not with them! I won't be responsible for your lost dinero. That said...
A. The next three to five weeks are critical. I think we will see the Ukrainians run up the kill score on Russian equipment. General Mud doesn't signal his withdrawal until May, so until then, the defenders will have the advantage: the Russians will be restricted to the roads which in this case are as much a chokepoint as any canyon, mountain pass or river valley. Once the Raputitsa slackens and dies out, Ukraine turns into beautiful tank warfare country. That will favor the Russians, if they have not become too chewed up before then.
B. In the mean time, if the Russians are able to reinforce more and free up troops from Mauripol, they can regain the momentum they had early on. If the Russians cannot shift their troops or reinforce enough, General Mud's withdrawal from the fields will favor a serious Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Right now, I think the Russians are probably going to win. I stress probably. Not absolutely. I am no 100% longer certain. The Russian army has failed to meet many of the objectives I have expected of them by this point: in fact, almost all. They didn't defeat Kiev in 72 hours. They didn't do it in 15 days. The new goal post I've read is victory day in May for the planned victory. We shall see.
FWIW, in another week, they will have taken as long as the US initial conquest of Iraq. TBF, Ukraine is about 50% bigger than Iraq. OTOH, Russia borders Ukraine so it doesn't have to ship its logistics half way around the world. OTGH, it is pretty clear the war has not gone according to plan. Yet, no plan ever survives contact with the enemy, as they say. It will all depend if Russia's military can adapt to the far greater resistance than they clearly expected. Time will tell.
Again, worth as much as you paid for it. I have been wrong before and will be again. I freely admit that.
Please, be safe, well and remember all sides are sholving bovine excrement at rates faster than bulls and heifers in the world can produce it. It's pretty astounding, actually. Let's keep the thread on target. We've been lucky the mods have not dropped another nuke on us.
That said, this thread has a serious digression problem. We really, really need to focus on the war itself, not other nations and their internal squabbles. Not possibly - in a carnival mirror sort of way - analogues with other places in the world. Unless we can demonstrate why historical event is a direct tie to what is happening and it is spelled out, we should leave that for other discussions and other threads. We are and should be better than this...this mess...this thread has become. We have a crap ton of propaganda to sort through and knowledge to gain. This war is a tragedy. There's little any of us can do to change its course, but we can learn from it. Focus, folks.
Most of this is purely my opinion and worth as much as you have paid for it and even then it's not even worth that. My opinions are purely subjective and you should take with a grain of salt. More than a grain of salt. A lot more.
1. Russia is probably winning. I am starting to have a few doubts. Fighting has stalled in Kiev. In fact, the Russians are claiming they are redeploying forces from there. Progress elsewhere has been stymied. The Donbas kessel appears to not exist. The push towards Odesa is, well, toast, afaict, with the Ukrainians pushing back to the outskirts of Kherson. I think the next three weeks will be critical. As I have said before, if Russia is still fighting this war in July, they are in deep, awful trouble.
2. Now then, let me say I was wrong. Again. I expected Russia to have taken Mauripol by now and just be dealing with some minor mop up actions. That has still not happened. Should I venture another guess? Or am I somehow cursing the Russian effort down there? Where can I properly hone this power? Just kidding. So at 6 weeks, will the Russians have finished their conquest of Mauripol? I would think so, but, hell, I've been rather wrong here. I expected this to be done and over two to three weeks ago.
3. I do not think the push in the north was a feint. Ritter's statement of it being so doesn't pass the sniff test of the amount of resources committed. The push on Kiev and the north was massive. There would be no need for the meat grinder seen there if it was a feint. Feints are best with a few skirmishes and threats, not real engagements and huge numbers of troops. I do agree with the assessment about the marines and Odesa being a feint. That operation works exactly as a feint should: drawing off troops in excess and out of proportion of what you have committed.
4. Belarus still hasn't joined the fight. No Brest front so far. I am beginning to think there will not be one nor will Belarus join.
5. Kiev stands. Kharkov stands. Sumy stands. Ukraine appears to be conducting at least some counteroffensives. The most successful appears to be the push towards Kherson. Interesting. Let's see if it holds true.
6. As it stands, it appears Russia has lost 10% of the BTGs' equipment it had positioned at the start of the war. Yup, 13 BTG of tanks, APCs and IFVs have been lost. However, another 6 tank battalions worth of, well, tanks are also lost. IDK if Russia deployed independent tank battalions or not as I have not found a satisfactory answer yet. 10% of the APCs+IFVs and around 25% of the tanks the Russians started with are gone. This is, yes, based on Oryx's site.
7. I also wanted to see if I could get a good guessimate - less than a real estimate, more than a guess - on the deaths and casualties the Russians had suffered. Using the number of destroyed IFVs, APCs, tanks and MT-LBs, I came up around 2,800 Russian soldiers KIA and assuming 3x wounded 8,400. This could be about 500 less, depending on the role the MT-LB was being used for at the time. Also, this is the front-line poor bloody infantry and the rats in a can, ahem, tankers only. The infantry + tankers of a BTG are about 350 souls. That in turn implies 6 to 8 BTG worth of infantry+tankers dead and 18 to 24 BTG combat troops wounded. We see a 18% to 24% of combat troops the army the Russians moved into Ukraine have been chewed up. These numbers don't include the logistics or artillery or other troops. if we did the overly simplistic casualties, this would just add up to 14 BTGs. Likewise, I expect the actual deaths among the infantry to be much, much worse. The percentage above could be the reason why the Russian advances have slowed so much. Or I could be full of crap, too. Even so, I think I find my numbers more plausible than what either the Ukrainians or Russians are publishing.
8. Even so, as I write the above, we know the Russians have reinforced: the Chechens are a prime example. Troops from Ossetia are another. The peacekeepers from Armenia are still more. They have more formations in country at this point than the original 130 BTGs. We know more reinforcements are coming from the Far East, for that matter, too. That would strongly imply, due to the transit time, Russia is committed to a longer war.
9. I have no insight as to what the Ukrainian losses are other than it isn't good.
10. The VKS is running 200 to 300 missons/day now. Welcome to the party, pal! The poor Russian grunts on the ground would have loved to have you weeks ago.
11. @Temstar asked why the Russians were hitting the Ukrainian fuel depots. IMO, it is an attempt to prevent the Ukrainians to be able to do major armored offensives. It doesn't matter if the Ukrainians preserve an armored corps for later if they don't have or can't get fuel. No gas: no go. It will be interesting to see if NATO et al start supplying fuel and other logistics trucks. If we do see that, I have a hunch the Ukrainians are not just going to do localized counteroffensives.
12. Someone asked why the Ukrainians are fighting for their government if it is as corrupt and awful as it is. It's not about the government. This is about their homes. 25%+ of Ukrainians are displaced now. After the war, Zelensky may end up vilified. For now, Ukrainians are mad as hell and fighting like demons simply because their supposed 'brother' nation just invaded. Invaded, burned and killed. If Abel survived Cain (Qābīl and Hābīl), then the Old Testament of the Bible would look really different. Ukrainian rage, people, is incandescent now. Please, don't underestimate it.
Prognostication! Or my very unprofitable prophecies. bet against them, folks! Not with them! I won't be responsible for your lost dinero. That said...
A. The next three to five weeks are critical. I think we will see the Ukrainians run up the kill score on Russian equipment. General Mud doesn't signal his withdrawal until May, so until then, the defenders will have the advantage: the Russians will be restricted to the roads which in this case are as much a chokepoint as any canyon, mountain pass or river valley. Once the Raputitsa slackens and dies out, Ukraine turns into beautiful tank warfare country. That will favor the Russians, if they have not become too chewed up before then.
B. In the mean time, if the Russians are able to reinforce more and free up troops from Mauripol, they can regain the momentum they had early on. If the Russians cannot shift their troops or reinforce enough, General Mud's withdrawal from the fields will favor a serious Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Right now, I think the Russians are probably going to win. I stress probably. Not absolutely. I am no 100% longer certain. The Russian army has failed to meet many of the objectives I have expected of them by this point: in fact, almost all. They didn't defeat Kiev in 72 hours. They didn't do it in 15 days. The new goal post I've read is victory day in May for the planned victory. We shall see.
FWIW, in another week, they will have taken as long as the US initial conquest of Iraq. TBF, Ukraine is about 50% bigger than Iraq. OTOH, Russia borders Ukraine so it doesn't have to ship its logistics half way around the world. OTGH, it is pretty clear the war has not gone according to plan. Yet, no plan ever survives contact with the enemy, as they say. It will all depend if Russia's military can adapt to the far greater resistance than they clearly expected. Time will tell.
Again, worth as much as you paid for it. I have been wrong before and will be again. I freely admit that.
Please, be safe, well and remember all sides are sholving bovine excrement at rates faster than bulls and heifers in the world can produce it. It's pretty astounding, actually. Let's keep the thread on target. We've been lucky the mods have not dropped another nuke on us.
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