I think if the Russians are able to take Mariupol and then take out the 40-60K Ukrainian troops in East Ukraine, it would free up a large number of troops to start another fight in a different city, Maybe one of the two remaining cities along the coast. These represent the best troops from Ukraine so they will have an easier time taking other cities.At the dawn of the 35th day, 5 weeks into the Russo-Ukrainian War, I thought I would post an update and attempt at some analysis. I have been really busy and dealing with things IRL. I have been following the thread here, but not been posting.
That said, this thread has a serious digression problem. We really, really need to focus on the war itself, not other nations and their internal squabbles. Not possibly - in a carnival mirror sort of way - analogues with other places in the world. Unless we can demonstrate why historical event is a direct tie to what is happening and it is spelled out, we should leave that for other discussions and other threads. We are and should be better than this...this mess...this thread has become. We have a crap ton of propaganda to sort through and knowledge to gain. This war is a tragedy. There's little any of us can do to change its course, but we can learn from it. Focus, folks.
Most of this is purely my opinion and worth as much as you have paid for it and even then it's not even worth that. My opinions are purely subjective and you should take with a grain of salt. More than a grain of salt. A lot more.
1. Russia is probably winning. I am starting to have a few doubts. Fighting has stalled in Kiev. In fact, the Russians are claiming they are redeploying forces from there. Progress elsewhere has been stymied. The Donbas kessel appears to not exist. The push towards Odesa is, well, toast, afaict, with the Ukrainians pushing back to the outskirts of Kherson. I think the next three weeks will be critical. As I have said before, if Russia is still fighting this war in July, they are in deep, awful trouble.
2. Now then, let me say I was wrong. Again. I expected Russia to have taken Mauripol by now and just be dealing with some minor mop up actions. That has still not happened. Should I venture another guess? Or am I somehow cursing the Russian effort down there? Where can I properly hone this power? Just kidding. So at 6 weeks, will the Russians have finished their conquest of Mauripol? I would think so, but, hell, I've been rather wrong here. I expected this to be done and over two to three weeks ago.
3. I do not think the push in the north was a feint. Ritter's statement of it being so doesn't pass the sniff test of the amount of resources committed. The push on Kiev and the north was massive. There would be no need for the meat grinder seen there if it was a feint. Feints are best with a few skirmishes and threats, not real engagements and huge numbers of troops. I do agree with the assessment about the marines and Odesa being a feint. That operation works exactly as a feint should: drawing off troops in excess and out of proportion of what you have committed.
4. Belarus still hasn't joined the fight. No Brest front so far. I am beginning to think there will not be one nor will Belarus join.
5. Kiev stands. Kharkov stands. Sumy stands. Ukraine appears to be conducting at least some counteroffensives. The most successful appears to be the push towards Kherson. Interesting. Let's see if it holds true.
6. As it stands, it appears Russia has lost 10% of the BTGs' equipment it had positioned at the start of the war. Yup, 13 BTG of tanks, APCs and IFVs have been lost. However, another 6 tank battalions worth of, well, tanks are also lost. IDK if Russia deployed independent tank battalions or not as I have not found a satisfactory answer yet. 10% of the APCs+IFVs and around 25% of the tanks the Russians started with are gone. This is, yes, based on Oryx's site.
7. I also wanted to see if I could get a good guessimate - less than a real estimate, more than a guess - on the deaths and casualties the Russians had suffered. Using the number of destroyed IFVs, APCs, tanks and MT-LBs, I came up around 2,800 Russian soldiers KIA and assuming 3x wounded 8,400. This could be about 500 less, depending on the role the MT-LB was being used for at the time. Also, this is the front-line poor bloody infantry and the rats in a can, ahem, tankers only. The infantry + tankers of a BTG are about 350 souls. That in turn implies 6 to 8 BTG worth of infantry+tankers dead and 18 to 24 BTG combat troops wounded. We see a 18% to 24% of combat troops the army the Russians moved into Ukraine have been chewed up. These numbers don't include the logistics or artillery or other troops. if we did the overly simplistic casualties, this would just add up to 14 BTGs. Likewise, I expect the actual deaths among the infantry to be much, much worse. The percentage above could be the reason why the Russian advances have slowed so much. Or I could be full of crap, too. Even so, I think I find my numbers more plausible than what either the Ukrainians or Russians are publishing.
8. Even so, as I write the above, we know the Russians have reinforced: the Chechens are a prime example. Troops from Ossetia are another. The peacekeepers from Armenia are still more. They have more formations in country at this point than the original 130 BTGs. We know more reinforcements are coming from the Far East, for that matter, too. That would strongly imply, due to the transit time, Russia is committed to a longer war.
9. I have no insight as to what the Ukrainian losses are other than it isn't good.
10. The VKS is running 200 to 300 missons/day now. Welcome to the party, pal! The poor Russian grunts on the ground would have loved to have you weeks ago.
11. @Temstar asked why the Russians were hitting the Ukrainian fuel depots. IMO, it is an attempt to prevent the Ukrainians to be able to do major armored offensives. It doesn't matter if the Ukrainians preserve an armored corps for later if they don't have or can't get fuel. No gas: no go. It will be interesting to see if NATO et al start supplying fuel and other logistics trucks. If we do see that, I have a hunch the Ukrainians are not just going to do localized counteroffensives.
12. Someone asked why the Ukrainians are fighting for their government if it is as corrupt and awful as it is. It's not about the government. This is about their homes. 25%+ of Ukrainians are displaced now. After the war, Zelensky may end up vilified. For now, Ukrainians are mad as hell and fighting like demons simply because their supposed 'brother' nation just invaded. Invaded, burned and killed. If Abel survived Cain (Qābīl and Hābīl), then the Old Testament of the Bible would look really different. Ukrainian rage, people, is incandescent now. Please, don't underestimate it.
Prognostication! Or my very unprofitable prophecies. bet against them, folks! Not with them! I won't be responsible for your lost dinero. That said...
A. The next three to five weeks are critical. I think we will see the Ukrainians run up the kill score on Russian equipment. General Mud doesn't signal his withdrawal until May, so until then, the defenders will have the advantage: the Russians will be restricted to the roads which in this case are as much a chokepoint as any canyon, mountain pass or river valley. Once the Raputitsa slackens and dies out, Ukraine turns into beautiful tank warfare country. That will favor the Russians, if they have not become too chewed up before then.
B. In the mean time, if the Russians are able to reinforce more and free up troops from Mauripol, they can regain the momentum they had early on. If the Russians cannot shift their troops or reinforce enough, General Mud's withdrawal from the fields will favor a serious Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Right now, I think the Russians are probably going to win. I stress probably. Not absolutely. I am no 100% longer certain. The Russian army has failed to meet many of the objectives I have expected of them by this point: in fact, almost all. They didn't defeat Kiev in 72 hours. They didn't do it in 15 days. The new goal post I've read is victory day in May for the planned victory. We shall see.
FWIW, in another week, they will have taken as long as the US initial conquest of Iraq. TBF, Ukraine is about 50% bigger than Iraq. OTOH, Russia borders Ukraine so it doesn't have to ship its logistics half way around the world. OTGH, it is pretty clear the war has not gone according to plan. Yet, no plan ever survives contact with the enemy, as they say. It will all depend if Russia's military can adapt to the far greater resistance than they clearly expected. Time will tell.
Again, worth as much as you paid for it. I have been wrong before and will be again. I freely admit that.
Please, be safe, well and remember all sides are sholving bovine excrement at rates faster than bulls and heifers in the world can produce it. It's pretty astounding, actually. Let's keep the thread on target. We've been lucky the mods have not dropped another nuke on us.
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
- Start date
- Status
I think if the Russians are able to take Mariupol and then take out the 40-60K Ukrainian troops in East Ukraine, it would free up a large number of troops to start another fight in a different city, Maybe one of the two remaining cities along the coast. These represent the best troops from Ukraine so they will have an easier time taking other cities.
lcloo
Captain
So now the alphabets starts from A and end with Y.... Zoro the movies is banned too? Or should they re-title it as Oro? LOL!!!It's President Elensky now....
Kiev calls on world to ban ‘Z’
Ukraine’s foreign minister says the letter symbolizes Russia’s military offensive
A column of Russian military equipment on the highway in the vicinity of Kherson. © Sputnik
Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmitry Kuleba has urged the global community to ban the Latin letter “Z” since, from Kiev’s point of view, it represents Russia’s military attack on the country.
“I call on all states to criminalize the use of the ‘Z’ symbol as a way to publicly support Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” Kuleba wrote on Twitter on Tuesday. He added that ‘Z’ means “Russian war crimes, bombed out cities, thousands of murdered Ukrainians” and said that “public support of this barbarism must be forbidden.”
Either the letter “Z” or the letter “V” are the two symbols depicted on all vehicles of the Russian army participating in the military operation in Ukraine. In Russia, both letters have become a widespread symbol to support the Kremlin’s military offensive against Kiev. The letters are commonly used on banners and car stickers.
There are many theories about the origins of the symbol. Some commenters have joked that “V” and “Z” represent the initials of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Others have speculated that the letters signify the attachment of a particular vehicle to Russia’s Western or Eastern military detachments.
Moscow’s Ministry of Defense gave its own explanation in an Instagram post in early March, however, hinting that “Z” stands for “victory” while “V” stands for “truth.”
Lithuanian deputies have also proposed criminalizing the letter “Z” along with the St. George ribbon, which is a Russian symbol to commemorate the Great Patriotic War. The legislators proposed equating both with the Nazi swastika and to punish the disposal of Russian symbols with a 500-euro fine.
Meanwhile, according to the German newspaper Bild, the letter “Z” as a symbol of Russia’s military operation has already been banned in some regions of Germany, including Berlin, Bavaria, Lower Saxony, and North Rhine-Westphalia.
Moscow attacked Ukraine in late February, following a seven-year standoff over Kiev’s failure to implement the terms of the Minsk ceasefire agreements, and Russia’s eventual recognition of the Donbass republics in Donetsk and Lugansk. The German- and French-brokered protocols had been designed to regularize the status of those regions within the Ukrainian state.
Russia has now demanded that Ukraine officially declare itself a neutral country that will never join NATO. Kiev says the Russian offensive was completely unprovoked and has denied claims it was planning to retake the Donbass by force.
If the Russians can free up the troops from Mariupol, then they can turn on the Ukrainian troops in the east to pull off the so far mythical kessel. If they can finally do that, they can crush the eastern Ukrainian troops. Or so I would think. You are suggesting exactly what I would do in the Russian situation.
The longer Mariupol takes, the more troops die and less there are from pushing forward to trap the eastern Ukrainians. However, with a longer time frame, the more weapons are shipped to the Ukrainians and while the Russians have deep weapon stores, they are not infinite and may have some issues with how well they have been kept.
If the time for finishing Mariupol is too long, it also allows the Ukrainians to blood their Territorial Defense units and all the folks who have come back to Ukraine. I don't mean the Bugaloo Boy-like morons. I mean the very nontrivial number of Ukrainian men who have returned.
Not gonna discredit your analysis but take the claims from Oryx with pure speculative values, they had exaggerated some of their Russian confirmed losses and this include their photographic evidences, it could just be the same vehicle but photograph from a different angle.
US essentially bordered iraq though as it built up at leisure in Saudi Arabia.
I don't think they're doing puppet government at this point. By the looks of things - passing out money in Kherson and rebuilding in other cities across the south - they're going for the full annexation.
I am sure that is there. We have a paucity of sources, sadly, with tallies that are within plausibility. The Ukrainians and Russians are boratino's triplets at this point.
I will say, to Oryx's credit, multiple times the counts have dropped due to Oryx noting the photos were of duplicates. For example, at one point 8 APCs were removed from the count when they realized it was of ones they already have.
Even so, if I had a better source, I would totally use it.
I do label my my analysis as a guessimate. Better than a pure guess, but definitely not a solid estimate.
Sorta. I understand what you are saying, but the build up was still at the end of a very long shipping tail: literal ships and rails in the US as the bases are placed more for political rather than logical reasons.
The Russians 'just' have to move their equipment by rail.
There was an interesting map of the distance a logistics truck could move equipment and how it mapped to the Russian advance. It was...uncanny...but I have given it some doubt. that's why I have not posted it here. It would make sense if equipment was not palletized. However, surely, Russian logistics have done that. I saw one claim they have not, but...really?
I'm totally willing to accept members' proof or feedback on Russian logistics: I Am Not A Logistics Expert (for the military). I do move and juggle a lot of expensive equipment at work. it's not remotely on the same level.
Fascinating thread from this guy who dissects and criticizes the attribution of losses done by Oryx.
This particular thread is about the BMP-2, but he has done other threads about different vehicles as well. The basic point he makes is that Oryx claims like 50 BMP-2 losses for the Russians, but only 12 of the photos are actually convincing evidence of Russian losses. He picked the BMP-2 because it's a vehicle found in both militaries in large numbers. For the vast majority of photos, attribution is almost impossible for various reasons:
1) Some images are of such low quality that it's impossible to tell who the vehicle belongs to, or even what kind of vehicle it is
2) Certain V or Z markings look artificially painted, and the Ukrainians have been accused by the Russians of simply painting Ukrainian vehicles so as to make them appear as if they belong to the Russian army, then posing for photos to show they "got something."
3) Some images might be clear, but the vehicle is destroyed beyond recognition and cannot be attributed to either side without additional (reliable) information.
Anyway, it's a fascinating read. Before this, I had generally assumed that Oryx's Russian numbers were more or less reliable. My main issue was always with his Ukrainian loss figures, since the real ones are way higher (it's ridiculous to think Ukraine has only lost 12 fighter jets; the real number is more like 50). But now I'm starting to think there may be huge problems with his Russian numbers too. Is Oryx reliable, or is he just an anti-Russian shill looking to make a quick buck on Patreon by artificially inflating and bullshitting Russian equipment losses? Thoughts welcome.
This particular thread is about the BMP-2, but he has done other threads about different vehicles as well. The basic point he makes is that Oryx claims like 50 BMP-2 losses for the Russians, but only 12 of the photos are actually convincing evidence of Russian losses. He picked the BMP-2 because it's a vehicle found in both militaries in large numbers. For the vast majority of photos, attribution is almost impossible for various reasons:
1) Some images are of such low quality that it's impossible to tell who the vehicle belongs to, or even what kind of vehicle it is
2) Certain V or Z markings look artificially painted, and the Ukrainians have been accused by the Russians of simply painting Ukrainian vehicles so as to make them appear as if they belong to the Russian army, then posing for photos to show they "got something."
3) Some images might be clear, but the vehicle is destroyed beyond recognition and cannot be attributed to either side without additional (reliable) information.
Anyway, it's a fascinating read. Before this, I had generally assumed that Oryx's Russian numbers were more or less reliable. My main issue was always with his Ukrainian loss figures, since the real ones are way higher (it's ridiculous to think Ukraine has only lost 12 fighter jets; the real number is more like 50). But now I'm starting to think there may be huge problems with his Russian numbers too. Is Oryx reliable, or is he just an anti-Russian shill looking to make a quick buck on Patreon by artificially inflating and bullshitting Russian equipment losses? Thoughts welcome.
I...don't think Oryx is accurate. Its list of Ukrainian losses is a joke. I think we all agree on that! I think Oryx's list of Russian losses is probably within an 80% accurate, but prone to nontrivial error. As I noted, they had some 68 APCs (iirc) lost at one point and retracted 8 of them as dupes: that goes to their credit, actually. Are there more dupes in there? Absolutely!
As for Ukrainians painting Zs and other symbols on their own losses? Possible, even probable at times. However, we have seen Russian equipment in use by Russians with some slapdash Zs and Vs and other symbols painted on. If you think soldiers are going to be meticulous about everything they do, I have a bridge to sell you from Crimea to Odesa.
Are they grifting? That I cannot answer. I have to say I would be shocked! shocked! shocked, I tell you! if there were sleezy grifters who are taking advantage of the war. (note: that's sarcasm, just in case for someone not familiar with my prose). There are tons of people doing that and it is disgusting. Is Oryx? IDK.
- Status