Ukrainian War Developments

Status
Not open for further replies.
W

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
Not that big of a loss tbh. At this point I'd be surprised if Ukraine has GDP per capita of Syria when it's over. Losing the current occupation gains alone means it lost almost all heavy industry, almost all black sea EEZ, entire Sea of Azov and control of the Dnieper.

Does EU want a white Afghanistan? Because that's what they're getting when this is over unless Ukraine can actually counterattack and push Russia out of Kherson at minimum.

And if they do, great. GDP per capita of EU plummets, refugees flood Schengen zone, everyone treats them worse than Polish and Romanians... And we all know how badly they're treated.
Click to expand...
Russia will use thermobaric bombs and Daisy cutters against military attempts to take Kherson...
Abominable said:
When Putin started the war the goals he set meant the Ukrainian state would have to be overthrown. If he wanted a war to just liberate the Donbass, he should have said that.

I'm not alone in what I'm saying, it's what every single Russian military commentator is saying right now. I'm sure it's the opinion every single Russian general and 90% of people around Putin as well. He's gradually replaced the pro-western individuals with Eurasian ones. He's pretty much the only Yeltsin era Atlanticist left in the Kremlin, although we thought his views had changed.

It won't be cheap to occupy the Ukraine, but then you have to ask why he started the war in the first place. Wars never make financial sense.

We'll have to see if this peace treaty is real or not. My instinct tells me that Putin would never agree to it, but he's getting awfully close to signing the dotted line.

Most Russian military commentators are saying it's just political theatre, so I suppose I'll treat it as such until it actually happens.
Click to expand...
Realistically, conquering Ukraine and/or replacing Zelensky with an unpopular pro Russian puppet cannot be done without greatly costing Russia. Even without having a pro Russian regime installed in Moscow, Russian can obtain a major permanent or very long term objective of its, which is neutrality of Ukraine. Many people dismiss Ukraine officially declaring neutrality as merely paper neutrality that Ukraine could at any time decide to breach even without provocation. Those making such an argument often forget that even if it does so, it will likely not have the backing of NATO and any future Russian retaliation and punitive action by Russia for undertaking such a provocation will be borne largely by itself, and there will not be any appetite among most major NATO countries for another confrontation with Russia caused by Ukraine's provocations.

Among the points that you commented on was Ukraine's willingness to actually accept neutrality without actually resolving the situation of the Donbass and Crimea. It says that would be a subject of other talks. If that is true, it would be effectively a capitulation of de facto acceptance of the loss of the Donbass Region and Crimea. That is a major climb down by Ukraine even though it falls short of actually formally conceding the loss of those two territories.
 
W

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
If there is no continuous land bridge from Donbass to Crimea or control of Kherson, Russia lost badly. This is the bare minimum to make the war worth it. They absolutely need Kherson and Zhaphorizhzhia Oblasts.

An important but secondary goal should be pushing to natural borders for a buffer zone for the previous conquests, and this will require more troops in the east. I suspect that's what they're going to use the redeployed troops for.
Click to expand...

Abominable said:
In Mariupol, I think a substantial percentage of Azov fighters are still alive. If you watch their twitter page, it looks like may they've lost their commander and deputy commander as they aren't posting videos anymore, but 2-3 commanders are still alive and have been posting videos for more than a month now.

I'd say they're down to 50% strength at best. The Russian plan seems to be working fine, kettling them into a smaller and smaller region of the city. I think it'll end with a final surrender offer, then TOS-1 them once they're in a small enough area. If the Russians want style points they'll use a FOAB.
Click to expand...
Mariupol has been effectively lost to Russia... There will continue to be pockets here and there able to to conduct minor attacks and also ambush a few vehicles, but let's get real... Mariupol is finished for the Azov Regiments and their allies.
 
W

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Overbom said:
I think it should be everything east of the Dnieper (Kharkiv included). Mind you, that's the bare minimum. The costs that Russia has suffered are way too large for it to go away without at least E+S Ukraine.
Click to expand...
Says who? You think that gaining all such territory, much of it greatly hostile and unfriendly to Russia intrinsically negates from such results as:

- neutrality of Ukraine
- taking of Donbass
- recognition of Crimea

?

A neutral Ukraine goes a long way towards alleviating Russia's security concerns.
 
O

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Weaasel said:
Says who? You think that gaining all such territory, much of it greatly hostile and unfriendly to Russia intrinsically negates from such results as:

- neutrality of Ukraine
- taking of Donbass
- recognition of Crimea

?

A neutral Ukraine goes a long way towards alleviating Russia's security concerns.
Click to expand...
Not buying that. The costs that Russia has suffered are simply too big to be traded with a piece of paper saying that Ukraine is neutral and taking Donbas
 
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Strangelove said:
From "Where's Peng?" to "Where's Shoigu?"...now that he's appeared, he could be a stunt double/clone/actor with a mask...

View attachment 86153
Click to expand...
Unlike most western propaganda, I think there was some truth to the Shoigu rumours. He, like most Soviet era Russian generals are very anti-west. I'm sure many want to continue the war into eastern Europe, using nukes if necessary. Some of the decisions being made in this war are bound to be upsetting them to say the least.

His press conference was interesting. He's announced a "reduction in military activity" in Kiev. Whether that means a withdrawal or some sort of local ceasefire we'll wait and see. If they aren't prepared to anything in Kiev it probably makes sense to redeploy them in the east, although that would be seen as a "victory" for Ukraine.
Also no mobilisation of reserve forces now, they will be called in a few months as planned for rotations.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top