Ukrainian War Developments

[FairAndUnbiased]

When Putin started the war the goals he set meant the Ukrainian state would have to be overthrown. If he wanted a war to just liberate the Donbass, he should have said that.

I'm not alone in what I'm saying, it's what every single Russian military commentator is saying right now. I'm sure it's the opinion every single Russian general and 90% of people around Putin as well. He's gradually replaced the pro-western individuals with Eurasian ones. He's pretty much the only Yeltsin era Atlanticist left in the Kremlin, although we thought his views had changed.

It won't be cheap to occupy the Ukraine, but then you have to ask why he started the war in the first place. Wars never make financial sense.

We'll have to see if this peace treaty is real or not. My instinct tells me that Putin would never agree to it, but he's getting awfully close to signing the dotted line.

Most Russian military commentators are saying it's just political theatre, so I suppose I'll treat it as such until it actually happens.

If there is no continuous land bridge from Donbass to Crimea or control of Kherson, Russia lost badly. This is the bare minimum to make the war worth it. They absolutely need Kherson and Zhaphorizhzhia Oblasts.

An important but secondary goal should be pushing to natural borders for a buffer zone for the previous conquests, and this will require more troops in the east. I suspect that's what they're going to use the redeployed troops for.

 

[ArmchairAnalyst]

If the war ends with:

Ukrainian neutrality regarding NATO
Recognition of Crimea as part of Russia
Recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent republics
Lifting of most Western sanctions

...in my book that would actually count as a rather big win and the best possible outcome for Putin and Russia from an objective point of view regardless what the maximalist nuke'em'alls in this thread might think blatantly forgetting what realpolitik is all about when all is said and done.

 

[RottenPanzer]

Heard that the Russians are now withdrawing from Kiev front
Any reasoning why is this happening? Was it part of the negotiations in Istanbul from few hours ago?

 

[Abominable]

In Mariupol, I think a substantial percentage of Azov fighters are still alive. If you watch their twitter page, it looks like may they've lost their commander and deputy commander as they aren't posting videos anymore, but 2-3 commanders are still alive and have been posting videos for more than a month now.

I'd say they're down to 50% strength at best. The Russian plan seems to be working fine, kettling them into a smaller and smaller region of the city. I think it'll end with a final surrender offer, then TOS-1 them once they're in a small enough area. If the Russians want style points they'll use a FOAB.

 

[Overbom]

Heard that the Russians are now withdrawing from Kiev front
Any reasoning why is this happening? Was it part of the negotiations in Istanbul from few hours ago?

IMO they are going to focus on the cauldron which holds about 60k Ukrainian troops in the East.

 

[Jingle Bells]

Erm, no. Russia-west alliance would be bad for China, which is what this surrender treaty is.

Oh well, it'll just be another Anglo government we need to overthrow when the time comes.

hahahahaha, dude, I smell your wounded pride.

 

[Atomicfrog]

Heard that the Russians are now withdrawing from Kiev front
Any reasoning why is this happening? Was it part of the negotiations in Istanbul from few hours ago?

Nope, it was a diversion to stall Ukrainian troops until air superiority was taken. They will redistribute in the east and anything that move will be bombed.

 

[Stealthflanker]

I can see a calm before the storm.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

If the war ends with:

Ukrainian neutrality regarding NATO
Recognition of Crimea as part of Russia
Recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent republics
Lifting of most Western sanctions

...in my book that would actually count as a rather big win and the best possible outcome for Putin and Russia from an objective point of view regardless what the maximalist nuke'em'alls in this thread might think blatantly forgetting what realpolitik is all about when all is said and done.

It would be a massive defeat without taking Kherson and Zhaphorizhzhia Oblasts at minimum (which are already Russian occupied) because none of the real problems would be solved. Ukraine can still cut Crimean water supply, there is still no natural border with Donbass to prevent incursions on either side, Ukraine would feel both vengeful and emboldened. It would set the stage for an even worse war later like WW1 was for WW2.

 

[Overbom]

It would be a massive defeat without taking Kherson and Zhaphorizhzhia Oblasts at minimum (which are already Russian occupied) because none of the real problems would be solved. Ukraine can still cut Crimean water supply, there is still no natural border with Donbass to prevent incursions on either side, Ukraine would feel both vengeful and emboldened. It would set the stage for an even worse war later like WW1 was for WW2.

Eastern and South Ukraine is the minimum for me. Anything less than this, and I would consider it a failure