Ukrainian War Developments

[JamesRed]

If sanctions are dropped as well, I'd say taking all of LPR + DPR (not just what they have now but everything Ukraine gained in 2015-2018 which includes Mariupol), recognition of Crimea and constitutional change to neutrality is just a minor failure for Russia and a win for Ukraine.

This is essentially Russia offering a surrender, they have what they absolutely 100% need and no more. But as the Ukrainian situation gets more desperate they will be forced to make actual concessions.

I don't believe anyone except the Twitter experts are thinking there's any way that Ukraine wins. The damage that has been inflicted on them is pretty severe from what I have seen.

 

[taxiya]

there is no realistic way because the chinese diplomatic corp either 1) still has no real fundamental understanding of how the political and economic system truly works and what the real interests and interactions of the players are, or 2) can’t put any such understanding into effective action because it would deviate from and reveal flaws in the communist party’s dogma, or the senior leadership’s perception about how things really work at upper levels in the world outside china.

You are basically playing a straw man game.

Firstly, you forced your own imagined political purpose onto China. Then, because China is not doing it, you declared that China's diplomatic corp is incompetent.

Why do you think you know what others want? Are you a parasite in others' brain? This is a question that you have been asked numerous times and you have refused to answer numerous times. Who do you think you are?

Again, are you majored in international diplomacy? China study? Lived in China for major part of your life? Have direct interaction with Chinese people from China? I am not even asking you if you have ever talked to Chinese policy makers.

Your mouth is apparently bigger than your brain.

 

[Richard Santos]

What's the opportunity?
Politicians in Europe have been screaming China is an enabler of Russian aggression.

Anything short of Chinese sanctions or a public denouncement of Russia's actions will sate them, and that won't stop future sanctions on China, or any attempts to stop China-Russia trade. Or purposeful acts to get closer to Taiwan, to teach China the EU can't be bullied.

Political capital is a vague thing, it sometimes doesn't really exist because what you think is goodwill doesn't translate to anything.

the opportunity is for china to be a signer of any armistice and a member on any arbitration board or similar adjudicating body for post war disputes between Russia and whoever their counterparty would be.

The aim is not to earn browny points. the political capital comes from more people having to secure your cooperation to get things they wanted done.

If europe has to secure chinese cooperation for mundane interaction with russia in eastern europe, china would have come our way ahead and it would be a huge set back for the US.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

China’s opportunity is not to clean up the mess but to get paid (in influence and political credit) for appearing to clean it up. There is definitely such an opportunity, but china is not well prepared to capitalize on it.

I agree that China can potentially gain from doing so. However, this call by the EU and US is most likely not done so in good faith. The US would try to sabotage any Chinese attempts at brokering a deal and then pin the blame on China. At the very least, the US would love to see the Chinese brokering a deal which involves states being allowed to secede from a sovereign nation by popular referendum. Before you know it, the US will be calling for popular referendums in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Taiwan.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I don't believe anyone except the Twitter experts are thinking there's any way that Ukraine wins. The damage that has been inflicted on them is pretty severe from what I have seen.

Then they'd be fools to not take the Russian deal which expires when the shooting starts again. Like Lavrov said every time they reject a deal the terms get worse.

 

[TK3600]

The twitter propagandist says
The laptop is a 14-year-old Lenovo R500 with 250MB of RAM. It came with Windows Vista. I wonder if it even turns on.

But Lenovo disagrees, look here.

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Memory
PC3-8500 1066MHz DDR3, non-parity, dual-channel capable Two 204-pin SO-DIMM sockets; The use of 1066 MHz SO DIMM memory is recommended for this system. 1GB or 2GB standard memory Supports maximum memory up to 4GB Recommended for memory expansion are 1 GB, and 2 GB PC3-8500 DDR3 1066MHz SO DIMM Intel Turbo Memory 2GB Note: Only 64-bit operating systems support more than 3GB of system memory (RAM).

250mb ram is not supported by vista minimum spec.

 

[4Runner]

There is no point in trying to collect brownie point from the west when they are hell bent trying to contain china and impede or putting road block to china advances in technology, influence in 3rd world. Let them stew on their own juices. Russia is important as China hinterland in future conflict against the west. Beside it is China turn to repay Soviet Union support in WW II. Here is China moral obligation to repay past debt!

I would differ on this point. China and USSR were even after the Forgotten War. The 156 projects were sort of compensation from URRS to China. Therefore, before 1991, China and USSR were absolutely even. But since then, China did take advantage of some projects, such as Su27/J11 contract. But nothing major. So there is no such thing of China indebted to Russia in any meaningful way. This time, the quasi-alliance is entirely made in USA.

 

[taxiya]

250mb ram is not supported by vista minimum spec.

The trick all these propagandists do and often succeed is that majority of commoners do not have the knowledge to verify or simply don't care for truth, but blindly believe in it and even worse, spreading it.

 

[tokenanalyst]

What's the opportunity?
Politicians in Europe have been screaming China is an enabler of Russian aggression.

Anything short of Chinese sanctions or a public denouncement of Russia's actions will sate them, and that won't stop future sanctions on China, or any attempts to stop China-Russia trade. Or purposeful acts to get closer to Taiwan, to teach China the EU can't be bullied.

Political capital is a vague thing, it sometimes doesn't really exist because what you think is goodwill doesn't translate to anything.

The problem is that with now Russia being more aggressive, they may be willing to put China out the Russia sphere to weaken Russia by giving concessions to China in some aspect. They can't afford deal with Russia and China at the same time.

 

[JamesRed]

Then they'd be fools to not take the Russian deal which expires when the shooting starts again. Like Lavrov said every time they reject a deal the terms get worse.

I agree, but there's actual people assessing the situation as "Ukraine is winning" as in inflicting mass casualties on the Russian army. Many of these stories were outright fabrications coming from the highest mouthpieces of the Ukrainian government. Russia will inevitably shift its financial services sector towards Asia and once this happens it has no reason to compromise. The longer Ukraine waits, the less likely there will be a Russian deal.