Ukrainian War Developments

[Overbom]

True but this deal is still much better than I'd thought for Ukraine. It is the absolute minimum for Russian to be able to walk away with face and they still give up substantial gains on the ground in exchange for 2014-2015 borders (before Ukraine retook half of Donetsk and Lugansk).

If they don't take the deal now it is going to get worse not only in terms but for their infrastructure destruction. Right now there are still intact cities, the longer the fighting goes the worse the rebuilding would be.

It depends if this deal is about a ceasefire or a final deal. If it is about a final deal then this is a complete strategic failure for Russia.

If ceasefire, it is ok, unless they drag out the final deal negotiations, in which case it will also be just slightly less of a complete strategic failure.

The amount of economic damage that Russia has taken from those sanctions mean that if they don't get a huge amount of geostrategic land, either annex or vassal state, out of this attack then it is a failure.

Win/defeat can only be seen on what Russia has lost on this invasion and what it will gain.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

There actually is a golden opportunity here for canny and skilled Chinese diplomacy to insert China semi-permanently into Europe as a major player in internal Eastern European diplomatic affairs at the other end of belt and road.

However, at the risk of offending much of the contingent here, I have to say Chinese diplomacy has been singularly inept at comprehending and adapting to the internal views, perceptions and political realities of other states, so China has little chance of being able to successful capitalize on this opportunity.

I don't think it is china obligation or moral responsibility to clean up somebody else mess. Like they say you broke it you owned it!

 

[Richard Santos]

And what does this say about the US understanding Russia's point of view about NATO?

The case in point is the constant expansion of NATO which is aimed at Russia. The current crisis started with the "U.S. and Ukraine signing a Charter on Strategic Partnership, which asserted America’s support for Kyiv’s right to pursue membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization." on November 10th 2021. Afterwards, Russia mobilised its military and the US government believed that Putin was willing to go to war. Apparently the US government spent 3 months trying to convince China that Russia was actually going to invade. Why on earth didn't the US speak to Russia directly, if they believed Russia was deadly serious about an invasion?

This single failure of US diplomacy is bigger than every Chinese diplomatic failure in the past 30 years.

Sources below

wsj.com/amp/articles/cause-ukraine-war-robert-service-moscow-putin-lenin-stalin-history-communism-invasion-kgb-fsb-11646413200

nytimes.com/2022/02/25/us/politics/us-china-russia-ukraine.html

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Remember that the US is used to throwing it's weight around without regard for anyone else, and creating its own reality that everyone else has to follow, because it was that powerful.

On the diplomatic side, I see Chinese diplomacy being far more sophisticated (and targeted) than the US. That starts with China posting diplomats who can actually speak the local language of the countries they are sent to.

Then we will have more situations where China creates realities that everyone else has to follow.

The US has little real understanding of how the current russian government works, probably less than it did of how the kremlin worked during the cold war. the US has also largely forgotten about how nicety of diplomacy in the setting of nuclear stand off and mutually assured destruction works. This is because the US political system privilege hacks and braggarts over professionals in normal times when it thinks it has room to maneuver. These are the reasons why we are here.

But that does not change the fact that there is a major opportunity for china which china is very likely totally unable to capitalize on because blinders abs deficiencies of chinese understanding of how this part of the world works,

 

[Weaasel]

Sounds like BS. I am not saying there is nothing true in that text. But the idea that whole focus of the operation was to capture Kiev and kill or capture Zelensky makes zero sense. Just look at the directions of offensive thrust. There was a single thrust towards Kiev and multiple thrusts in the Northeast, East, and South. In fact the main focus of the operation seems to be to take control of the Russian ethnic populated regions with Kiev being a secondary objective or feint. @plawolf already provided a good rationale for why the Russians went for the airport near Kiev. Which makes much more sense than this.
The article is also wrong in that the Russian government did announce a mobilization right when the war started. Less than 1/3rd of the active Russian Army is committed to the operation. The counter insurgency phase, when it begins, will also likely not be just Russian Army units but also Russian National Guard and MVD troops. The National Guard alone has around 350,000 troops.

It would be terrible for Russia be the target of a counterinsurgency in Ukraine.

 

[JamesRed]

It would be terrible for Russia be the target of a counterinsurgency in Ukraine.

The lowest GDP per capita in Europe is going to have a counterinsurgency against Russia, who got rid of their corrupt puppet government? Sounds like wishful thinking from western intelligence.

 

[Richard Santos]

I don't think it is china obligation or moral responsibility to clean up somebody else mess. Like they say you broke it you owned it!

China’s opportunity is not to clean up the mess but to get paid (in influence and political credit) for appearing to clean it up. There is definitely such an opportunity, but china is not well prepared to capitalize on it.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

China’s opportunity is not to clean up the mess but to get paid (in influence and political credit) for appearing to clean it up. There is definitely such an opportunity, but china is not well prepared to capitalize on it.

There is no point in trying to collect brownie point from the west when they are hell bent trying to contain china and impede or putting road block to china advances in technology, influence in 3rd world. Let them stew on their own juices. Russia is important as China hinterland in future conflict against the west. Beside it is China turn to repay Soviet Union support in WW II. Here is China moral obligation to repay past debt!

 

[lube]

China’s opportunity is not to clean up the mess but to get paid (in influence and political credit) for appearing to clean it up. There is definitely such an opportunity, but china is not well prepared to capitalize on it.

What's the opportunity?
Politicians in Europe have been screaming China is an enabler of Russian aggression.

Anything short of Chinese sanctions or a public denouncement of Russia's actions will sate them, and that won't stop future sanctions on China, or any attempts to stop China-Russia trade. Or purposeful acts to get closer to Taiwan, to teach China the EU can't be bullied.

Political capital is a vague thing, it sometimes doesn't really exist because what you think is goodwill doesn't translate to anything.

 

[Weaasel]

The lowest GDP per capita in Europe is going to have a counterinsurgency against Russia, who got rid of their corrupt puppet government? Sounds like wishful thinking from western intelligence.

The lowest GDP per capita in Europe is going to have a counterinsurgency against Russia, who got rid of their corrupt puppet government? Sounds like wishful thinking from western intelligence.

Countries with lower GDP per capita have had counter insurgencies against militarily more powerful opponents.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

It depends if this deal is about a ceasefire or a final deal. If it is about a final deal then this is a complete strategic failure for Russia.

If ceasefire, it is ok, unless they drag out the final deal negotiations, in which case it will also be just slightly less of a complete strategic failure.

The amount of economic damage that Russia has taken from those sanctions mean that if they don't get a huge amount of geostrategic land, either annex or vassal state, out of this attack then it is a failure.

Win/defeat can only be seen on what Russia has lost on this invasion and what it will gain.

If sanctions are dropped as well, I'd say taking all of LPR + DPR (not just what they have now but everything Ukraine gained in 2015-2018 which includes Mariupol), recognition of Crimea and constitutional change to neutrality is just a minor failure for Russia and a win for Ukraine.

This is essentially Russia offering a surrender, they have what they absolutely 100% need and no more. But as the Ukrainian situation gets more desperate they will be forced to make actual concessions.