Ukrainian War Developments

[Overbom]

Unconfirmed
"Russian Navy Project 22160 patrol ship Vasily Bykov reportedly targeted in GRAD shelling in Black Sea last night"

Low res photo

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500797084726964231

 

[Weaasel]

humiliating defeat if true

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500800443110281217

How is it a humiliating defeat?

 

[Pmichael]

No.

No.

The interest of Ukraine is anything that stops the ongoing annihilation of Ukraine.

Ukraine has every reason to give Russia a lot. You seem unable to comprehend what the phrase "ongoing annihilation of Ukraine" means. There is no Ghost/Cucumber/Cougar of Kiev coming to save Ukraine.

Time will tell, your assessment isn’t realistic.

Russia can pivot their economy in the next 5~10 years. Can Europe actually fix their already pre-invasion broken economy and come out of it stronger without cheap Russian energy? Because an Ukraine will need an Europe willing to help them rebuild by either building or financing the restoration.

Russia’s industrial base is destroyed they are going to sell half of the country to China at this point. Also interesting claiming Europe can’t compensate the energy prices while Russia can casually rebuilt their entire isolated economic system within a decade… interesting.

after all we are talking about a country that had half a decade to prepare for this war and failed completely. At least a bunch of higher ups got nice boats and houses outside of Russia.

 

[gelgoog]

Russia’s industrial base is destroyed they are going to sell half of the country to China at this point. Also interesting claiming Europe can’t compensate the energy prices while Russia can casually rebuilt their entire isolated economic system within a decade… interesting.

If the alternative is Russia being fragmented into pieces by US and NATO influence they would rather pay vassalage to China. Russia historically chose being subjugated under the Tatars rather than suffer under Teutonic influence.

 

[Weaasel]

Russia is already stepping back on their demands. Russia is in desperate need of an exit strategy which also saves Putin’s face. But that’s not in the interest of Ukraine. With the enormous losses and the collapsing economy in Russia Ukraine has no reason to give Russia anything.

You are assuming in the first place to know what Russia's ultimate objectives were and what would be the least acceptable outcome to Russia...

 

[BlackWindMnt]

Time will tell, your assessment isn’t realistic.

Russia’s industrial base is destroyed they are going to sell half of the country to China at this point. Also interesting claiming Europe can’t compensate the energy prices while Russia can casually rebuilt their entire isolated economic system within a decade… interesting.

They are not Isolated, unless China, ASEAN, Africa and India fell to western pressure the last 20min?
We are talking about Russia not some African or Latin American country, the Russia that can make Rockets, modern fighter jets and missiles. Im not saying it will be easy or they won't suffer but this will be a case of what doesn't kill will make you heck of a lot stronger because the west has pretty much played all their economic cards.

 

[Pmichael]

If the alternative is Russia being fragmented into pieces by US and NATO influence they would rather pay vassalage to China. Russia historically chose being subjugated under the Tatars rather than suffer under Teutonic influence.

You are going to pick one story either Europe is completely dependent on Russia making the deconstruction of Russia also the deconstruction of Europe or we are talking about some master plan which at least include many countries not committing suicide

 

[Weaasel]

Time will tell, your assessment isn’t realistic.

Russia’s industrial base is destroyed they are going to sell half of the country to China at this point. Also interesting claiming Europe can’t compensate the energy prices while Russia can casually rebuilt their entire isolated economic system within a decade… interesting.

after all we are talking about a country that had half a decade to prepare for this war and failed completely. At least a bunch of higher ups got nice boats and houses outside of Russia

Time will tell, your assessment isn’t realistic.

Russia’s industrial base is destroyed they are going to sell half of the country to China at this point. Also interesting claiming Europe can’t compensate the energy prices while Russia can casually rebuilt their entire isolated economic system within a decade… interesting.

after all we are talking about a country that had half a decade to prepare for this war and failed completely. At least a bunch of higher ups got nice boats and houses outside of Russia.

You are assuming that Russia truly intended for the conquest of Ukraine and deemed that Zelensky's regime staying in power is totally unacceptable. Russia can go most of the way in attaining its security objectives by ensuring a neutralized Ukraine and also having the status quo antebellum along with neutrality as acceptable to it. There is no way Ukraine is going to join NATO in the future and Russia will be constantly capable of harassing it.

With regards to Russia's industrial base being completely broken, please get real. Russia is an industrialized technologically advanced country that can produce all essential consumer goods and many essential capital goods, and additionally it can also purchase certain goods from China as well...

 

[Pmichael]

They are not Isolated, unless China, ASEAN, Africa and India fell to western pressure the last 20min?
We are talking about Russia not some African or Latin American country, the Russia that can make Rockets, modern fighter jets and missiles. Im not saying it will be easy or they won't suffer but this will be a case of what doesn't kill will make you heck of a lot stronger because the west has pretty much played all their economic cards.

and we are talking about a country with the industrial base smaller than Italy. There is no bright future for Russia. It’s time to face reality. By the way over 50% of trade was done with countries which are now on the unfriendly nations list.

 

[ArmchairAnalyst]

Sweden was NEVER neutral.

Other countries won't let Finland join NATO.

If Ukraine accepts neutrality, so as to avoid a conflict, a number of countries in NATO won't ever allow it to join. Germany and France are not interested in American geopolitical obsession of weakening ever major regional power in Eurasia that is not aligned with it...

I think you are wrong about both Sweden and Finland.

Both would be welcomed into NATO if they actually did apply for membership:

1) The open-door policy of NATO. The organization has stated this time and again.
2) Already existing deep bilateral defense cooperation between both countries and NATO.
3) Enticement for NATO to accept both as an uno reverse card against Russia. A political statement if you will.
4) The other Nordic countries, Denmark and Norway, are already NATO members and will without doubt pave the way, just like they did with the Baltic states which were much more problematic for NATO and Russia.

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Anyways, this discussion belongs better here: Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis