Ukrainian War Developments

[Nobaru]

Oh yeah it's the big bad boogie man's fault. Surely none of the responsibility for this mess rests with Putin.

Owh no, the "professionally oppressed" people have woken up.
Now i am gonna face full wrath of free speech.
It's always fault of someone else's when entire population is as incompetent as those of U.S's & they need to feel important. Isn't that why you are afraid of government that doesn't kiss you people's azz?
Or should i address you as the "power sources" because you are a "dramacracy"?
Pretending to fix government doesn't cover for stupid masses

 

[Weaasel]

I think repeating Grozny on Kyiv would actually bring in NATO intervention. Too many people (Blue eyed Europeans) dying.

Putin can't even start looking for a way out without some sort of 'long term' victory in Ukraine. He has no off-ramp, and most of the damaging costs have already been incurred.

Which means taking the rubble that will be Kyiv and crippling Ukraine is acceptable in Putin's mind, since Ukrainians will hate Russia for generations now anyway.

He does have an off-ramp. Neutrality demand in return for the status quo antebellum.

 

[Nobaru]

Continued! OMG! I'm so sorry, Diarrhea of the keyboard here...

A few final thoughts.

The rage I mentioned before is only growing. The Russians have not only failed to break the morale of the Ukrainians, but have inflamed their anger to levels I've never seen before. It will take some major events to break the Ukrainians. Even if the Russians take Ukraine, I suspect this will be a massive quagmire soaking up and killing a lot of young men needed at home. Installing a puppet regime will be a failure without breaking the Ukrainians. As soon as the Russians go home, the puppet will be tossed onto the fire.

I currently give the Ukrainians a 10% chance of surviving this war and a 90% chance of Russian defeating Ukraine and its current government. However, if the offensive into Kiev fails to take the city and/or the logistics falls apart completely (see tweet pasted below Narasova's testimony link), then the Ukrainians will rapidly start increasing their changes of victory.

On the funny and weird side, beware the tractor that comes in the night and always, always take the stairs in an emergency or war.

Last thought: resist propaganda. If there's no way to prove it, at best, file it under interesting if true. Just because something is against your personal thoughts and biases, doesn't mean its wrong. Likewise, if it merely confirms what you think, still express skepticism. We have some wildly intelligent people here. Don't let confirmation bias lead you astray.

In wrap up, be safe. Be on topic. Be skeptical. Be respectful. This war has a long, long ways to go.

Narasova's testimony link:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500675493158342661

I feel your pain brah

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“I don’t think anyone in the United States thinks that Ukraine’s security is worth taking that level of risk,” he added.

Pretty disappointing from "free" peoples

those big bhaad RS-28s

 

[Weaasel]

Difference of course is that's a week's worth from Russia. The US did that the first DAY in 2003.

Russia has not come remotely close to the sort of bombardment that the Americans did in Iraq. Not mostly because it can't. But mostly because it doesn't want to...

 

[tygyg1111]

Russia has not come remotely close to the sort of bombardment that the Americans did in Iraq. Not mostly because it can't. But mostly because it doesn't want to...

Could it be that Russia values the human rights of its' Slavic brothers more than the USA does?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Russia might be able to topple the government - with great effort - but it cannot control Ukraine. There will be an insurgency that will be indefinite. Realistically speaking, Russia can offer the status quo ante bellum in exchange for neutrality. There are NATO countries that will NEVER agree to Ukraine joining NATO again after this.

That aside, taking Mariupol will be a huge strategic and symbolic victory for Russia. Kiev is in predominantly Ukrainian speaking Ukraine, and aside from that is a big city. It will too much cost of resources to take it...

Russia doesn't need to control whole Ukraine, just the valuable east and south.

If Russia doesn't walk away crippling Ukraine they've lost. It's a maximalist all in.

 

[lube]

He does have an off-ramp. Neutrality demand in return for the status quo antebellum.

That's not an off-ramp unfortunately. Russia is in too deep like I said.
Non-enforceable neutrality for some status quo is a catastrophic defeat for Putin because thousands have already died on both sides.
The status quo is over, unless the war somehow drags on as long as the stupid Iran-Iraq one.

Almost guaranteed many laws and clauses will be changed for NATO and the EU so neutrality is only on paper. Just to accommodate Ukrainian "neutrality".

 

[Weaasel]

That's not an off-ramp unfortunately. Russia is in too deep like I said.
Non-enforceable neutrality for some status quo is a catastrophic defeat for Putin because thousands have already died on both sides.
The status quo is over, unless the war somehow drags on as long as the stupid Iran-Iraq one.

Almost guaranteed many laws and clauses will be changed for NATO and the EU so neutrality is only on paper. Just to accommodate Ukrainian "neutrality".

It will be a huge capitulation for Ukraine to agree to neutrality and then go ahead and sign on it. Enough NATO countries will never want Ukraine to ever join it. In fact, they will consider it provocation that will justify punitive action by Russia and they won't care the next time around...

 

[horse]

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“If we emerge from Ukraine with the narrative being that a united NATO, a united Europe, were able to face down Putin,” he said, then “we move forward to deal with the inevitable challenges ahead from a position of unity and American leadership.”
If Russia takes over most or all of Ukraine and Mr. Putin is still in charge of a largely stable Russian economy, he added, “welcome to the new world of disorder.”

That's exactly why China will back Russia all the way.

The trade war and tech war, proved that America cannot handle China by itself. It needs strong and willing partners.

The EU today is not what America is looking for. The EU is not exactly strong, and the EU is not exactly willing to join America to confront China.

This Russian action inside the Ukraine weakens the EU, for maybe a long time.

China should just keep its mouth shut!

Bei shou!

Soew seng!

Shut up!

 

[horse]

Shut up!

Damn.

This is like Taoism, the Chung Tzu.

為 無 為 而 無 不 為 .