Neutrality...
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
- Start date
- Status
Russia ups its game again. A day after alleging Ukraine for executing secret nuclear weapon program and tyring to make dirty bombs, Russia made another accusation saying that Ukraine has worked with the US developing bioweapons in the labs bordering Russia.
"According to Sputnik, a Russian news agency, Russian MOD spokesperson Igor Konashenkov said, during the press briefing on Mar 07, that Moscow obtained a document by staff of a bio lab in Ukraine. The document shows that Ukraine, with support from the US, was developing 'bioweapons' in regions close to the Russian borders."
"Konashenkov said 'The document shows that, on Feb 24, the staff of (a) Ukrainian bio lab were rushing to destroy pathogen of diseases, including plague, anthrax, tularemia, cholera and others'. Experts in Russia are analyzing the document. MOD will soon publish the result of analysis."
Screenshot of the news in Russian by Sputnik:
One of the alleged Ukrainian document disclosed by Russia:
"According to Sputnik, a Russian news agency, Russian MOD spokesperson Igor Konashenkov said, during the press briefing on Mar 07, that Moscow obtained a document by staff of a bio lab in Ukraine. The document shows that Ukraine, with support from the US, was developing 'bioweapons' in regions close to the Russian borders."
"Konashenkov said 'The document shows that, on Feb 24, the staff of (a) Ukrainian bio lab were rushing to destroy pathogen of diseases, including plague, anthrax, tularemia, cholera and others'. Experts in Russia are analyzing the document. MOD will soon publish the result of analysis."
Screenshot of the news in Russian by Sputnik:
One of the alleged Ukrainian document disclosed by Russia:
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Thomas Friedman already wrong because he said countries that have McDonald's don't go to war with one another...
too late, the terms get worse and worse as time goes on because they have less and less leverage. if they only agreed on day 0 or day 1 none of this would have happened.
In the initial pushes towards Kiev and Chernihiv, Russia suffered heavy casualties. The offensive during the first few days, especially in the North was undertaken with kid gloves, and the Russians got licked there. But since Wednesday, they have significantly upped the ante.
Many people say that Kiev is the prize, but I do not believe that is the case. Kiev an Chernihiv are decoys to divert Ukrainian resources away from the South and the East. The city that Russia aims for the most is Mariupol. It has been surrounded for days. Taking control of Mariupol will complete the connection of the land bridge along coast of the Sea of Azov from Crimea to Mariupol.
In as much as the Russians have suffered high casualties - somewhere between what they have admitted and what Ukrainians claim - the Ukrainians are reeling. The Russian Aerospace Forces that were initially much more cautious about involving themselves in the conflict, have upped the ante. Russia is besieging Kharkiv and Mariupol at will...
But what does Putin truly want? Ukraine was NEVER going to just surrender. The Russians should have from the getgo assumed the worse, in that the Ukrainians we're ready to defend themselves and as capable of the Chechen Rebels were, but with even more armour and much more modern military equipment. It took several months of combat logistical operations to gradually approach into Grozny, in combination with long distance artillery and airstrikes on Grozny, build forward operating bases, and ensuring that their supply lines were secure, before launching a combined arms onslaught on the city for them to take the city, which itself took nearly a month and a half of brutal street fighting to do so. This is in 1999/2000.
Kiev is much larger than Grozny. Russia will need to commit many times the resources to its capture and assume that the Ukrainians are prepared to fight as the Chechens were. It required levelling Grozny to achieve that. Russia has demonstrated so far that it doesn't want to level Kiev or other major cities. What it can do however is surround them and prevent breakouts by defenders and relief by allies coming from elsewhere. It does not need to take the city of Kharkiv, for example.
Many people say that Kiev is the prize, but I do not believe that is the case. Kiev an Chernihiv are decoys to divert Ukrainian resources away from the South and the East. The city that Russia aims for the most is Mariupol. It has been surrounded for days. Taking control of Mariupol will complete the connection of the land bridge along coast of the Sea of Azov from Crimea to Mariupol.
In as much as the Russians have suffered high casualties - somewhere between what they have admitted and what Ukrainians claim - the Ukrainians are reeling. The Russian Aerospace Forces that were initially much more cautious about involving themselves in the conflict, have upped the ante. Russia is besieging Kharkiv and Mariupol at will...
But what does Putin truly want? Ukraine was NEVER going to just surrender. The Russians should have from the getgo assumed the worse, in that the Ukrainians we're ready to defend themselves and as capable of the Chechen Rebels were, but with even more armour and much more modern military equipment. It took several months of combat logistical operations to gradually approach into Grozny, in combination with long distance artillery and airstrikes on Grozny, build forward operating bases, and ensuring that their supply lines were secure, before launching a combined arms onslaught on the city for them to take the city, which itself took nearly a month and a half of brutal street fighting to do so. This is in 1999/2000.
Kiev is much larger than Grozny. Russia will need to commit many times the resources to its capture and assume that the Ukrainians are prepared to fight as the Chechens were. It required levelling Grozny to achieve that. Russia has demonstrated so far that it doesn't want to level Kiev or other major cities. What it can do however is surround them and prevent breakouts by defenders and relief by allies coming from elsewhere. It does not need to take the city of Kharkiv, for example.
Ukraine Is A Sacrificial Pawn On The Imperial Chessboard
By Caitlin Johnstone - 06 March 2022
The war is not going well for Kyiv, and it would be unreasonable to expect that to change. As a vastly superior military force overwhelms the US client state, reality is in the process of crashing down hard in the face of western liberals who bought into the war propaganda that the brave, sexy comedian was leading an upset victory to kick Putin's ass out of Ukraine.
Zelensky is now raging at NATO powers for refusing to intervene militarily against Russia, apparently having previously been given the impression that the US-centralized empire might risk its very existence defending its dear friends the Ukrainians from an invasion.
"Unfortunately, today there is a complete impression that it is time to give a funeral repast for something else: security guarantees and promises, determination of alliances, values that seem to be dead for someone," Zelensky said Friday.
"All the people who will die starting from this day will also die because of you," Ukraine's president added. "Because of your weakness, because of your disunity."
It must be hard, the process of learning that you were never actually a valued partner in western civilization's fight for freedom and democracy. That you were always just one more sacrificial pawn on the imperial chessboard.
In a new article titled "U.S. and allies quietly prepare for a Ukrainian government-in-exile and a long insurgency", The Washington Post reports that US officials anticipate Russia will reverse its early losses and successfully drive the Zelensky regime out of the country, after which "a long, bloody insurgency" is planned against the invaders backed by billions of dollars in US funding.
The US has a history of working to draw Moscow into gruelling, costly military quagmires which monopolize its military firepower while leaching it of blood and treasure. Jimmy Carter's National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, author of US hegemonic manifesto The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives, openly bragged about having lured Russia into its own Vietnam fighting the US-backed Mujahideen in Afghanistan for a decade.
Just two years ago then-US Special Representative for Syria engagement said during a video event hosted by the Hudson Institute that his job was to make Syria "a quagmire for the Russians".
So this isn't something new or out of the blue, and what it means is that all the self-righteous posturing by the western political/media class about the need to pour weapons into Ukraine is not really about saving Ukrainian lives (only negotiating a ceasefire can do that), but about seizing this golden opportunity to hurt Russia's geostrategic interests as much as possible. Ukraine on its own is powerless to stop Russia from taking Kyiv no matter how many weapons are sent, but those weapons can be used to fight a "long, bloody insurgency" after that happens which costs many more lives, keeps Moscow militarily preoccupied and hemorrhaging money, and ultimately hurts Putin's popularity at home.
This by itself would do a great deal to advance US interests, but on top of that you've got the even greater benefit of manufacturing international consent for unprecedented acts of economic warfare against the entire nation of Russia, as well as killing Nord Stream 2 and rallying immense support for NATO and the imperial military/intelligence machine. The western world is now a united front against the Sauron-like menace of Vladimir Putin in much the same way it united against the threat of global terrorism after 9/11, and we're probably only seeing the beginnings of the agendas this will be used to roll out.
We can expect these agendas to be used in an attempt to impoverish, undermine, agitate, and ultimately collapse and balkanize Russia, as the CIA and Washington swamp monsters have wanted to do since the fall of the Soviet Union. This would leave China standing alone without its nuclear superpower guard bear and much more vulnerable to imperial operations geared toward thwarting the emergence of a true multipolar world, a goal US imperialists have had in writing for three decades.
That's a whole lot of potential benefit to the US empire just for losing Ukraine. Kind of like sacrificing a pawn to get the queen in chess.
I think a big part of why I and others wrongly underestimated the likelihood of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine was that the cost-to-benefit math never made sense; on paper Moscow stands so much more to lose by this action in the long term than it stood to gain. There was also a bit of an assumption that the empire would rather Russia not take Ukraine, preferring to gradually encroach with NATO salami slicing tactics than give up a useful client state on Russia's border, and would adjust its actions accordingly.
But chess is all about out-maneuvering your opponent to leave them nothing but bad options to choose from, and in the end leaving the king with no safe moves. The drivers of empire would have known that, as the late Justin Raimondo explained all the way back in 2014 for Antiwar, Putin could not afford to lose Ukraine to the west without losing crucial support in Russia. Combine that with increased attacks on Donbas separatists and the west's adamant refusal to make even the most meaningless concessions like guaranteeing they wouldn't add a nation to NATO who they had no intention of adding anyway, and you can understand if not support Putin's drastic course of action.
No meaningful diplomatic effort is being made by Washington to end the violence. Ukrainian lives are being spent like pennies to facilitate the agenda of US planetary domination by whipping up international support for the strangulation of Russia while pouring vast fortunes into the military-industrial complex rather than taking even the tiniest step toward de-escalation, diplomacy and detente.
And it's entirely possible that this was all planned years in advance.
. . .
MICHAEL PARENTI saw this all coming long ago:
The Project for a New American Century (PNAC) plan envisions a strategic confrontation with China, and a still greater permanent military presence in every corner of the world. The objective is not just power for its own sake but power to control the world's natural resources and markets, power to privatize and deregulate the economies of every nation in the world, and power to hoist upon the backs of peoples everywhere — including North America — the blessings of an untrammeled global "free market." The end goal is to ensure not merely the supremacy of global capitalism as such, but the supremacy of American global capitalism by preventing the emergence of any other potentially competing superpower.
( . . . )
By Caitlin Johnstone - 06 March 2022
The war is not going well for Kyiv, and it would be unreasonable to expect that to change. As a vastly superior military force overwhelms the US client state, reality is in the process of crashing down hard in the face of western liberals who bought into the war propaganda that the brave, sexy comedian was leading an upset victory to kick Putin's ass out of Ukraine.
Zelensky is now raging at NATO powers for refusing to intervene militarily against Russia, apparently having previously been given the impression that the US-centralized empire might risk its very existence defending its dear friends the Ukrainians from an invasion.
"Unfortunately, today there is a complete impression that it is time to give a funeral repast for something else: security guarantees and promises, determination of alliances, values that seem to be dead for someone," Zelensky said Friday.
"All the people who will die starting from this day will also die because of you," Ukraine's president added. "Because of your weakness, because of your disunity."
It must be hard, the process of learning that you were never actually a valued partner in western civilization's fight for freedom and democracy. That you were always just one more sacrificial pawn on the imperial chessboard.
In a new article titled "U.S. and allies quietly prepare for a Ukrainian government-in-exile and a long insurgency", The Washington Post reports that US officials anticipate Russia will reverse its early losses and successfully drive the Zelensky regime out of the country, after which "a long, bloody insurgency" is planned against the invaders backed by billions of dollars in US funding.
The US has a history of working to draw Moscow into gruelling, costly military quagmires which monopolize its military firepower while leaching it of blood and treasure. Jimmy Carter's National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, author of US hegemonic manifesto The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives, openly bragged about having lured Russia into its own Vietnam fighting the US-backed Mujahideen in Afghanistan for a decade.
Just two years ago then-US Special Representative for Syria engagement said during a video event hosted by the Hudson Institute that his job was to make Syria "a quagmire for the Russians".
So this isn't something new or out of the blue, and what it means is that all the self-righteous posturing by the western political/media class about the need to pour weapons into Ukraine is not really about saving Ukrainian lives (only negotiating a ceasefire can do that), but about seizing this golden opportunity to hurt Russia's geostrategic interests as much as possible. Ukraine on its own is powerless to stop Russia from taking Kyiv no matter how many weapons are sent, but those weapons can be used to fight a "long, bloody insurgency" after that happens which costs many more lives, keeps Moscow militarily preoccupied and hemorrhaging money, and ultimately hurts Putin's popularity at home.
This by itself would do a great deal to advance US interests, but on top of that you've got the even greater benefit of manufacturing international consent for unprecedented acts of economic warfare against the entire nation of Russia, as well as killing Nord Stream 2 and rallying immense support for NATO and the imperial military/intelligence machine. The western world is now a united front against the Sauron-like menace of Vladimir Putin in much the same way it united against the threat of global terrorism after 9/11, and we're probably only seeing the beginnings of the agendas this will be used to roll out.
We can expect these agendas to be used in an attempt to impoverish, undermine, agitate, and ultimately collapse and balkanize Russia, as the CIA and Washington swamp monsters have wanted to do since the fall of the Soviet Union. This would leave China standing alone without its nuclear superpower guard bear and much more vulnerable to imperial operations geared toward thwarting the emergence of a true multipolar world, a goal US imperialists have had in writing for three decades.
That's a whole lot of potential benefit to the US empire just for losing Ukraine. Kind of like sacrificing a pawn to get the queen in chess.
I think a big part of why I and others wrongly underestimated the likelihood of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine was that the cost-to-benefit math never made sense; on paper Moscow stands so much more to lose by this action in the long term than it stood to gain. There was also a bit of an assumption that the empire would rather Russia not take Ukraine, preferring to gradually encroach with NATO salami slicing tactics than give up a useful client state on Russia's border, and would adjust its actions accordingly.
But chess is all about out-maneuvering your opponent to leave them nothing but bad options to choose from, and in the end leaving the king with no safe moves. The drivers of empire would have known that, as the late Justin Raimondo explained all the way back in 2014 for Antiwar, Putin could not afford to lose Ukraine to the west without losing crucial support in Russia. Combine that with increased attacks on Donbas separatists and the west's adamant refusal to make even the most meaningless concessions like guaranteeing they wouldn't add a nation to NATO who they had no intention of adding anyway, and you can understand if not support Putin's drastic course of action.
No meaningful diplomatic effort is being made by Washington to end the violence. Ukrainian lives are being spent like pennies to facilitate the agenda of US planetary domination by whipping up international support for the strangulation of Russia while pouring vast fortunes into the military-industrial complex rather than taking even the tiniest step toward de-escalation, diplomacy and detente.
And it's entirely possible that this was all planned years in advance.
. . .
MICHAEL PARENTI saw this all coming long ago:
The Project for a New American Century (PNAC) plan envisions a strategic confrontation with China, and a still greater permanent military presence in every corner of the world. The objective is not just power for its own sake but power to control the world's natural resources and markets, power to privatize and deregulate the economies of every nation in the world, and power to hoist upon the backs of peoples everywhere — including North America — the blessings of an untrammeled global "free market." The end goal is to ensure not merely the supremacy of global capitalism as such, but the supremacy of American global capitalism by preventing the emergence of any other potentially competing superpower.
( . . . )
Russia might be able to topple the government - with great effort - but it cannot control Ukraine. There will be an insurgency that will be indefinite. Realistically speaking, Russia can offer the status quo ante bellum in exchange for neutrality. There are NATO countries that will NEVER agree to Ukraine joining NATO again after this.
That aside, taking Mariupol will be a huge strategic and symbolic victory for Russia. Kiev is in predominantly Ukrainian speaking Ukraine, and aside from that is a big city. It will too much cost of resources to take it...
Wow. I'm back. I've gotten caught up with the thread. There are some interesting bits here. However, I have to say there is an awful lot of people getting off topic. Calling out war crimes by ANYONE is good! I totally applaud it. However, it does not belong in this thread unless those war crimes are part of the Russo-Ukrainian War! Some people are having a hard time reading what the mods have said. Let me reiterate that we need to stay on topic or the mods will close the thread again. For the love of all that is good and light, can people remember that, please?
ahem. Let me state this is purely my opinion. It is only worth as much as you paid for it and if you paid anything at all, even one kopeck even at today's exchange rates, you've paid too much.
Here we are, at the end of day 11, nearly the dawn of day 12. 11 days and the Russians have not taken down the Ukrainians. 11 days is far, far more than the original bragged about 72 hours, but less than the 15 days the leaked documents claimed was the real plan. However, it is getting closer and closer to the 15 days. I wonder if this time next week we will still be talking about how Mariupol, Kharkov and Kiev have not fallen though.
That said...
1. The Russians are still winning. The Ukrainians are unlikely to come out of this with a victory. Please, let's not get too excited or confused about the status on the ground. Whatever punishment the Russians are receiving on the ground, they have significantly more forces than the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians do not have great supply lines and may never. There are some interesting gotchas and things that make you go hmmm.
2. The Russians have committed at least 95% of their 130k to 160k ground force at this point. The original forces deployed along Ukraine's borders had something on the order of 130+ BTG. That number will be brought up later.
3. The Russians are still fighting damned hard for Mariupol and Kharkov. The constriction is getting tighter and tighter for Mariupol. The seesaw for Kharkov continues. However, it appears to be more of a grind now rather than the yolo tactics of before.
4. The RuAF/VKS...remains rather underwhelming. I'm sorry, guys. At least 9, if not 11+, aircraft have been lost recently, the fixed wing assets were all flying low and the helicopters, well... The weapons being dropped appear to be dumb bombs and there are a high number of duds. The propaganda vid by the RuMoD even shows a Su-34 with...dumb bombs.
5. The Ukrainians stated the Russians are expected to launch their major assault on Kiev shortly. This is not the armored thrusts into Bucha etc we have seen so far, but a multi directional assault. Will this come or is this propaganda? After all, I keep hearing the massive column is still not made it through to just north of Kiev. If that snake hasn't made it through the burrow, how can there be enough troops just yet? Or will the Russians Leroy Jenkins? Again.
6. That column is supposed to be suffering from ambushes, broken down equipment, the mud, etc. Or has it finally made its way forward? I can't help but feel someone used google maps for the route. oy. Note: dear snake, either pick a better route or swallow a smaller pig. Or don't use google maps. Your pick.
7. Losses. The Russians are taking a punishing. There is the work being done by Oryx. As of this writing, Oryx reports 130 Russian tanks lost, 122 infantry fighting vehicles and 52 APC have been lost. A Russian company is ten vehicles and a BTG has 4 companies; 3 of APCS or IFVs and 1 tank. A Russian tank battalion is 31 tanks. With that in mind, the Russians have lost 5 BTGs and over two additional tank battalions...with a bunch left over, almost enough to make an ersatz battalion. 7 or 8 "BTG" is only 5% of the total deployed 130 BTG. This is with photographic evidence. The total losses are likely to be much higher.
8. Losses again. Then there is the interesting testimony of Lyudmila Narasova back in Russia. See link below. Of a company of 100 conscripts sent into Ukraine 3 came back alive. I have a few doubts about the video. Source is Ukrainian. However, the video does seem to be legit. And, yet, could this have been edited? Or maybe there is just a lot, a lot of cannon fodder? Source makes this sus. Words add legitimacy.
9. The Ukrainians claimed a great deal of Russian dead. With the above, it makes it semi possible. However, the American DOD puts the Russian losses at around 2k men. the Russians will place it much, much lower. sto pravda?
10. The artillery barrages still seem underwhelming to me by the Russians. In 2014, in the lead up to the battle of Debaltseve, the Russians obliterated a Ukrainian motorized rifle brigade in a single strike. We've seen nothing on that scale so far. This hints to me to logistics again.
11. Speaking of missing and underwhelming parts of the Russian army, where's the electronic warfare? In 2014, it was good enough to muck with the the counter battery radars, the use of commercial drones, even the raven drones the US gave to the Ukrainians. In 2022? The Ukrainians are running around with DJI drones and directing artillery fire. Commercial grade DJI drones. DJI makes a great drone, but...
12. Then there is the huge amount of unencrypted radio traffic. Maybe that's why there's no EW? They didn't have enough modern radios? Or...? This counts as a WTFism in my book.
13. I have to say I am concerned about the Russian stance on the Ukrainian Foreign Legion (or whatever they want to call themselves). The Russians have stated they would try any captured UFL members and UFL are not considered proper enemy combatants. That's a concerning POV. Not because of the treatment of the UFL - but there is that, too - but rather it then puts their own mercs in some mildly awkward positions with the Russian stance: the so-called Wagner Group, first and foremost, can be treated as criminals rather than lawful combatants. Well, if Wagnerians survive their encounters with nation-state forces, that is. Snark aside, the stance the Russians have taken is a very double edged sword from the legalistic POV.
14. Volnovakha seems to keep being taken by the DNR/DPR. There's a new bit on social media about it being taken every day or so. Wasn't that settled like...a week ago at this point? Maybe not quite that long ago, but, well...
15. The creation of the supposed eastern kessel to surround the eastern Ukrainian forces seems to be propaganda. We are at day 11 and the Russians have not done so. The 500 km - 250 from each border - should have been traversed by now if this was really happening. It has not. Therefore, until I see the photographic proof of the handshakes of the two armies with vehicles with the different insignia, I'm going to start calling this wishful thinking. When/if it happens, I'll cheerfully call myself wrong then.
16. Breaking, the Russian military has announced there will be ceasefires in Kiev, Mariupol, Kharkov and Sumy at 10 am Moscow time to allow the evacuation of civilians.
17. WTF are the Belarusians? They moved a lot of troops and then...crickets? I mean... are they staffed by the VKS or something?
18. Over to the Ukrainians. They are still fighting. They are still doing ambushes, seemingly over ten per day, on supply convoys. That's probably the best strategy for them, tbh. If they can kill the supply lines, the tanks won't run and with the veritable sea of ATGMs that have shown up, the tanks will be easy meat. Or tractor food.
19. Kiev still stands. Mariupol still stands. Kharkov still stands. Sumy still stands. Mykolaiv still stands. The eastern Ukrainian forces are still in place by and large. The UAF is still flying. The Ukrainian air defenses still seem to be fighting as well as the impressive fireball a couple days ago shows.
20. I will note the number of TB2 videos seems to have dropped a lot. My suspicion is this is due to losses. OTOH, it could be the Ukrainians have decided to implement some opsec. I'd lean towards losses.
21. Supposedly, over ten thousand ATGMs have been delivered. Consider there are far, far more atgms in Ukraine now than the RUssians have tanks, APCs or IFVs in the country. That's pretty sobering, if true.
22. The Ukrainians claim to have killed more high officers, two Lt Cols over night.
23. The Ukrainians have also claimed they are doing counteroffensives. Color me rather skeptical. It is possible though. If the tanks are getting bogged down and running out of fuel, it could be possible the Ukrainians are pushing back with all the ATGMs and MANPADS in an slogging infantry fight.
24. The Ukrainians have stated a 3rd round of talks are going to be undertaken. The last two were not terribly fruitful except for SBU target practice.
To be continued in another message...I wrote one too long! lol!
ahem. Let me state this is purely my opinion. It is only worth as much as you paid for it and if you paid anything at all, even one kopeck even at today's exchange rates, you've paid too much.
Here we are, at the end of day 11, nearly the dawn of day 12. 11 days and the Russians have not taken down the Ukrainians. 11 days is far, far more than the original bragged about 72 hours, but less than the 15 days the leaked documents claimed was the real plan. However, it is getting closer and closer to the 15 days. I wonder if this time next week we will still be talking about how Mariupol, Kharkov and Kiev have not fallen though.
That said...
1. The Russians are still winning. The Ukrainians are unlikely to come out of this with a victory. Please, let's not get too excited or confused about the status on the ground. Whatever punishment the Russians are receiving on the ground, they have significantly more forces than the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians do not have great supply lines and may never. There are some interesting gotchas and things that make you go hmmm.
2. The Russians have committed at least 95% of their 130k to 160k ground force at this point. The original forces deployed along Ukraine's borders had something on the order of 130+ BTG. That number will be brought up later.
3. The Russians are still fighting damned hard for Mariupol and Kharkov. The constriction is getting tighter and tighter for Mariupol. The seesaw for Kharkov continues. However, it appears to be more of a grind now rather than the yolo tactics of before.
4. The RuAF/VKS...remains rather underwhelming. I'm sorry, guys. At least 9, if not 11+, aircraft have been lost recently, the fixed wing assets were all flying low and the helicopters, well... The weapons being dropped appear to be dumb bombs and there are a high number of duds. The propaganda vid by the RuMoD even shows a Su-34 with...dumb bombs.
5. The Ukrainians stated the Russians are expected to launch their major assault on Kiev shortly. This is not the armored thrusts into Bucha etc we have seen so far, but a multi directional assault. Will this come or is this propaganda? After all, I keep hearing the massive column is still not made it through to just north of Kiev. If that snake hasn't made it through the burrow, how can there be enough troops just yet? Or will the Russians Leroy Jenkins? Again.
6. That column is supposed to be suffering from ambushes, broken down equipment, the mud, etc. Or has it finally made its way forward? I can't help but feel someone used google maps for the route. oy. Note: dear snake, either pick a better route or swallow a smaller pig. Or don't use google maps. Your pick.
7. Losses. The Russians are taking a punishing. There is the work being done by Oryx. As of this writing, Oryx reports 130 Russian tanks lost, 122 infantry fighting vehicles and 52 APC have been lost. A Russian company is ten vehicles and a BTG has 4 companies; 3 of APCS or IFVs and 1 tank. A Russian tank battalion is 31 tanks. With that in mind, the Russians have lost 5 BTGs and over two additional tank battalions...with a bunch left over, almost enough to make an ersatz battalion. 7 or 8 "BTG" is only 5% of the total deployed 130 BTG. This is with photographic evidence. The total losses are likely to be much higher.
8. Losses again. Then there is the interesting testimony of Lyudmila Narasova back in Russia. See link below. Of a company of 100 conscripts sent into Ukraine 3 came back alive. I have a few doubts about the video. Source is Ukrainian. However, the video does seem to be legit. And, yet, could this have been edited? Or maybe there is just a lot, a lot of cannon fodder? Source makes this sus. Words add legitimacy.
9. The Ukrainians claimed a great deal of Russian dead. With the above, it makes it semi possible. However, the American DOD puts the Russian losses at around 2k men. the Russians will place it much, much lower. sto pravda?
10. The artillery barrages still seem underwhelming to me by the Russians. In 2014, in the lead up to the battle of Debaltseve, the Russians obliterated a Ukrainian motorized rifle brigade in a single strike. We've seen nothing on that scale so far. This hints to me to logistics again.
11. Speaking of missing and underwhelming parts of the Russian army, where's the electronic warfare? In 2014, it was good enough to muck with the the counter battery radars, the use of commercial drones, even the raven drones the US gave to the Ukrainians. In 2022? The Ukrainians are running around with DJI drones and directing artillery fire. Commercial grade DJI drones. DJI makes a great drone, but...
12. Then there is the huge amount of unencrypted radio traffic. Maybe that's why there's no EW? They didn't have enough modern radios? Or...? This counts as a WTFism in my book.
13. I have to say I am concerned about the Russian stance on the Ukrainian Foreign Legion (or whatever they want to call themselves). The Russians have stated they would try any captured UFL members and UFL are not considered proper enemy combatants. That's a concerning POV. Not because of the treatment of the UFL - but there is that, too - but rather it then puts their own mercs in some mildly awkward positions with the Russian stance: the so-called Wagner Group, first and foremost, can be treated as criminals rather than lawful combatants. Well, if Wagnerians survive their encounters with nation-state forces, that is. Snark aside, the stance the Russians have taken is a very double edged sword from the legalistic POV.
14. Volnovakha seems to keep being taken by the DNR/DPR. There's a new bit on social media about it being taken every day or so. Wasn't that settled like...a week ago at this point? Maybe not quite that long ago, but, well...
15. The creation of the supposed eastern kessel to surround the eastern Ukrainian forces seems to be propaganda. We are at day 11 and the Russians have not done so. The 500 km - 250 from each border - should have been traversed by now if this was really happening. It has not. Therefore, until I see the photographic proof of the handshakes of the two armies with vehicles with the different insignia, I'm going to start calling this wishful thinking. When/if it happens, I'll cheerfully call myself wrong then.
16. Breaking, the Russian military has announced there will be ceasefires in Kiev, Mariupol, Kharkov and Sumy at 10 am Moscow time to allow the evacuation of civilians.
17. WTF are the Belarusians? They moved a lot of troops and then...crickets? I mean... are they staffed by the VKS or something?
18. Over to the Ukrainians. They are still fighting. They are still doing ambushes, seemingly over ten per day, on supply convoys. That's probably the best strategy for them, tbh. If they can kill the supply lines, the tanks won't run and with the veritable sea of ATGMs that have shown up, the tanks will be easy meat. Or tractor food.
19. Kiev still stands. Mariupol still stands. Kharkov still stands. Sumy still stands. Mykolaiv still stands. The eastern Ukrainian forces are still in place by and large. The UAF is still flying. The Ukrainian air defenses still seem to be fighting as well as the impressive fireball a couple days ago shows.
20. I will note the number of TB2 videos seems to have dropped a lot. My suspicion is this is due to losses. OTOH, it could be the Ukrainians have decided to implement some opsec. I'd lean towards losses.
21. Supposedly, over ten thousand ATGMs have been delivered. Consider there are far, far more atgms in Ukraine now than the RUssians have tanks, APCs or IFVs in the country. That's pretty sobering, if true.
22. The Ukrainians claim to have killed more high officers, two Lt Cols over night.
23. The Ukrainians have also claimed they are doing counteroffensives. Color me rather skeptical. It is possible though. If the tanks are getting bogged down and running out of fuel, it could be possible the Ukrainians are pushing back with all the ATGMs and MANPADS in an slogging infantry fight.
24. The Ukrainians have stated a 3rd round of talks are going to be undertaken. The last two were not terribly fruitful except for SBU target practice.
To be continued in another message...I wrote one too long! lol!
Continued! OMG! I'm so sorry, Diarrhea of the keyboard here...
A few final thoughts.
The rage I mentioned before is only growing. The Russians have not only failed to break the morale of the Ukrainians, but have inflamed their anger to levels I've never seen before. It will take some major events to break the Ukrainians. Even if the Russians take Ukraine, I suspect this will be a massive quagmire soaking up and killing a lot of young men needed at home. Installing a puppet regime will be a failure without breaking the Ukrainians. As soon as the Russians go home, the puppet will be tossed onto the fire.
I currently give the Ukrainians a 10% chance of surviving this war and a 90% chance of Russian defeating Ukraine and its current government. However, if the offensive into Kiev fails to take the city and/or the logistics falls apart completely (see tweet pasted below Narasova's testimony link), then the Ukrainians will rapidly start increasing their changes of victory.
On the funny and weird side, beware the tractor that comes in the night and always, always take the stairs in an emergency or war.
Last thought: resist propaganda. If there's no way to prove it, at best, file it under interesting if true. Just because something is against your personal thoughts and biases, doesn't mean its wrong. Likewise, if it merely confirms what you think, still express skepticism. We have some wildly intelligent people here. Don't let confirmation bias lead you astray.
In wrap up, be safe. Be on topic. Be skeptical. Be respectful. This war has a long, long ways to go.
Narasova's testimony link:
A few final thoughts.
The rage I mentioned before is only growing. The Russians have not only failed to break the morale of the Ukrainians, but have inflamed their anger to levels I've never seen before. It will take some major events to break the Ukrainians. Even if the Russians take Ukraine, I suspect this will be a massive quagmire soaking up and killing a lot of young men needed at home. Installing a puppet regime will be a failure without breaking the Ukrainians. As soon as the Russians go home, the puppet will be tossed onto the fire.
I currently give the Ukrainians a 10% chance of surviving this war and a 90% chance of Russian defeating Ukraine and its current government. However, if the offensive into Kiev fails to take the city and/or the logistics falls apart completely (see tweet pasted below Narasova's testimony link), then the Ukrainians will rapidly start increasing their changes of victory.
On the funny and weird side, beware the tractor that comes in the night and always, always take the stairs in an emergency or war.
Last thought: resist propaganda. If there's no way to prove it, at best, file it under interesting if true. Just because something is against your personal thoughts and biases, doesn't mean its wrong. Likewise, if it merely confirms what you think, still express skepticism. We have some wildly intelligent people here. Don't let confirmation bias lead you astray.
In wrap up, be safe. Be on topic. Be skeptical. Be respectful. This war has a long, long ways to go.
Narasova's testimony link:
- Status