Ukrainian War Developments

[SanWenYu]

It seems that the China Embassy to Ukraine is about to evacuate itself now after "most" Chinese have left for China. On the Chinese social networks, the embassy is urging the very few Chinese who are still in Ukraine to leave "on their own" immediately. In the notice, the embassy said that the situation is worsening quickly and it can get a lot worse very soon.

Perhaps the embassy has got a tip on the imminent Russian assult on Kiev.

3月7日，中国驻乌克兰大使馆公众号发布通知称，目前，在乌克兰的中国同胞绝大部分已撤离。当前，乌紧张形势还在不断恶化，且有急剧升温之势，中国驻乌克兰使馆在此谨提醒尚在乌的中国同胞尽快自乌离境。

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Edit: Darn I made a mistake. The embassy's notice says "自乌离境" but somehow I misread it as "自行离境". Therefore the "on their own" part in my interpretation isn't correct and should be removed. Sorry.

 

[Lapin]

without power, there's no internet. so cutting both power and food works.

One less brutal thing Russia can do is allow a few UN observers from NATO countries but not representing NATO to monitor the civilian evacuation of Kyiv at strictly set date and time. The observers will be flying in under the UN flag and escorted by Russian forces. They will be allowed to monitor the entirety of the evacuation route starting N hours prior to the evacuation and ending N hours after. Russia will livestream every second of the UN observer presence. And then, that's their last chance to surrender.

One can access the internet (at least for some time) without being connected to an electrical power grid.
I doubt that Russia could completely cut off the reporting of terrible distress inside starving besieged Kyiv.

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

Is the Ukrainian government crazy? Or are the Russians taking inspiration from Colin Powell's tiny vial of white powder? I double checked the calendar and confirmed it's still 3 weeks til April 1.

"Russian media outlets, including TASS, InterFax and others, citing anonymous sources, report that Ukraine is trying to make plutonium based dirty bombs in a place within Chernobyl."

"The reports also claim that Ukraine started researching on nuclear weapons immediately after the country officially gave up its disposal of nuclear weapons from Soviet Union. For more than 20 years, Ukraine has been working on projects to develop its own nuclear weapons and missles (with nuclear warheads)."

"To speed up the development, Ukraine sought the required plutonium materials from abroad in the early days of the projects. Based on the information on hand, it is believed that the US has been involved and transferred the (plutonium) materials to its ally." [ Not sure if this "ally" of the US is Ukraine. -- my notes ]





A screenshot of the report (in Russian) on TASS:

View attachment 84648

Found this

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:

View attachment 84649

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That's a very serious accusation they are making. They better have a lot of evidence for that claim since a huge chunk of the international community is staring daggers at them.

"Why not cut the power and starve them out because it’s quite clear the Ukrainian cities did not stockpile food before hand."

I am not convinced that the traditional strategy of starving a besieged city into submission can succeed in the 21st century.
Particularly when that city is inhabited by white Europeans, armed with the power of images distributed to the internet.
How would Western governments and peoples respond to months of anguished pleas from starving, if not dying, Ukrainians?
Would Western governments demand that Russia at least allow a huge airlift of food and medicine to sustain everyone in Kyiv?
Would popular pressure for NATO military intervention grow irresistible?

Would Ukraine's government be willing to sacrifice Kyiv's civilian population as ruthlessly as the Soviet leadership sacrificed
besieged Leningrad's civilian population in the winter of 1941-42? Would Western powers allow millions of deaths in Kyiv?

Like what @FairAndUnbiased said, they can allow UN observers and peacekeepers that aren't from NATO nations secure evacuation routes from Kyiv during a ceasefire.

So pretty much the Ukrainian counterpart to the Chinese Communist Youth League. Repulsive.

More like the Hitler Youth. Until the Youth League members gets militarized for war, that comparison shouldn't be made.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

It seems that the China Embassy to Ukraine is about to evacuate itself now after "most" Chinese have left for China. On the Chinese social networks, the embassy is urging the very few Chinese who are still in Ukraine to leave "on their own" immediately. In the notice, the embassy said that the situation is worsening quickly and it can get a lot worse very soon.

Perhaps the embassy has got a tip on the imminent Russian assult on Kiev.

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looks like this means the hammer is about to drop. Once the Chinese embassy is gone (if it is still in Kiev) there will be only Ukrainians remaining. The next step will be for Russia to announce a humanitarian corridor and time for the evacuation, just like Grozny. The next step will be Grozny: deletion of all regions of the city that show resistance.

 

[SinoSoldier]

NATO Lenovo laptop captured in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500505238507249664

"NATO E-3A COMPONENT Geilenkirchen" in written in the sticker.

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DPR displays captured NATO supplied ATGMs.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500515997819801601

I have serious doubts about the laptop being authentic. Lenovo has long been banned for US government use or to handle classified information due to backdoor spyware.

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[FairAndUnbiased]

So pretty much the Ukrainian counterpart to the Chinese Communist Youth League. Repulsive.

CYL does not hand out guns so it is utterly incomparable. This is troll level shit.

 

[lube]

looks like this means the hammer is about to drop. Once the Chinese embassy is gone (if it is still in Kiev) there will be only Ukrainians remaining. The next step will be for Russia to announce a humanitarian corridor and time for the evacuation, just like Grozny. The next step will be Grozny: deletion of all regions of the city that show resistance.

I think repeating Grozny on Kyiv would actually bring in NATO intervention. Too many people (Blue eyed Europeans) dying.

Putin can't even start looking for a way out without some sort of 'long term' victory in Ukraine. He has no off-ramp, and most of the damaging costs have already been incurred.

Which means taking the rubble that will be Kyiv and crippling Ukraine is acceptable in Putin's mind, since Ukrainians will hate Russia for generations now anyway.

 

[Lapin]

Outer Manchuria was some no man's land that had almost no Chinese residents and the emperor didn't care about, which is why

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. That treaty, btw,

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so what's fair is fair otherwise Russia can be the one to claim China stole their land and then Mongolia has claims on both. Russia didn't conquer the land, Qing gave it up to focus on other problems, of which there were many in 1850's China. Shit happens, imperial borders change, not always due to violence.

In contrast, see how Qing defended Guangzhou and only gave up Hong Kong at all (a useless fishing village) due to extreme coercion and complete defeat. Seems like Qing emperor cared far more about a tiny fishing village than about the entirety of Outer Manchuria. Nobody believes that you or the other people who are "Outer Manchuria, Outer Manchuria" all day are truly passionate about Outer Manchuria otherwise they'd know that simple fact that Qing gave it up with barely a fight while they would rather die than give up a single speck of Guangdong. Nobody is stupid, we can see what is fake outrage and what is real outrage.

On the actual topic, the historical proof shows that Russia and China were able to coexist for 400+ years with only minor border changes and low levels of violence, even when both were imperialist powers. Now that neither are imperial powers, the border has been settled. There's no issue with Russia today. It's over. The historical pre-1680's borders are restored.

So no, there's no issue with Russia having whatever views. Views are typically shaped by reality. They either know what's good for them or they don't. Those who don't know what's good for them go extinct.

Russians, like Chinese, are pragmatic and survival oriented. They don't get high on copium. Those who are more... 'idealistic'... tend to go for the copium. Remember it wasn't a Russian that said "we create our own reality" nor was it a Russian that said "facts don't matter".

Let's not overidealize the history of Sino-Russian or Sino-Soviet relations.

When the USSR liberated Manchuria from Japanese occupation in 1945, the Soviets tended to treat the Chinese,
their nominal allies, almost like a conquered people. The Soviets looted practically all the industrial infrastructure
left behind by the Japanese and shipped it back to the USSR. On a grim personal level, Soviet soldiers often
celebrated--as they already had done in Europe--by raping conquered women, Chinese women in this case.

Someone in my family told me that he had been very sympathetic toward the USSR, but, after learning of this
kind of Soviet misbehavior, he became much more critical.

 

[Lapin]

That's a very serious accusation they are making. They better have a lot of evidence for that claim since a huge chunk of the international community is staring daggers at them.

Like what @FairAndUnbiased said, they can allow UN observers and peacekeepers that aren't from NATO nations secure evacuation routes from Kyiv during a ceasefire.

More like the Hitler Youth. Until the Youth League members gets militarized for war, that comparison shouldn't be made.

Why bring up the Hitlerjugend when the USSR had major paramilitary organizations?

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"Добровольное Общество Содействия Армии, Авиации и Флоту was a

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in the

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,
concerned mainly with weapons,

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and

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. The society was established in 1927 as OSOAVIAKhIM and from
1951 to 1991 carried the name of DOSAAF.

The society was preserved in some post-Soviet Republics, e.g.

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and

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, although these may use a different name.
In

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, for example, the counterpart is "Society of Assistance to Defense of Ukraine""

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I think repeating Grozny on Kyiv would actually bring in NATO intervention. Too many people (Blue eyed Europeans) dying.

Putin can't even start looking for a way out without some sort of 'long term' victory in Ukraine. He has no off-ramp, and most of the damaging costs have already been incurred.

Which means taking the rubble that will be Kyiv and crippling Ukraine is acceptable in Putin's mind, since Ukrainians will hate Russia for generations now anyway.

At this point it's Russia or Ukraine. Russia doesn't have a choice. Allowing Ukraine to be anything more than a rump state is not acceptable because they have too much accumulated tech, too much accumulated hate, not enough money, and thus are able to pose a serious and motivated threat to Russia once part of NATO if they're not permanently crippled.

Let's not overidealize the history of Sino-Russian or Sino-Soviet relations.

When the USSR liberated Manchuria from Japanese occupation in 1945, the Soviets tended to treat the Chinese,
their nominal allies, almost like a conquered people. The Soviets looted practically all the industrial infrastructure
left behind by the Japanese and shipped it back to the USSR. On a grim personal level, Soviet soldiers often
celebrated--as they already had done in Europe--by raping conquered women, Chinese women in this case.

Someone in my family told me that he had been very sympathetic toward the USSR, but, after learning of this
kind of Soviet misbehavior, he became much more critical.

Manchuria was Manchukuo at the time. It was Japanese territory, not Chinese. How were they to know who is a Japanese colonial collaborator or not? Yes, soldiers should be more disciplined, and that is a war crime. But it is nothing on the level of even American behavior in China. And they did replace the equipment looted by Japan in the 1950's with aid.

That is the unfortunate truth of what happens when your country is weak. Solution is to be strong.

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so you tell me what that means?