Ukrainian War Developments

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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
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Bigboii said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499907828600885248
Eventhough I don't particularly like Russia
But this was the definition based
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The worst thing you can do is to give people a false hope, this conflict shouldn't had happen in the first place if everyone was grounded in reality, NATO, the US and Europe knew that they couldn't defend Ukraine in case of an Russian invasion and still pushed this people to be confrontational with Russia with the hope that one day they will be in the EU and NATO. When in reality the best was a neutral state with good trade relationships with the Russian sphere, Europe and even China. Now their best hope is to reach an agreement so the Russians don't split their country. Putin maybe a bad actor here but the West are cleaning their hand like Pontius Pilatus.
 
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lapain

New Member
Registered Member
tokenanalyst said:
The worst thing you can do is to give people a false hope, this conflict shouldn't had happen in the first place if everyone was grounded in reality, NATO, the US and Europe knew that they couldn't defend Ukraine in case of an Russian invasion and still pushed this people to be confrontational with Russia with the hope that one day they will be in the EU and NATO. When in reality the best was a neutral state with good trade relationships with the Russian sphere, Europe and even China. Now their best hope is to reach an agreement so the Russians don't split their country. Putin maybe a bad actor here but the West are cleaning their hand like Pontius Pilatus.
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Zelensky today :

1646458722140.png
 
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Lapin

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Is Putin really another Hitler? A Jewish teacher would have disagreed.

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"Vladimir Putin's apartment in Tel Aviv
Russian president Vladimir Putin bought an apartment for his beloved teacher Mina Yuditskia Berliner,
who taught Putin in high school in St. Petersburg."

"In a building on Pinsker Street is a one-and-a-half-room apartment that Russian president Vladimir Putin
bought for his beloved teacher, who immigrated to Israel in the 1970s.

"Russian president
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bought an apartment for his beloved teacher here in the building," the head
of the housing committee of the Pinsker 17 residential building in Tel Aviv confirmed Monday morning."

"Before one of Putin's visits to Israel in 2005, Berliner went to the
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embassy and asked to send a message to the
Russian president. She was even invited to an event held in Putin's presence, who immediately recognized his beloved teacher.
Later, a Russian diplomat came to Berliner's apartment and informed her that President Putin had decided to buy her a
one-and-a-half-room apartment on Pinsker Street.

"When I received the apartment, I cried. Putin is a very grateful and decent person," Berliner said in an interview with
Yedioth Ahronoth in 2014. Putin also sent Berliner a watch with a gift that read "From the President," and an autobiography
signed by him. Berliner died in December 2017, aged 96."

To be fair, Hitler was comparatively merciful toward a few Jews who had personally treated him kindly or well.
 
daifo

daifo

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getready

Senior Member
taxiya said:
Possible chain of payment from my understanding.

First off, SWIFT is a transaction messaging system, not a trade system. It sends a message (like an email) from one account to another. The sending account will deduce amount X, and receiving account increase by X. What the receiver does to the sender next is another story, can be done in other forms and through another channel, not necessarily via SWIFT. CIPS can be that alternative, or physical gold.

SWIFT has not cut some Russian banks off because EU want to buy Russian oil. These Russian banks receive EURO through SWIFT. They can transfer the oil EURO to a Chinese bank connected to SWIFT. The same Chinese bank in term can transfer equivalent amount of RMB to the Russian banks via CIPS according to the exchange rate of Rubel and RMB. Russia can use RMB to buy whatever she want from China or any country that accept RMB via CIPS.

The same thing can be done using the Russian SPFS system as well.

Russia can trade with any country who has access to both SWIFT and CIPS/SPFS.

It is troublesome at the beginning, but once banks have opened their accounts in CIPS or SPFS, everything will be back to normal, as easy as using SWIFT, in terms of doing financial transactions.

Cutting off SWIFT is just a short term annoyance. The long term effect is that both dollar and Euro will loose big chunks of their portions as world reserve currencies. The only beneficiary is RMB.

The real action to hurt Russia is to block Russian exports and imports physical goods. But that is suicidal for the Europeans.
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Thanks, I was in beginning led to believe that Swift ban will be the killer blow but seem like swift ban will be annoying and will create more inconvenience but not necessarily impossible to work around.

I was watching this video earlier and it stated that the banning of Russian central bank is worse. Too bad it didn't go into much details but it does give a pretty good basic coverage of the Russian sanctions and effects worldwide right now that isn't biased to western side.

 
Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
tokenanalyst said:
The worst thing you can do is to give people a false hope, this conflict shouldn't had happen in the first place if everyone was grounded in reality, NATO, the US and Europe knew that they couldn't defend Ukraine in case of an Russian invasion and still pushed this people to be confrontational with Russia with the hope that one day they will be in the EU and NATO. When in reality the best was a neutral state with good trade relationships with the Russian sphere, Europe and even China. Now their best hope is to reach an agreement so the Russians don't split their country. Putin maybe a bad actor here but the West are cleaning their hand like Pontius Pilatus.
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Exactly sane people with a bit brain should know Here is what Kissinger has to say about this whole fiasco. Another this western politician completely ignorant when it come to history Ukraine like Taiwan can never be just another foreign country is part of identity what it mean to be Russian or Chinese I can understand that.

The West must understand that, to Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign country. Russian history began in what was called Kievan-Rus. The Russian religion spread from there. Ukraine has been part of Russia for centuries, and their histories were intertwined before then. Some of the most important battles for Russian freedom, starting with the Battle of Poltava in 1709, were fought on Ukrainian soil. The Black Sea Fleet – Russia’s means of projecting power in the Mediterranean – is based by long-term lease in Sevastopol, in Crimea. Even such famed dissidents as Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn and Joseph Brodsky insisted that Ukraine was an integral part of Russian history and, indeed, of Russia.

The European Union must recognize that its bureaucratic dilatoriness and subordination of the strategic element to domestic politics in negotiating Ukraine’s relationship to Europe contributed to turning a negotiation into a crisis. Foreign policy is the art of establishing priorities.

The Ukrainians are the decisive element. They live in a country with a complex history and a polyglot composition. The Western part was incorporated into the Soviet Union in 1939, when Stalin and Hitler divided up the spoils. Crimea, 60 per cent of whose population is Russian, became part of Ukraine only in 1954 , when Nikita Khrushchev, a Ukrainian by birth, awarded it as part of the 300th-year celebration of a Russian agreement with the Cossacks. The West is largely Catholic; the East largely Russian Orthodox. The West speaks Ukrainian; the East speaks mostly Russian. Any attempt by one wing of Ukraine to dominate the other – as has been the pattern – would lead eventually to civil war or breakup. To treat Ukraine as part of an East-West confrontation would scuttle for decades any prospect to bring Russia and the West – especially Russia and Europe – into a cooperative international system.

Ukraine has been independent for only 23 years; it had previously been under some kind of foreign rule since the 14th century. Not surprisingly, its leaders have not learned the art of compromise, even less of historical perspective. The politics of post-independence Ukraine clearly demonstrates that the root of the problem lies in efforts by Ukrainian politicians to impose their will on recalcitrant parts of the country, first by one faction, then by the other. That is the essence of the conflict between Viktor Yanukovych and his principal political rival, Yulia Tymoshenko. They represent the two wings of Ukraine and have not been willing to share power. A wise U.S. policy toward Ukraine would seek a way for the two parts of the country to cooperate with each other. We should seek reconciliation, not the domination of a faction.

Russia and the West, and least of all the various factions in Ukraine, have not acted on this principle. Each has made the situation worse. Russia would not be able to impose a military solution without isolating itself at a time when many of its borders are already precarious. For the West, the demonization of Vladimir Putin is not a policy; it is an alibi for the absence of one.

Putin should come to realize that, whatever his grievances, a policy of military impositions would produce another Cold War. For its part, the United States needs to avoid treating Russia as an aberrant to be patiently taught rules of conduct established by Washington. Putin is a serious strategist – on the premises of Russian history. Understanding U.S. values and psychology are not his strong suits. Nor has understanding Russian history and psychology been a strong point of U.S. policymakers.
Leaders of all sides should return to examining outcomes, not compete in posturing. Here is my notion of an outcome compatible with the values and security interests of all sides:
 
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