PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[weig2000]

If Taiwan declared indelendence tomorrow and PRC didn't do anything how would life of average citizen is Beijing change?

The prices of pork and cabbages would largely remain the same, I'm pretty sure. Subway will still run on time. If that's what you ask.

Other than, everything would be different. It's called national sovereignty and national dignity. If this is very difficult to understand, here is an analogy that might be helpful: if the European and American think "freedom, democracy and human right" are so damn important that it's worth dying for, then Taiwan for Chinese is at least million times more important than those values for European or Americans.

I hope this explanation goes a tiny step to help you understand how important Taiwan is for the Chinese.

 

[Overbom]

If Taiwan declared indelendence tomorrow and PRC didn't do anything how would life of average citizen is Beijing change?

I don't understand your question

Taiwan is a part of China. Whoever tries to change this will have to face the PLA in the front lines. Simple as that.

People have dignity and red lines on how they interact with each other. The moment someone tries to touch these red lines then they should be prepared to face a violent response.

Make no mistake, as Americans would go to war if China tries to make (for example) Texas independent, in a similar fashion, China will go to war if they try to make Taiwan independent

 

[ecaedus]

It seems this is an life and death question so if that happened i'd expect drastic changes in life of average Chinese, no?

Their pride will be hurt the most, since they've been taught that if tw declares independence, war is certain. Now if the PLA doesn't make a move to respond, i would assume most chinese will feel humiliated and defeated. that's pretty much the only drastic change they'll feel, it's not like they have a say in which direction the country goes anyways, the average citizen has no control over the army or its intentions, they can voice their dissent on weibo but that's pretty much it.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Their pride will be hurt the most, since they've been taught that if tw declares independence, war is certain. Now if the PLA doesn't make a move to respond, i would assume most chinese will feel humiliated and defeated. that's pretty much the only drastic change they'll feel, it's not like they have a say in which direction the country goes anyways, the average citizen has no control over the army or its intentions, they can voice their dissent on weibo but that's pretty much it.

What would a US citizen do if US troops were arrested (like by Iran) and taken prisoner? Americans have been taught that all they need to say is "I am a US citizen" if they're arrested and if not released the Marines will kick in the door, shoot the baddies and whisk them away on a waiting chopper.

Does the average American get to command the US military to take revenge against Iran?

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Their pride will be hurt the most, since they've been taught that if tw declares independence, war is certain. Now if the PLA doesn't make a move to respond, i would assume most chinese will feel humiliated and defeated. that's pretty much the only drastic change they'll feel, it's not like they have a say in which direction the country goes anyways, the average citizen has no control over the army or its intentions, they can voice their dissent on weibo but that's pretty much it.

@Broccoli

It's very much unrealistic to expect nothing to be announced or said by the CPC (ultimately the decision for war and the likes is done by the party).

Lets say Taiwan declared independence today, I have no doubts that the party would just directly announce they would liberate Taiwan militarily unless they retreat that declaration (they have the ability to do it today, but losses would be greater than if it happened a few years down the line).

Tbh I could even just see them not invading any time soon, but just directly say they will invade X year (say ~2025) and that peaceful reunification can still occur before that date/year.

 

[9dashline]

Their pride will be hurt the most, since they've been taught that if tw declares independence, war is certain. Now if the PLA doesn't make a move to respond, i would assume most chinese will feel humiliated and defeated. that's pretty much the only drastic change they'll feel, it's not like they have a say in which direction the country goes anyways, the average citizen has no control over the army or its intentions, they can voice their dissent on weibo but that's pretty much it.

Their pride will be hurt the most, since Americans have been indoctrinated from birth that they are the exceptional shinning beacon on the hill and that rules don't apply to them because their God wills it... so war is certain. How dare China reunify with its own province when the US had already declared it a protectorate? Now if the US military doesn't make a move to respond, this will embolden the Chinese to take Japan and Korea next, and soon before you know it the US will be kicked out of East Asia. This cannot stand, this must not be allowed to stand. The American nonnegotiable way of life is at stake, the entire fate of the free world would be jeopardized if China is allowed to end its civil war and take back Taiwan...

As for the small portion of the American people who don't agree with the warmongering of its government and who don't believe seeing American cities get glassed is worth the game of chicken with China over Taiwan, it's not like they have a say in which direction the country goes anyways, the average citizen has no control over the army or its intentions, they can voice their dissent on twitter and facebook (or not) but that's pretty much it.

 

[ecaedus]

What would a US citizen do if US troops were arrested (like by Iran) and taken prisoner? Americans have been taught that all they need to say is "I am a US citizen" if they're arrested and if not released the Marines will kick in the door, shoot the baddies and whisk them away on a waiting chopper.

Does the average American get to command the US military to take revenge against Iran?

it's pretty disingenuous to compare a non-response towards tw independence vs an incident involving a handful of soldiers...they are two things of vastly different pretense and implications.

also keep in mind most americans are favoring towards a more direct approach when the time comes

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Their pride will be hurt the most, since Americans have been indoctrinated from birth that they are the exceptional shinning beacon on the hill and that rules don't apply to them because their God wills it... so war is certain. How dare China reunify with its own province when the US had already declared it a protectorate? Now if the US military doesn't make a move to respond, this will embolden the Chinese to take Japan and Korea next, and soon before you know it the US will be kicked out of East Asia. This cannot stand, this must not be allowed to stand. The American nonnegotiable way of life is at stake, the entire fate of the free world would be jeopardized if China is allowed to end its civil war and take back Taiwan...

As for the small portion of the American people who don't agree with the warmongering of its government and who don't believe seeing America cities get glassed is worth the game of chicken with China over Taiwan, it's not like they have a say in which direction the country goes anyways, the average citizen has no control over the army or its intentions, they can voice their dissent on twitter and facebook (or not) but that's pretty much it.

Eh I don't see Korea or Japan being taking by China.

Truthfully I would not be surprised if the became part of China in say, sometimes in the next century (2100s), but that would also not be through force.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

also keep in mind most americans are favoring towards a more direct approach when the time comes

I really quite doubt that, although the media is warmongering and basically trying to drum up support of such a war (along with getting more money for the military, or to be more precise, firms like lockhead, raytheon etc.).

 

[ecaedus]

Their pride will be hurt the most, since Americans have been indoctrinated from birth that they are the exceptional shinning beacon on the hill and that rules don't apply to them because their God wills it... so war is certain. How dare China reunify with its own province when the US had already declared it a protectorate? Now if the US military doesn't make a move to respond, this will embolden the Chinese to take Japan and Korea next, and soon before you know it the US will be kicked out of East Asia. This cannot stand, this must not be allowed to stand. The American nonnegotiable way of life is at stake, the entire fate of the free world would be jeopardized if China is allowed to end its civil war and take back Taiwan...

As for the small portion of the American people who don't agree with the warmongering of its government and who don't believe seeing American cities get glassed is worth the game of chicken with China over Taiwan, it's not like they have a say in which direction the country goes anyways, the average citizen has no control over the army or its intentions, they can voice their dissent on twitter and facebook (or not) but that's pretty much it.

no need to get hostile with me, i was just answering @Broccoli 's questions of what will happen that's all. I'm not saying CCP will or will not go to war over tw independence, only they have the answer to that.