PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[supersnoop]

I am not sure that American public can sustain such calamity . The threshold of pain is very low in CONUS. They fight on other people land but not on their own. But next war might not be so lucky. 9/11 is nothing compare to lost of 6000 seamen in sea.

I don't believe American want to die for Taiwan democracy or not

For whatever reason, this scenario is rarely mentioned. It's not even in the public's mind, so I agree it would be a massive shock. For whatever reason, most mainstream analysis seems to assume that it's going to be some Battle of Midway movie where the airplanes are flying all around and the newly minted Republic of Taiwan forces are bravely holding the island against the PLA.

The loss of such as asset could be something that galvanizes the country, and brings everyone together to defeat the enemy. This is what some of those hawks are counting on (IMO). It is not about threshold of pain or other's land, they were in Afghanistan for 20 years. The problem is that when you look at something like Pearl Harbour, or 9/11, these were attacks on American soil. The problem for the Taiwan scenario is that 2 things are usually ignored.

1. Change in the status quo precipitated by Taiwan politicians. Why die for their choices? (though I don't imagine that any Taiwan president would do so without go ahead from USA, case in point CSB and what happened to him when he wanted to launch a referendum)
2. If defense already has collapsed or basically was non-existent. Basically sending people in to die for a lost cause.

Wishful thinking posited by pseudo experts and failed military strategists in the west a.k.a. U.S..

Frankly speaking, the U.S. has never entered a war post WWII where it didn't enjoy preponderance level of military tech and power over it's adversaries. From Korea, Vietnam all the way to it's recent defeat in Afghanistan the U.S. has had the privileged of being the unquestioned superior power.

The U.S. has become so arrogant and assumes that their days in the spotlight especially in warfare will never recede, what a contemptible arrogant country.

Whether it's wishful thinking or not, that is the strategy. It might not be the most well thought out strategy, but the US also told everyone they would be welcomed into Afghanistan, they would be welcomed into Iraq, the Libyans will be happy to see Gadhafi go, etc. etc.

Going back to the OP, what constitutes "a handful"? You'd really have to talk about a few ten-thousands to be actually considered real opposition. Otherwise it is just Bay of Pigs or Tibet uprising all over again. If it is a few dozen scattered around, it would be more likely they would get ratted out if (or when) they cause any problems for "regular" people. Bay of Pigs is a perfect example actually, once Americans realized there would be no popular uprising, all their promised support evaporated like a shallow dish of water outside in the hot sun.

War is about politics. Just remove the will of the US to fight and we can capture Taiwan easily.

This may be controversial but my suggestion is to just bomb TSMC. Without it, the US has no reason to fight. The strategic calculus doesn't change whether China has Taiwan or not.
For Taiwan, without TSMC they are basically broke. Destroy it then sanction the shit out of them until submission. It's a tropical island with water insecurity. They will break.
It doesn't need to be a strike. Can be an "unfortunate industrial accident."

Do you really think it is about semiconductors? Intel has all their fabs in America, TSMC might have fractionally better technology than Intel, but it's not light years. Taiwan is all about containing China and surrounding them with Maritime enemies (Japan) or at least non-friendlies (ROK, Philippines)

 

[getready]

For whatever reason, this scenario is rarely mentioned. It's not even in the public's mind, so I agree it would be a massive shock. For whatever reason, most mainstream analysis seems to assume that it's going to be some Battle of Midway movie where the airplanes are flying all around and the newly minted Republic of Taiwan forces are bravely holding the island against the PLA.

The loss of such as asset could be something that galvanizes the country, and brings everyone together to defeat the enemy. This is what some of those hawks are counting on (IMO). It is not about threshold of pain or other's land, they were in Afghanistan for 20 years. The problem is that when you look at something like Pearl Harbour, or 9/11, these were attacks on American soil. The problem for the Taiwan scenario is that 2 things are usually ignored.

1. Change in the status quo precipitated by Taiwan politicians. Why die for their choices? (though I don't imagine that any Taiwan president would do so without go ahead from USA, case in point CSB and what happened to him when he wanted to launch a referendum)
2. If defense already has collapsed or basically was non-existent. Basically sending people in to die for a lost cause.



Whether it's wishful thinking or not, that is the strategy. It might not be the most well thought out strategy, but the US also told everyone they would be welcomed into Afghanistan, they would be welcomed into Iraq, the Libyans will be happy to see Gadhafi go, etc. etc.

Going back to the OP, what constitutes "a handful"? You'd really have to talk about a few ten-thousands to be actually considered real opposition. Otherwise it is just Bay of Pigs or Tibet uprising all over again. If it is a few dozen scattered around, it would be more likely they would get ratted out if (or when) they cause any problems for "regular" people. Bay of Pigs is a perfect example actually, once Americans realized there would be no popular uprising, all their promised support evaporated like a shallow dish of water outside in the hot sun.


Do you really think it is about semiconductors? Intel has all their fabs in America, TSMC might have fractionally better technology than Intel, but it's not light years. Taiwan is all about containing China and surrounding them with Maritime enemies (Japan) or at least non-friendlies (ROK, Philippines)

I think Taiwan is more than just containing China. US extracts a lot of benefits by playing the Taiwan card cuz everyone knows Taiwan is core interest of China. As for surrounding bases around China, DPRK is used as an excuse.

 

[visitor123]

Do you really think it is about semiconductors? Intel has all their fabs in America, TSMC might have fractionally better technology than Intel, but it's not light years. Taiwan is all about containing China and surrounding them with Maritime enemies (Japan) or at least non-friendlies (ROK, Philippines)

That is what they like to think. But do they "contain China?" What does that even mean? Surrounding China with bases for what? In peacetime, they are useless. China subs and other vessels can go wherever they want. In the event of war, all of those bases are as good as gone in the first day. Surrounding works when the surrounded cannot fight back.
You can surround a kitten to make it stay in one place. However, if you make a human ring around a tiger... well.

 

[zgx09t]

The Taiwanese military needs to maximise the probability of a US-led intervention against China. Most PLA strategists believe that the US probably will not intervene, but the truth is that nobody can be sure. Indeed, China does not discount that possibility in its preparations, and it cannot afford to. You might believe that the likelihood of a US intervention is beyond Taiwan's control, but I would disagree. The longer the fighting is dragged out for, and the greater the cost it is inflicting on the PLA, and the more time it is occupying PLA forces, the greater the likelihood that Washington believes that an intervention can succeed. This is more true if the RoC armed forces can hold a port, probably Hualien on the east coast.

If the RoC forces want to win, it will probably retreat into the mountains, and try to hold onto the east coast of the island for as long as they can. On land, it can simply try to block the narrow coastal passages leading to the eastern side. Taiwan will seek to consolidate most of its missile forces on the east side, and probably try to fly its combat aircraft there, or if that is not possible, to Japan. The mountains will act as some form of barrier against cruise missiles from the west. While the PLAN can of course sail their naval forces to the east, this will expose their warships to some extent to missile strikes.

One of the keys to quickly overrun the resistance in major population centers of western Taiwan, like Taipei basin, is to control the narrow thin slice of valley in the east starting from Yilan to Hualien to Taitung. Yilan is basically the back of neck to Taipei basin, half an hour drive through Xueshan tunnel on National highway 5, Yilan is also overlooking Japan's Yonaguni where Japanese are planning to have missiles and radar stations for Taiwan scenario. Once PLA has landed its troops en mass in Yilan and Hualien, it's game over for whatever hardcore resistance you imagine as any resistance would be pincer gripped from both sides.

 

[tch1972]

Taking peng hu as a springboard to invade Taiwan island makes no millitary sense nowadays. But capturing Penghu will demoralise the entire Taiwan and erode their morale. historically, when Penghu fell, the entire Taiwan be captured soon after

 

[Broccoli]

If Taiwan declared indelendence tomorrow and PRC didn't do anything how would life of average citizen is Beijing change?

 

[Michaelsinodef]

If Taiwan declared indelendence tomorrow and PRC didn't do anything how would life of average citizen is Beijing change?

Beijing? What?

Also why would they do absolutely nothing?

 

[Broccoli]

Beijing? What?

Also why would they do absolutely nothing?

It seems this is an life and death question so if that happened i'd expect drastic changes in life of average Chinese, no?

 

[supersnoop]

I think Taiwan is more than just containing China. US extracts a lot of benefits by playing the Taiwan card cuz everyone knows Taiwan is core interest of China. As for surrounding bases around China, DPRK is used as an excuse.

Yes of course this is true, but those are not military matters

That is what they like to think. But do they "contain China?" What does that even mean? Surrounding China with bases for what? In peacetime, they are useless. China subs and other vessels can go wherever they want. In the event of war, all of those bases are as good as gone in the first day. Surrounding works when the surrounded cannot fight back.
You can surround a kitten to make it stay in one place. However, if you make a human ring around a tiger... well.

Obviously containing a country as large as China is not really a viable long term strategy. However, this is what they are going with. American power projection requires their military presence all across the world. One of their weak spots is Central Asia, so to check on China, they require the Asian Pacific bases. The other calculation is probably that any attacks on these bases will force their allies' hands (basically a WWI scenario).

It seems this is an life and death question so if that happened i'd expect drastic changes in life of average Chinese, no?

If Taiwan reunified under 1 Country 2 Systems, would life for the average Taipei Citizen change?
When HK passed the National Security Law, did the life for the average HK citizen change?
These are dumb questions, come on now.

 

[PiSigma]

It seems this is an life and death question so if that happened i'd expect drastic changes in life of average Chinese, no?

Nothing would change for the average beijiner. Life expectancy for the average taipeier would be immediately shorter