PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency


yungho

New Member
Registered Member
And I also would ask: What do you think the American people’s response to losing a fleet carrier would be? My own estimate is it would be the greatest psychological shock we’ve had in a generation, arguably greater than 9/11.
I don't agree with this. 9/11 was a surprise to an extent. If the US carriers sinks in a war with China it would logical as that's what happens in wars. Imo if the US loses LA, China will lose Beijing, then the US will lose San Fransisco, then China would lose Shanghai, etc.. No one wins, expect Taiwan.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
I don't agree with this. 9/11 was a surprise to an extent. If the US carriers sinks in a war with China it would logical as that's what happens in wars. Imo if the US loses LA, China will lose Beijing, then the US will lose San Fransisco, then China would lose Shanghai, etc.. No one wins, expect Taiwan.
I am not sure that American public can sustain such calamity . The threshold of pain is very low in CONUS. They fight on other people land but not on their own. But next war might not be so lucky. 9/11 is nothing compare to lost of 6000 seamen in sea.

I don't believe American want to die for Taiwan democracy or not
 
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5unrise

Junior Member
Registered Member
So what would be Taiwan's strategy in the event of an attack from China? What should the RoC commander do?
 

lcloo

Senior Member
So what would be Taiwan's strategy in the event of an attack from China? What should the RoC commander do?
It could be a repeat of Hainan island battle, some stay to fight some will just run away. Those run away will be exiles like former South Vietnam regime.

Difference is during the Hainan island battle (demoralised) KMT were well equiped with navy ships and air force planes while (highly motivated) PLA were just foot soldiers. Today's scenario is PLA has advantages of technology and high morale.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Colonel
Registered Member
So what would be Taiwan's strategy in the event of an attack from China? What should the RoC commander do?
What should the commander of the Iraqi Republican Guard have done during the Gulf War?
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This puts the island
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and
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, to say nothing of
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China has dozens of capabilities that Taiwan outright doesn't have such as satellites, bombers, modern submarines, AESA equipped VLS air defense destroyers, AESA equipped AWACs, large dual engine air superiority fighters, ballistic missiles, aircraft carriers, etc.

Equipment is only one factor though. What about morale? Well, KMT has already lost multiple wars to the PLA including the massive loss of Hainan when it was already ROC vs PRC. Historically, PLA has won against KMT almost every time.
 

5unrise

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Taiwanese military needs to maximise the probability of a US-led intervention against China. Most PLA strategists believe that the US probably will not intervene, but the truth is that nobody can be sure. Indeed, China does not discount that possibility in its preparations, and it cannot afford to. You might believe that the likelihood of a US intervention is beyond Taiwan's control, but I would disagree. The longer the fighting is dragged out for, and the greater the cost it is inflicting on the PLA, and the more time it is occupying PLA forces, the greater the likelihood that Washington believes that an intervention can succeed. This is more true if the RoC armed forces can hold a port, probably Hualien on the east coast.

If the RoC forces want to win, it will probably retreat into the mountains, and try to hold onto the east coast of the island for as long as they can. On land, it can simply try to block the narrow coastal passages leading to the eastern side. Taiwan will seek to consolidate most of its missile forces on the east side, and probably try to fly its combat aircraft there, or if that is not possible, to Japan. The mountains will act as some form of barrier against cruise missiles from the west. While the PLAN can of course sail their naval forces to the east, this will expose their warships to some extent to missile strikes.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
The Taiwanese military needs to maximise the probability of a US-led intervention against China. Most PLA strategists believe that the US probably will not intervene, but the truth is that nobody can be sure. Indeed, China does not discount that possibility in its preparations, and it cannot afford to. You might believe that the likelihood of a US intervention is beyond Taiwan's control, but I would disagree. The longer the fighting is dragged out for, and the greater the cost it is inflicting on the PLA, and the more time it is occupying PLA forces, the greater the likelihood that Washington believes that an intervention can succeed. This is more true if the RoC armed forces can hold a port, probably Hualien on the east coast.

If the RoC forces want to win, it will probably retreat into the mountains, and try to hold onto the east coast of the island for as long as they can. On land, it can simply try to block the narrow coastal passages leading to the eastern side. Taiwan will seek to consolidate most of its missile forces on the east side, and probably try to fly its combat aircraft there, or if that is not possible, to Japan. The mountains will act as some form of barrier against cruise missiles from the west. While the PLAN can of course sail their naval forces to the east, this will expose their warships to some extent to missile strikes.

If Chinese forces have successfully landed and occupied the Western side of Taiwan, it means China already has air superiority over all of Taiwan, which includes the airports and seaports.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Colonel
Registered Member
I don't agree with this. 9/11 was a surprise to an extent. If the US carriers sinks in a war with China it would logical as that's what happens in wars. Imo if the US loses LA, China will lose Beijing, then the US will lose San Fransisco, then China would lose Shanghai, etc.. No one wins, expect Taiwan.
You got it all backwards. If U.S. loses L.A. and their next target is Beijing where the center of government is located and then somehow you assume that China will choose to target San Francisco? Are you n..ts..the next step would be to target Washington D.C. along with the White House and everything in this vicinity. You don't target cities that are of no relevance to your enemy especially when the focal point of governance of the country (China) has been evaporated.

And if you think that the U.S. will be more than willing to die for Taiwan based on a non existent history then please point me to some historical facts or events so I can be enlightened and be informed of this situation.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Colonel
Registered Member
So what would be Taiwan's strategy in the event of an attack from China? What should the RoC commander do?
What can they do? The actual active forces for the island is less than 200 k last time I checked and with questionable training or moral issues. Of the 200 k how many in that number are willing to fight to the death and fight to the blaze of glory knowing that the end game (if U.S. decided to stay put) is a certain PLA victory. Are their resolve going to be strengthened or by hearing the realization that uncle Sam won't be there for them will cripple their nerves and crush their hopes and simply will surrender en masse.

The west keeps questioning and pointing out the relative combat inexperience of the PLA but that criticism equally applies to the troops in Taiwan if not more so. I don't recall or reading where Taiwan military has distinguished itself militarily against I don't know which enemy combatants.

The will of China to reunify this way ward island and the dreams of many Chinese to finally reunite all of Chinese land and territories lost against imperialist powers are beyond the comprehension, understanding, and appreciation that many in the west fails to understand, accept, and comprehend. The will of Taiwanese independent advocates maybe vocal in the media but their zeal to transfer that rhetoric into actual combat by signing up with their military is laughably pathetic. They (the people in Taiwan) have learned the western way of fighting by basically outsourcing their outrage unto someone else foolish enough to die for their cause they themselves unwilling to die for.
 

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