Chinese Hypersonic Developments (HGVs/HCMs)

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I wonder how the West will react when China has the first moonbase with inhabitants-mining He3 etc-and even a Mars base and the first Chinese couple having a Chinese baby in space.I have never badmouth the Americans/West in general-respecting their historic/scientific/military accomplishments ...but now when they sound off and trash talk Chinese like Indians(!!)-it's very distasteful.
Moon base they will brush off as Americans have already been to the moon. But if China beat them to Mars, it will be a massive, paradigm-shifting reality check for most Americans.

Beijing knows this, which is why it is in no rush to go to Mars first. Because it does not want a repeat of the Sputnik impact where the shock of having fallen behind galvanised the Americans to turbocharge their technology.

I think China will go with its own timescale no matter what the Americans do when it comes to Mars and not really actually engage in a race. That is because China’s timetable is set such that by the time a Chinese lands on Mars, it will be far too late for America to try and catch up. If the Americans get there first they can maintain their delusions for some years more, but if they take shortcuts (like they did with Apollo, which they get lucky on) and fail badly, while China succeeds, it will serve as the final nail in the coffin of the ‘American century’.
 

Kabir

Banned Idiot
Registered Member
You know, some people think hypersonic missiles are just a different shape than other missile systems have done for decades, which I think is complete insanity.

Routinely, when I talk to some other military enthusiasts, they always make this observation about hypersonic missiles, especially when it comes to Russian and Chinese hypersonic missiles that, for some of these enthusiasts, are aiming for nuclear attack, as opposed to the American hypersonic program, aiming quite the conventional scenario, saying that hypersonic missiles are bound to be more accurate than Russian and Chinese, the CPS/LRHW terminal seeker confirms this but will only be implemented in the next Increment program.

The fact is, missiles like Russia's Avangard are making the Americans reshape an entire offensive and defensive apparatus, changing their doctrinal stance that has been in use since the time when the Soviet Union was at its height of military might. The American ABM network is unable to protect the CONUS from missiles like Avangard, the THAAD may have some limited capability against this type of missile, but nothing to conclude that the success rate would be acceptable, and the range would have to be extensively increased to create a credible defense capability. The fact is that even missiles that are in theory less accurate than the Americans are doing are reshaping an entire doctrinal concept that has been in use for many decades.

Moving away from this general perspective of the matter, missiles that are operational like the Avangard and the DF-17, both HGVs, sounded the alert for the Pentagon, although the Americans have been testing hypersonic technology for a long time, probably longer than the Russians and Chinese, Americans lagged behind when it comes to hypersonic missiles, several statements by the US Military High Command report they are in a state of disappointment because the DoD does not yet have any hypersonic missiles operational in the armed forces, while China and Russia are already operational , that from a military point of view, suggests that there are some strategic advantages.

As for the issue of global reach FOBS or HGV, if it is really confirmed, it would be just one more proof that Americans are behind the Chinese in this race. I honestly don't believe in very long range HGV, I would expect the Chinese to implement it in ever-increasing range scale until reaching the point where range would no longer be a priority, the leap in range of the DF-17 (2,500 km ) for a global range HGV (+15,000 km) from my point of view would be unattainable in the short/medium term. The most realistic concept in my opinion would be FOBS + HGV, with HGV being released near Mexico, still far enough away to avoid tracking by ABM radars, it would be a more workable concept, again, from my point of view.
Informative post
May be a nuisance question, but since i do not know, i would like to ask, what differs a HGV from a general RV? I have heard the mach 5 theory, but a RV, when separates from missiles during re-entry, has far more speed than Mach 5, why does it not act like HGV does? Is it because of there are also matters of aero dynamics?
 

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
Informative post
May be a nuisance question, but since i do not know, i would like to ask, what differs a HGV from a general RV? I have heard the mach 5 theory, but a RV, when separates from missiles during re-entry, has far more speed than Mach 5, why does it not act like HGV does? Is it because of there are also matters of aero dynamics?
Before talking about the differences between HGVs and RVs, let's talk about the similarity between different types of missiles. RVs are missiles "packaged" inside a ballistic missile that is only "ejected" after completing the apogee of its trajectory then "diving" straight towards the target at hypersonic speeds, the HGV is also "packaged" into a ballistic missile , but the difference is that the missile is "ejected" even before completing the heyday of the ballistic missile trajectory, when the reinforcement phase ends, where the HGV dives into the atmosphere and begins to glide at hypersonic speeds, in order to perform leaps to avoid both exoatmospheric and endoatmospheric interceptors. As can be seen, RVs are a type of missile that performs most of its trajectory outside the atmosphere, the HGV in comparison performs jumps in and out of the atmosphere, most of which is made while still in the atmosphere, for this reason is called a "boost-glide" which adopts glide at hypersonic speeds.

In terms of speed, an RV can have higher speeds than an HGV, most certainly do. Most of the time the RV is out of the atmosphere, it gains speeds that are only slowed down when the missile re-enters the atmosphere and starts to suffer atmospheric drag, but even this drag is much smaller than an HGV or HCM, because the RV it just re-enters and dives towards the target, the drag is decreased due to this pre-set trajectory of an RV.

An HGV in comparison trades speeds for altitude/range to evade the defensive systems of the West. Just to clarify the terminal phase of a missile that adopts the boost-glide concept is when it leaves the “glide” phase and stops bouncing in the atmosphere to change speed for altitude/range and dives towards the target until impact. At this stage it does not maneuver as it wants to move towards the target and any corrective maneuver implemented by the guidance system is of small amplitude and likely to be compensated by a sur/air missile, any maneuver in this direction is random step, even to achieve the best target location, some correction needs to be made, from HGV let alone HCM. An advantage of the HGV is that as it only allows defense in the terminal phase (for now and for the next 10 or 15 years) being immune from the intermediate phase (glide) to defend itself, the US would have to have hundreds of defense systems protecting the possible high-value targets. Exoatmospheric intercept systems, on the other hand, are capable of protecting huge areas, even the entire country in the case of the GBI, but tracking is made impossible by the curvature of the earth.

To put the scope into question:

The radar horizon of an object that has reached the apogee of 1200 km is 4500 km(RVs).
The radar horizon of an object in orbit at a height of 150 km is 1600 km away (Chinese Glide-FOBS (G-FOBS)).
The radar horizon of an object 50 km high is 950 km(HGVs).

In all cases, there is enough reaction time for a defense, whether continental, area or point.
Considering all cases as being a speed of 7 km/s, disregarding the parabolic trajectory and variations in speed and aerodynamic drag on reentry.

In the first case there would be a time before impact of 10 minutes.
In the second case it would be almost 4 minutes.
In the third case it would be just over 2 minutes.

The difficulty of intercepting hypersonic threats today, especially HGVs, is not due to their speed but to the altitude at which they fly. The endoatmospheric anti-aircraft and anti-ballistic systems in use today have a vertical range in the range of less than 35 km. HGV-type vehicles fly over 40 km. There is a relatively safe range between 40 and 100 km that is currently not reached by either endoatmospheric or exoatmospheric interceptors. With the exception of THAAD which operates between 40 km and 150 km. The SM-6 and the PAC-3 MSE from 30 km down.

A hypersonic (non-engine) glider does not seem to me to be capable of a trajectory into the atmosphere (even at high altitudes) around the earth due to the loss of speed through friction. Even maneuverability is highly restricted because any wider maneuver at these speeds the loss of kinetic energy is significant.

This current technology of hypersonics offers a greater degree of difficulty because it comes “bouncing” in the atmosphere in order to reach the target by “gliding” and naturally changes its trajectory in a random way, which makes it difficult to intercept in the intermediate phase (glide phase). It will still take at least a decade before there are interceptors that act effectively in this phase (the THAAD is a remote possibility), but in the terminal phase, when it stops gliding and dives towards the target, a hypersonic is not much different from a ballistic reentry vehicle, and in theory just as interceptable as this one, it would give interceptors a kinetic window to shoot down the enemy hypersonic missile. Again, this is in theory. Small maneuvers as well as the altitude at which they plan make interceptor systems very limited, hypersonic missiles are changing a whole concept of missile defense, advances with the THAAD and the PAC-3 MSE are currently in development. The SM-6 some sources indicate it is capable of shooting down a hypersonic missile, but nothing has been confirmed so far by testing.

As I said, some assertions realize that current hypersonic missiles only do the same type of work as previous missiles, but only in a different way, which makes it a promising technology, but not a requirement to have a revolution in the world. military affairs.

It's the same problem 70 years ago and it has never ceased to exist for the simple fact that it is impossible to defend against saturation of ICBMs or SLBMs. If the US launches its ICBMs + SLBMs + cruise missiles with the baits, we're talking about 2000 simultaneous targets – Russia and China have similar capabilities. There is, and never has been, a defense for this. For example (I'm guessing numerically in a hyperbolic way), two hundred of these maneuverable HGVs that cannot be intercepted will do the same job as 2000 traditional ballistic missiles, as several of them will be stopped. And the maintenance costs of 200 HGVs would be much less than 2,000 ICBMs. Some advantage these countries are seeing and are not stuck in a technology of the past decades, a new race is in fact underway around these hypersonic missiles.

ICBMs or SLBMs are ballistic missiles. For example. If you launch one of these from China to the US, you'll have a good idea of where it left off and where it's going to go, just by calculating the trajectory. This makes its interception possible. That's how the entire American ABM apparatus works. Russian and Chinese HGVs, on the other hand, have maneuverability, which makes the calculation for interception impossible. These are totally different concepts.

Forgive me if there is any error in the text, I'm using google translator and it's not a good tool.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
It's the same problem 70 years ago and it has never ceased to exist for the simple fact that it is impossible to defend against saturation of ICBMs or SLBMs.
Wrong focus. Since China has a much smaller arsenal, she only care about being able to deliver enough nukes to her attacker after a surprise first strike against her.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Moon base they will brush off as Americans have already been to the moon. But if China beat them to Mars, it will be a massive, paradigm-shifting reality check for most Americans.

Beijing knows this, which is why it is in no rush to go to Mars first. Because it does not want a repeat of the Sputnik impact where the shock of having fallen behind galvanised the Americans to turbocharge their technology.

I think China will go with its own timescale no matter what the Americans do when it comes to Mars and not really actually engage in a race. That is because China’s timetable is set such that by the time a Chinese lands on Mars, it will be far too late for America to try and catch up. If the Americans get there first they can maintain their delusions for some years more, but if they take shortcuts (like they did with Apollo, which they get lucky on) and fail badly, while China succeeds, it will serve as the final nail in the coffin of the ‘American century’.
Mars is totally unprofitable, if they waste their resources in that toxic frozen dump all the better. Meanwhile, Luna Base PRC will be generating returns in energy, helium, tourism, vacuum refined metals, scientific services, etc.

Energy is supreme in space. Moon is very energy rich. You can actually run not only solar panels but geothermal gas turbines on the moon (between +100C in exposed surfaces to -100C in a shaded crater). At the poles you have 24/7 insolation in some places. With that amount of power you can run a staggering amount of processes against the thermodynamic energy gradient such as producing oxygen while refining ultra pure metals. Moon has limited water but it has everything else.

Mars is energy poor, everything is fully oxidized already (no chemical energy), planet has dead interior (no geothermal energy) and is far from the sun (poor solar energy). It has almost no potential. Atmosphere is too thin to provide pressure support but thick enough to complicate landings and produce bad weather. You don't need to bring water but you need to bring everything else.
 

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
Wrong focus. Since China has a much smaller arsenal, she only care about being able to deliver enough nukes to her attacker after a surprise first strike against her.
Just out of curiosity, did you stop reading this passage or did you read it to the end? Because if you read to the end, you will see what I said next and that I would answer your question.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Just out of curiosity, did you stop reading this passage or did you read it to the end? Because if you read to the end, you will see what I said next and that I would answer your question.
Yes I did. Just tire of people repeating the same mantra when it has nothing to do with China’s or Russia's reasons for developing hypersonic weapons (or in Russia’s case, nuclear cruise missiles and torpedoes). American’s ABM defense and its first strike posture are the key drivers. Both worries their arsenals get wiped out in a first strike and the American ABM defense pickoff the surviving nukes.
 

caudaceus

Senior Member
Registered Member
Mars is totally unprofitable, if they waste their resources in that toxic frozen dump all the better. Meanwhile, Luna Base PRC will be generating returns in energy, helium, tourism, vacuum refined metals, scientific services, etc.

Energy is supreme in space. Moon is very energy rich. You can actually run not only solar panels but geothermal gas turbines on the moon (between +100C in exposed surfaces to -100C in a shaded crater). At the poles you have 24/7 insolation in some places. With that amount of power you can run a staggering amount of processes against the thermodynamic energy gradient such as producing oxygen while refining ultra pure metals. Moon has limited water but it has everything else.

Mars is energy poor, everything is fully oxidized already (no chemical energy), planet has dead interior (no geothermal energy) and is far from the sun (poor solar energy). It has almost no potential. Atmosphere is too thin to provide pressure support but thick enough to complicate landings and produce bad weather. You don't need to bring water but you need to bring everything else.
TIL that oxidization is an exothermic process. If everything is oxidized then the potential chemical energy is nil.
Come to think of it does burning fuel classified as oxidation?
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
TIL that oxidization is an exothermic process. If everything is oxidized then the potential chemical energy is nil.
Come to think of it does burning fuel classified as oxidation?
Yes. You burn hydrocarbon. Let's say that hydrocarbons are essentially covalent, so carbon in hydrocarbon goes from oxidation state 0 to oxidation state +4. Hydrogen goes from oxidation state 0 to +1. Oxygen goes from state 0 to -2. You can calculate the expected energy release with general chemistry knowledge.

Oxidation of solids from oxidizing elements (oxygen and halogens) is typically exothermic because the products (oxides/halides) are energetically more stable than the reactants. However oxidation is entropy negative, so with input of energy, you can reverse it.

Mars is chemically dead, geologically dead and has weak sunlight.

The Moon is also fully oxidized, true. However because you have tons of energy (solar electric or heat engine electric) you can go against the enthalpy gradient with thermal vacuum refining and basically boil the oxygen off with pure heat. The vacuum also helps because you won't get passivation of the surface or dissociative thermal reactions, you just get pure oxygen and pure metal.

I posted an article about how China proved this with a prototype on the moon already.

Ok I'm straying from the topic, if you want to talk space exploration we can talk in space program thread.
 
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