China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
RT pot stirring. I think as far as the US coastline is concerned the situation with the SCS is not comparable. China's concerns are that her sea lanes are geographically vulnerable and constricted by the first island chain, so the US playing around in the SCS is much more of a serious and existential threat than any PLAN exercises off the US coasts, neither of which are restricted in the same way China's is. China could send PLAN ships to the US coast to send a message, but US can *afford* to brush it off and take the moral high road in a way China can't. If the PLAN really want to send a message that is in some way comparable, it'd wouldn't be the US mainland, but much more likely something like mounting an exercise near the Hawaiian islands and running "FONOPS" through the straits between the islands, emphasising the ease of blockading them, their vulnerability, and distance from any reinforcement or support from the US mainland.
Another good target would be the Panama Canal. China can just blackmail the US that incase anything happens, China will fire a hundred missiles in the Canal to destroy the infrastructure and thus destroying movement of ships across it.
If you see any image of it, just 1 missile is enough to block it for quite some time. Now imagine 100 at various chokepoints. It would totally destroy it.
Btw same with Suez Canal as well. But because Egypt is a friendly China nation, then China should just tell them to block incoming shipment to the Mediterranean. That would only happen of the EU found some courage to intervene against China.
If Egypt doesn't give "face" then just throw some missile to that canal
My point is that China has a myriad of unconventional methods of escalating incase either the US or the EU try to blockade or do something similar
I think the Caribbean is the ideal spot for reciprocity, sailing off the coast of Florida would do it, maybe in the tiny gap of international water between the US and the Bahamas and Cuba before sailing around the oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
solarz
Brigadier
They could, if this was the US of 10 years ago.
Nowadays, the optics of the Chinese navy doing exercises off the coast of the US would be enormously damaging to any administration that doesn't respond to it. The US is currently suffering a crisis of faith, and anything that challenges their belief of superiority will be considered a serious threat.
The purpose of such a exercises will not be to prevent future American shenanigans in the SCS, but rather to discourage the US from any thoughts of intervening in an armed reunification scenario with Taiwan. The only reason the US can currently talk so blithely about fighting China in Taiwan is because they still think themselves invulnerable at home.
There is also the issue of China not making any very visible moves so that the Americans wont unite against a common enemy. Yes, the US Elite try to ramp up propaganda against China but ultimately, the majority of Americans think that China is too far away from them and thus dont give it a high priority.
In your opinion, what is the best move by China regarding naval passage/exercise on their shores? You made a great point about the US "suffering a crisis of faith" which I agree with. There is also the point of China not elevating its threat level to the US population so that it can have more strategic time for development.
I am in a dilemma between making a visible action or staying "low". Thoughts?
An elephant can't hide behind a tree and a low threat perception also means the public thinks they can get away with anything they want. That builds public support for conflict in a xenophobic social Darwinist society.
The elites know anyways so you can't fool them no matter how low you go.
solarz
Brigadier
Covid-19 killed over 600,000 Americans. Did they "unite against a common enemy"? On the contrary, they argued bitterly about the measures designed to fight this enemy.
The majority of American public still think of China as some backwater nation that makes cheap stuff for them. They still believe the American military can sink the Chinese navy in half an hour. That's why they will vociferously support any anti-China politician because they are used to beating up other nations with impunity.
A PLAN fleet showing up off the coast of California will be a rude awakening, and make them think twice about their China-hawk politicians' demagoguery.
Given that Sino-Cuban relations are strong, there could be benefit in an exercise in the Cuba-Florida strait and around eastern Cuba directly highlighting Guantanamo Bay as an military facility that blatantly flies in the face of the "rules-based international order", as well as providing an obvious Taiwan analogue. Caribbean exercises could also emphasise China's willingness to defend allies and investments in the region - Venezuela and Cuba are both important anchors for China in the western hemisphere and both are under intense US pressure. Exercises here would be a direct answer to America's claim to be supporting her allies in the SCC from Chinese pressure. If one is fine, the other is too, right?
That said, personally, I still feel that the Hawaiian islands would send the clearest possible coherent message that is also proportionate, and is also comparatively easy for the PLAN to perform with a sizable enough fleet to make the point clear (having a complete carrier group on exercise would be the cherry on the cake). It's worth remembering that while the PLAN can deploy to the Atlantic, it's not nearly as easy or sustainable as it is for the US to do in the SCS, and the Americans know that. Having to very visibly stretch your reach to the absolute limit to send a message isn't a good look. It needs to be seen to be easy, trivial, even. It needs to say "We can do this any time we like, it's no biggie."
Good one. I nearly forgot that. Yeah, where's all those international law and order brigade?