China's Space Program News Thread

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taxiya

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If China really does intent to land a man on Mars in 2033
And to everyone else who is a bit over excited.

That is 99.9% a sensational misrepresentation by Reuters and any other media who quote from Reuters (including many Chinese news).

Here is an original Chinese report of the event who did not quote Reuters.
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In this section Wang Xiaojun was quated as saying

载人火星探测任务架构

影响任务构架设计的因素有地火转移轨道类型、出发时间、出发点、推进技术、是否采用气动捕获等。

地火转移轨道类型:基本轨道分为长停留合式轨道短停留冲式轨道。地球和火星之间也存在着循环轨道可以定期重返地球和火星,适用于长期多次的载人火星探测任务。

出发时间:2033年、2035年、2037年、2041年、2043年


He was discussing in general terms about all three types of transfer orbits. One periodic orbit which is the two year interval. The 2033, 2035...... were presented as "so on and etc." (等). Apparently, he did not state that China had made a plan of any dates in these years. He was merely talking technology, and these years were "for example, such as etc."

In Reuters report, 2033 became the first manned launch to mars as planned, the following launches became regular launches. Even the title that I quoted above gives the room for misunderstanding "envision: regular explore forming economy zone".

In principle, medias want to exaggerate the facts to gain profit, western or China alike. We should not believe them until we have a chance to cross examine them.
 
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Quickie

Colonel
2025: Single stage engineering implementation - rocket powered, vertical take off, horizontal landing, controllable (something), partly reusable

2030: Two stage engineering implementation - rocket powered, vertical take off, horizontal landing, controllable (something), fully reusable

2035: Complete reusable - combined cycle engine, horizontal take off and landing, single stage to orbit, fully reusable

Is the rocket stage the spacecraft carrier itself? Or the carrier rides on top of a rocket stage at launching?
 

taxiya

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Maybe this is expected as I am a fan of SpaceX, but i would love to see China (after mastering reusability) doing their own Starship-style architecture.

It would open whole new industries for space such as internet (ala Starlink), space manufacturing, military, habitats, rapid cargo deployment (miltary & civilian), telescopes etc.
Apparently, CNSA is not buying the "starship" idea from the look of the new CZ-9(21). CZ-9(21) is still a traditional rocket with smaller (compared to starship) 2nd and 3rd stage instead of a huge reusable 2nd stage of starship.

The starship making a huge 2nd stage (combined 2nd and 3rd stages) because it takes a big load of fuel for landing. This means it is only for LEO mission in reusable mode. CZ-9(21) on the other hand is mainly for deep space mission.

If Starship wanted to do deep space mission (no landing), it will carry a big dead weight all the way, costing lots of DV at any moment of acceleration and deceleration. To do the same job as CZ-9, starship together with its first stage the superheavy will have to be much much larger than today. But we are seeing it shrinking in capability rather than increasing.

That tells us that, even in the eyes of Elon Musk, starship is not the same thing as CZ-9 or Saturn 5 etc. He is not saying it, but his act is showing it. The issue with fans is that they only see what they wanted to see, regardless what the reality shows, even regardless what Elon himself does or does not.
 

Quickie

Colonel
I imagine until the final SSTO both the carrier as well as the orbiter will be purely rocket powered, hence vertical take off.

It's just instead of being normal tube shaped rockets they are shaped like spaceplanes to allow recovery via glide.

If that's the case, it'll be in some part similar to Starship. The main difference is the SSTO carrier carries its payload on the outside in a piggyback manner.
 

Blitzo

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Apparently, CNSA is not buying the "starship" idea from the look of the new CZ-9(21). CZ-9(21) is still a traditional rocket with smaller (compared to starship) 2nd and 3rd stage instead of a huge reusable 2nd stage of starship.

The starship making a huge 2nd stage (combined 2nd and 3rd stages) because it takes a big load of fuel for landing. This means it is only for LEO mission in reusable mode. CZ-9(21) on the other hand is mainly for deep space mission.

If Starship wanted to do deep space mission (no landing), it will carry a big dead weight all the way, costing lots of DV at any moment of acceleration and deceleration. To do the same job as CZ-9, starship together with its first stage the superheavy will have to be much much larger than today. But we are seeing it shrinking in capability rather than increasing.

That tells us that, even in the eyes of Elon Musk, starship is not the same thing as CZ-9 or Saturn 5 etc. He is not saying it, but his act is showing it. The issue with fans is that they only see what they wanted to see, regardless what the reality shows, even regardless what Elon himself does or does not.

To be honest, whether CZ-9 pursues a starship-esque second stage or not into the more distant future, is less significant than whether the first stage of the rocket is compatible with VTVL reusability -- that's where the greatest value and cost savings lie.

The redesign of CZ-9(21) looks quite meaningful in that regard, because now the first stage looks very much compatible with a VTVL architecture if they wanted to pursue it.

Whether a reusable starship esque second stage is developed for CZ-9(21) into the future is another question, but getting the first stage right IMO is of far greater consequence.
 

Blitzo

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From the look of the PPT and his words, it is not clear whether CZ-9(11) is to be replaced by CZ-9(21) right now, or CZ-9(21) is to replace CZ-9(11) in a much later time with CZ-9(11) at least CZ-9B(11) being put into operation first. I highly suspect the second alternative being the plane due to the fact that the new engines are in much earlier stage in development unless China don't need a super heavy before earliest 2035. That would be against the idea of moon base plan.

On this part specifically -- do you think it's likely that they will pursue any iteration of the CZ-9(11) variant if they pursue CZ-9(21) anyway?

Specifically, CZ-9(21) will be using new engines (YF-135 in first stage, and a new 120t engine), while CZ-9(11) would've used YF-130 and YF-90.

Looking at CZ-9(21), in all respects it looks like it should be superior to CZ-9(11) including with the potential for reusability, so I wonder whether it would make sense for them to pursue CZ-9(11) with necessary time, money and expertise to complete development and build a production line for YF-130 and YF-90, if they will end up being abandoned for CZ-9(21) and YF-135 and the new 120t engine a few years afterwards anyway?
 

Kejora

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On this part specifically -- do you think it's likely that they will pursue any iteration of the CZ-9(11) variant if they pursue CZ-9(21) anyway?

Specifically, CZ-9(21) will be using new engines (YF-135 in first stage, and a new 120t engine), while CZ-9(11) would've used YF-130 and YF-90.

Looking at CZ-9(21), in all respects it looks like it should be superior to CZ-9(11) including with the potential for reusability, so I wonder whether it would make sense for them to pursue CZ-9(11) with necessary time, money and expertise to complete development and build a production line for YF-130 and YF-90, if they will end up being abandoned for CZ-9(21) and YF-135 and the new 120t engine a few years afterwards anyway?
I think the reason they initially design CZ-9 with boosters was so they could adjust the payload from 50 ton to 100 ton and 140 ton to LEO depending on the number of booster. Since the appearance of triple cored CZ-5DY (70 ton LEO) the scalability option is unnecessary so they change it to single cored full power version (150 ton LEO). Also if they want to send sample return mission to Mars they could use CZ-5DY instead of CZ-9B.
 

Blitzo

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I think the reason they initially design CZ-9 with boosters was so they could adjust the payload from 50 ton to 100 ton and 140 ton to LEO depending on the number of booster. Since the appearance of triple cored CZ-5DY (70 ton LEO) the scalability option is unnecessary so they change it to single cored full power version (150 ton LEO). Also if they want to send sample return mission to Mars they could use CZ-5DY instead of CZ-9B.

I think that is very much a plausible explanation.
Looking at all of China's forthcoming rocket projects, I think the three most important ones are CZ-5DY (70 ton LEO) and the single first stage CZ-5DY variant (20+ ton LEO), and CZ-9(21) (150 ton LEO), for space goals into late this decade and going into the 2030s.


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I consider them important because CZ-5DY, CZ-5DY single and CZ-9(21) all have the commonalities of having the potential to be adaptable for reusability of their first stage, and also because they slot neatly into what I consider to be useful load categories.
Furthermore, I think that consolidating their rockets into these two broad types -- CZ-5DY (single and triple) and CZ-9(21) -- can produce economies of scale if other rockets (CZ-7, current CZ-5 family, and CZ-8 and of course older rockets like CZ-3 family) are abandoned once they've fulfilled their roles this decade.
Of course, "fast reaction" rockets will still be retained (like CZ-11), and encouragement of commercial endeavours like the KZ family and other companies would still be useful.

But for major state launchers, I think the single CZ-5DY with 20+ ton LEO should be the "smallest" launcher they should pursue, with middle being the triple CZ-5DY 70 tons to LEO, and large being CZ-9(21) with 150 tons to LEO

The scientific and space exploration options that these categories will offer, naturally is significant.


But in terms of pursuit of technologies and ISR for military applications, it is also very significant.

The US has already broadcasted its intent to deploy a large number of LEO satellites for ISR purposes and for their missile and hypersonic defense purposes. I expect equally ambitious goals for GEO satellites as well, to become further solidified.

The limitations of satellites for ISR and defense purposes in LEO and GEO can basically be separated into:
1. number of satellites -- where more satellites provide better coverage (whether it's as a sensor, as a communications relay or whatever), as well as redundancy in case one is incapacitated
2. mass of each individual satellite -- where a larger satellite at any given orbit will inevitably be more capable than a smaller satellite at the same given orbit (due to a combination of a more powerful sensor, transmission/receiving capabilities, more propellant, etc -- which of course are all dependent on the satellite's inherent mass)


1. and 2. are both limited by the throw weight and cost of the rocket transporting it.
Greater throw weight means you can launch a larger number of smaller satellites in the same launch, or you can launch a smaller number of larger rockets in the same launch.
The cost of the rocket (which can be lowered by reusability) in turn means you can do more launches overall.


The ability to regularly put up 20 tons, or 70 tons or 150 tons into LEO, massively broadens the scope of the capabilities that you can bring to the table both in terms of LEO satellite swarms and more capable individual LEO satellites.

The ability of those same rockets to put payloads into GEO is even more consequential due to their ability to constantly observe a region of earth, but are currently limited by resolution -- currently the most capable GEO satellite China arguably has is the 4.6 ton GF-4 with an EO sensor, launched by a CZ-3B.
Imagine what a CZ-5DY with 70 ton to LEO could launch for GEO, or what a CZ-9(21) with 150 ton to LEO could launch for GEO, and how much more capable their payloads could be compared to current CZ-3 and CZ-5 families -- how regularly they could launch, if their first stages were recoverable?


Then remember that the US is already closing in on that capability with Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and Starship/Super Heavy, and that is why I see the likes of CZ-5DY family and CZ-9(21) as very important.


Furthermore, if the unthinkable happens and the US pursues full fledged weaponization of space to kill each other's space based assets or to even use space based platforms against targets on earth (rather than only using space as a means of ISR/networking/navigation), you can bet that the likes of Starship and Falcon Heavy would be involved in deploying those assets.


Now, obviously I am being somewhat pessimistic here in projecting a worst case scenario regarding the militarization of space. However, I think it would be irresponsible to talk about these new launch vehicles from the US/SpaceX without considering their vast potential for achieving superiority in space based systems (even if it is "only" ISR/networking/navigation purposes), and China's likely assessed need to at least match them.
 
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