China's Space Program News Thread

[taxiya]

921 rocket now called CZ-5DY. Latest design appears to have no launch abort tower compared to previous. I'm guessing it's integrated into the new space capsule?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1407953924515143683

In the PPT, the moon version does not have escape tower, but the LEO version does.

I don't always trust too much of the PPT even if it is presented by Long Lehao. I have seen many apparent inconsistencies in PPTs from CASC. They seems to not bother too much of it. For example, in the new PPT, LH/LO 2nd stage of CZ-9(11) is open cycle engine, but the recent announced test was close cycle staged engine.

Regarding the abort system of the moon version, we need to remember that the spacecraft is the same as the LEO version using the same propulsion rocket. The rocket's acceleration characteristic remains the same. If the LEO version has to use escape tower, the moon version has to do the same.

 

[Nutrient]

You want to bring water from Phobos back to the moon? Are you kidding?

No, I'm not kidding. We can use most of Phobos' water as propellant for sending a fraction of that to the lunar base (ILRS). Phobos' mass is 1x10^16 kg, and most of that should be water. That is a hell of a lot of water.

Phobos is scheduled to crash into Mars in 50 million years. I don’t think you need to worry about using it or losing it.

I'm in no hurry to use up Phobos. I just won't feel guilty about mining it, as the little moon is scheduled to crash into Mars anyway.

 

[anzha]

I'm in no hurry to use up Phobos. I just won't feel guilty about mining it, as the little moon is scheduled to crash into Mars anyway.

Just curious, has China taken a formal stance on off-world resources?

 

[taxiya]

Here is the full video of Long Lehao's presentation in Hong Kong Polytech University

What Long Lehao said about CZ-9 were in two occasions.

At around 1:37:48
(translation of what he said)
... BUT now we have proposed a new version this year. In the new version we do not need the low and medium variants CZ-9A/B(11) because their job are taken over by CZ-5DY (aka 921). So we will ONLY develop the base model (CZ-9(21)).

At around 1:30:59
He said that 2028 Mars sample return can be launched by one CZ-9 (CZ-9B in the PPT) OR CZ-5+CZ-3BG2.

From the look of the PPT and his words, it is not clear whether CZ-9(11) is to be replaced by CZ-9(21) right now, or CZ-9(21) is to replace CZ-9(11) in a much later time with CZ-9(11) at least CZ-9B(11) being put into operation first. I highly suspect the second alternative being the plane due to the fact that the new engines are in much earlier stage in development unless China don't need a super heavy before earliest 2035. That would be against the idea of moon base plan.

 

[voyager1]

BUT now we have proposed a new version this year.

So is this a study or something? Because from the wording it doesn't seem like the plan has been approved yet

 

[Richard Santos]

Here is the full video of Long Lehao's presentation in Hong Kong Polytech University

What Long Lehao said about CZ-9 were in two occasions.

At around 1:37:48
(translation of what he said)
... BUT now we have proposed a new version this year. In the new version we do not need the low and medium variants CZ-9A/B(11) because their job are taken over by CZ-5DY (aka 921). So we will ONLY develop the base model (CZ-9(21)).

At around 1:30:59
He said that 2028 Mars sample return can be launched by one CZ-9 (CZ-9B in the PPT) OR CZ-5+CZ-3BG2.

From the look of the PPT and his words, it is not clear whether CZ-9(11) is to be replaced by CZ-9(21) right now, or CZ-9(21) is to replace CZ-9(11) in a much later time with CZ-9(11) at least CZ-9B(11) being put into operation first. I highly suspect the second alternative being the plane due to the fact that the new engines are in much earlier stage in development unless China don't need a super heavy before earliest 2035. That would be against the idea of moon base plan.

The rocketdyne F-1 engine was developed in about 7 years, while the Saturn 5’s first mission flight occurred about 10 years after development of F-1 engine began.

given far more cumulative rocket and rocket engine development experience now, and much more sophisticated modeling, design and analysis tools, why is it supposed that LZ9 will take longer to develop?

 

[taxiya]

So is this a study or something? Because from the wording it doesn't seem like the plan has been approved yet

depends on what do you mean by "plan" and "approval".

If China has decided on a moon station, then there must be a super heavy, that super heavy will get CZ-9 as designation regardless the configuration under study or when it will be realized. That decision approves everything related.

I think people including many Chinese have focused on the "approval" and its date too much. It is quite irrelevant in the way how these kinds of programs are done in China. It is not like in the west where any program and their component sub-program must receive Congressional budget approvals every year that are publicly announced or accessible. Even in the US such date may only be revealed years later when the confidential date expires. But in China there is no such rule to reveal such information ever. For example, we have never heard of the approval date of J-10, J-20, Chang'e program and the CVs until today. We only heard the approval date of the retired 09I and 09II nuclear boats very recently by its chief designer in a CCTV interview.

 

[taxiya]

The rocketdyne F-1 engine was developed in about 7 years, while the Saturn 5’s first mission flight occurred about 10 years after development of F-1 engine began.

given far more cumulative rocket and rocket engine development experience now, and much more sophisticated modeling, design and analysis tools, why is it supposed that LZ9 will take longer to develop?

I was judging on China's own road map, not based on the US's experience.

In case of F-1, they did not increase the demand of F-1's combustion chamber by 50% 3 years into the development. While YF-135's combustion chamber (360t) is 50% more than YF-130 (240t). This is a totally new engine, and much more advanced.

Also, CZ-9(21) is a new rocket even it carries the same designation, the fuselage is 10.6m compared to 9.5m of CZ-9(11). They would take some time to try and build the new fuselage and tank, upgrading their tooling.

The strength and stress study has to be done again and so on.

In the road map, the first launch of CZ-9 is between 2028 and 2030. Therefor adding some years (I took 5) is reasonable, which ends up around 2028 to 2035. Although China in today's tech level can do things faster than US decades ago, it still have to pay time for its own changes.

 

[Richard Santos]

These developments suggest fundamental long term plans for Chinese manned space program is being heavily revised. If China really does intent to land a man on Mars in 2033, that is a declaration of outright, no holds barred, space race with America.

This seems very analogous to Kennedy’s proclamation that american manned space program should be oriented towards landing a man on the moon within the 1960s. At the time he made this declaration, America was well behind the USSR in manned space capability. American was clearly not going to beat the Soviets to the next few major mile stones of manned space exploration. So Kennedy picked a very ambitious goal that is quite far away, so America has time to mobilizing greater technical and industrial resource to catch up.

Right now, China seems to be in the same position. If the US focus on returning to the moon, China would be well behind and has no chance of beating America. So Mars became the logical goal. It is also ambitious, and quite far away, so China has time to mobilize to catch up.

 

[davidau]

These developments suggest fundamental long term plans for Chinese manned space program is being heavily revised. If China really does intent to land a man on Mars in 2033, that is a declaration of outright, no holds barred, space race with America.

This seems very analogous to Kennedy’s proclamation that american manned space program should be oriented towards landing a man on the moon within the 1960s. At the time he made this declaration, America was well behind the USSR in manned space capability. American was clearly not going to beat the Soviets to the next few major mile stones of manned space exploration. So Kennedy picked a very ambitious goal that is quite far away, so America has time to mobilizing greater technical and industrial resource to catch up.

Right now, China seems to be in the same position. If the US focus on returning to the moon, China would be well behind and has no chance of beating America. So Mars became the logical goal. It is also ambitious, and quite far away, so China has time to mobilize to catch up.

China has zero intention to compete with any nation in space race. China just wants to do its own things as the nation is now endowed with young, brilliant engieers, scientists, mathmethicians, administrators and is determined to explore their talents in space, on land and in the sea. The perception of space race is purely coined by the West and US in particular, so that they can increase their altready high defence spending.