Transition to higher birth rates? Those people are living in a fantasy world I cannot fathom. In the modern era there has been zero transition to higher birth rates. Birth rates are going down not up. Those people are still blind to China's brutal demographic trends. Unbelievable. They should take action and lift those damn restrictions and start encouraging bigger families with whatever it takes and fast pronto.
China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
I think that Gov might prefer to drop one big Bomb than many very small bombs.
So they will keep House prices low, reduce education pressure, reduce common goods prices and then lift the one-child policy to provide an ultra stimulus.
Because if they did it right now, the births would jump for 1-2 years and then fall again. Better to wait a bit more in order to get sustainable birth boom
US is facing same problem as China:
Though they are correcting much of it by importing >1 million people per year. It is questionable how many of those >1m are good replacements for the prior generations and how many are less capable. I would not suggest China do the same unless it can promote other East Asians to immigrate. If it is outside of East Asia, it should only be the absolutely smartest, most creative, most capable individuals, and those individuals should never exceed 5% of the population or something like that (which is still 70 million people so doubtful you could even find that many).
Though they are correcting much of it by importing >1 million people per year. It is questionable how many of those >1m are good replacements for the prior generations and how many are less capable. I would not suggest China do the same unless it can promote other East Asians to immigrate. If it is outside of East Asia, it should only be the absolutely smartest, most creative, most capable individuals, and those individuals should never exceed 5% of the population or something like that (which is still 70 million people so doubtful you could even find that many).
If it wasn't for that mass migration you are talking about, America and similar western European countries would already be in a Japan like demographic situation.
Even if the non white population exceeds 50% you can bet that the people at the top will still be the same as they were 100 years ago.
Well the "situation" Japan is in is better than the US with its school shootings every 12 hours and immense civil strife and riots every 3 months and decline in every educational indicator that exists.
Sounds to me like a worse situation than Japan is in. Now I would much rather China not be in either situation, but if I had to choose? I would choose Japanese demographics over American. There is nothing good long-term in having a demographic underclass that has resentment about a majority population that previously enslaved and segregated them.
Well the "situation" Japan is in is better than the US with its school shootings every 12 hours and immense civil strife and riots every 3 months and decline in every educational indicator that exists.
Sounds to me like a worse situation than Japan is in. Now I would much rather China not be in either situation, but if I had to choose? I would choose Japanese demographics over American. There is nothing good long-term in having a demographic underclass that has resentment about a majority population that previously enslaved and segregated them.
So you would choose a waning country instead of a strong ever growing countr?
Yes there are problems but the Japan you admire so much has stagnated and cant move forward anymore.
(Still hasn't reached its 2009 GDP...)
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
You can't evaluate a country just by GDP only. Going by life indices Japan is still a wealthy and orderly country where there 2 or 3 jobs for every job seeker. Excellent social service and education system. Good health care. good infrastructure. Pretty safe country to live, crime is minuscule. Clean and orderly society. It will take China decades to achieve what Japan has now
Japan performs well in some measures of well-being in the Better Life Index. Japan ranks at the top in personal security. It ranks above the OECD average in income and wealth, education and skills, jobs and earnings, housing, personal security, and environmental quality. It is below the average in terms of civic engagement, subjective well-being, social connections, work-life balance and health status. These rankings are based on available selected data.
Money, while it cannot buy happiness, is an important means to achieving higher living standards. In Japan, the average household net-adjusted disposable income per capita is USD 29 798 a year, lower than the OECD average of USD 33 604 a year. There is a considerable gap between the richest and poorest – the top 20% of the population earn more than six times as much as the bottom 20%.
In terms of employment, 75% of people aged 15 to 64 in Japan have a paid job, above the OECD employment average of 68%. Some 83% of men are in paid work, compared with 67% of women. In Japan, the percentage of employees working very long hours is higher than the OECD average of 11%.
Good education and skills are important requisites for finding a job. Japan is a top-performing country in terms of the quality of its educational system. In Japan, the percentage of adults aged 25-64 have completed upper secondary education, is above the OECD average of 78%.The average student scored 529 in reading literacy, maths and science in the OECD's Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). This score is much higher than the OECD average of 486. Although girls outperformed boys in many OECD countries, in Japan boys scored 2 point higher than girls on average.
In terms of health, life expectancy at birth in Japan is 84 years, four years higher than the OECD average of 80 years, and one of the highest in the OECD. Life expectancy for women is 87 years, compared with 81 for men. The level of atmospheric PM2.5 – tiny air pollutant particles small enough to enter and cause damage to the lungs – is 13.8 micrograms per cubic meter, slightly lower than the OECD average of 13.9 micrograms per cubic meter. Japan does better in terms of water quality, as 87% of people say they are satisfied with the quality of their water, compared with an OECD average of 81%.
Japan is in terrible shape. It's slowly sinking from developed world status to developing world. In 1995 Japan's per capita GDP was richer than the US, and the US was richer than the UK, France, Germany, Italy, etc. Now Japan's per capita GDP is not only lower than the US but is almost lower than Spain! Soon it will be lower than every major European country. And productivity-wise it's even worse because Japanese work longer hours.
It's really sad what has happened to Japan.
US and China at least have emerging technology companies like Google, Amazon, Alibaba, Tencent, Tesla, Nio, etc. that are companies in modern industries. Japan has none. Japan has no real Internet, software, or IT industries. It failed to develop a domestic vaccine when even Vietnam, India, and Russia have developed vaccines! Japan was the first Asian country to orbit the moon yet now it cannot even put a man in space, soon they will be behind India... I can go on and on. Pretty much every industry you think of Japan is nonexistent or falling behind. The only exception is a few niche semiconductor areas like photoresist that are a relic of its past glory. And even that it won't have a monopoly on forever as China develops alternatives. Even Softbank refuses to invest in a single Japanese company! Smh. Even South Korea is doing far better than Japan. Samsung alone does more R&D than most of corporate Japan combined.
It's really sad what has happened to Japan.
US and China at least have emerging technology companies like Google, Amazon, Alibaba, Tencent, Tesla, Nio, etc. that are companies in modern industries. Japan has none. Japan has no real Internet, software, or IT industries. It failed to develop a domestic vaccine when even Vietnam, India, and Russia have developed vaccines! Japan was the first Asian country to orbit the moon yet now it cannot even put a man in space, soon they will be behind India... I can go on and on. Pretty much every industry you think of Japan is nonexistent or falling behind. The only exception is a few niche semiconductor areas like photoresist that are a relic of its past glory. And even that it won't have a monopoly on forever as China develops alternatives. Even Softbank refuses to invest in a single Japanese company! Smh. Even South Korea is doing far better than Japan. Samsung alone does more R&D than most of corporate Japan combined.