Chongqing and Chengdu are the next economic powerhouses in the region.
Chinese Economics Thread
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bajingan
Senior Member
China should try to reduce its dependency on australian minerals as much as it can
replacing australian coal with russian or indonesian coal is a good start
Next it should aim to buy more russian agriculture such as wheat and beef with the aim to totally replace australian agriculture imports
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
How can Japan be Tier 2 when it has far worse demographic problems than China...?
Also Biden "plan" avoids getting China to do anything. It's all the US organizing others and maybe it will indirectly affect China. Demanding China to do this or that has a high probability of failure hence bad mark on Biden that will be used against him by Republicans. You can say you'll organize other countries but it doesn't mean it'll deal with China. Just like Trump claiming he's acted more against China than any other President which is true but he also failed at making China submit.
Also Biden "plan" avoids getting China to do anything. It's all the US organizing others and maybe it will indirectly affect China. Demanding China to do this or that has a high probability of failure hence bad mark on Biden that will be used against him by Republicans. You can say you'll organize other countries but it doesn't mean it'll deal with China. Just like Trump claiming he's acted more against China than any other President which is true but he also failed at making China submit.
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2nd tier can be thought of making the machines that makes the machines, the high end components that goes into products, and precision instruments. Demographics alone won't necessarily cripple Japan's capacity to be in tier 2.
There's variants between each expert and think tank's assessment. I would say they fall in the tier 2 category due to its capabilities in high end manufacturing. Different reports also use different metrics mixes to create an index in which they rank nations. Some reports just use tier based on single a metric.
This article talks a bit more about the differences in the 4 tiers that has developed in the global supply chain:
1st tier is the US which is the global technology innovation hub
2nd tier are nations that produces high end manufacturing products which includes EU and Japan
3rd tier produces mid to low end manufactured products, primarily emerging economies which China is a part of
4th tier are mainly resource exporting nations including OPEC, Africa, Latin America and others
Miao Wei emphasized China is a large manufacturing nation but not yet a strong manufacturing nation and stated 4 areas where China needs to improve.
1. R&D, design, testing, core technologies, enterprise innovation
2. Foundational support capabilities
3. Product quality and reliability, product and technical standards (incomplete for certain sectors), practicality, product innovation speed (not at desired pace to maintain leadership), brand power,
4. Industrial structure, low-end over capacity, high-end under capacity, precision instruments and high end equipment that reflect comprehensive national power and international competitiveness.
The 30 year timeline is in line with his outlook that China can achieve those goals before 2049.
Here's the "2020 China Manufacturing Power Development Index Report"
Most European countries general government total expenditure is over 50%, Japan is 40% and the US is 36% not counting 2020 or 2021. China is around 33% before 2020. So don't think it is a problem .
antiterror13
Brigadier
Unlike US or EU, most big companies in China are SOE, so the dividend would go to the government
I think the key important index/measure is the fiscal deficit against GDP. And Yes China should improve it
In4ser
Junior Member
Agreed but spending isn't the problem but rather how money is being invested. The only way China can offset the demographic decline is by investing heavily in automation and AI. It's basically a race between aging and technology.
While I'm wary of capitalism, I do believe China may need to increasingly rely upon business to offset rising public costs for healthcare and lower productivity in the years to come. Hopefully, China's unique form of hybrid capitalism will ensure companies stay in line with national interests instead of selling out for money from foreign capital and private shareholders. Otherwise, China will simply fall into the same trap that the US is stuck in where there's regulatory capture by corporations and a free market slowly replaced by cronyism.