Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

[gelgoog]

...
Ask Congressional Research Service to Conduct a Study of US War Termination Behavior. The focus of this testimony is on the political and strategic factors influencing Chinese decision-making. While avoiding conflict is an important objective, ensuring that any war that does break out is as short and limited in violence as possible (and the US wins) is equally important. The US has a historical tendency toward mission creep and maximalist demands that undercut these goals. If a war breaks out over Taiwan, the United States needs to be prepared to return to the status quo antebellum, even if militarily victorious. If the US demands Taiwan independence after a military victory, we will be stuck fighting China for decades or Beijing will escalate to levels of violence we are unwilling to match or absorb.

These people are idiots. If two nuclear weapon states fought like that the result wouldn't be anyone's victory. What do they think this is, Iraq or Libya? Cities would be glassed. And not just in China.

No, the US would just acquiesce and at most make economic sanctions. Just look at what happened with Georgia and Crimea.

 

[EtherealSmoke]

These people are idiots. If two nuclear weapon states fought like that the result wouldn't be anyone's victory. What do they think this is, Iraq or Libya? Cities would be glassed. And not just in China.

No, the US would just acquiesce and at most make economic sanctions. Just look at what happened with Georgia and Crimea.

I think that quote is a revealing point and highlights the key American fear - military escalation over Taiwan.

The analyst echoes what I think is clear. China has absolute escalation dominance in regards to Taiwan.

I mean, am I missing something here? I’ve read a bit of the thread, and there’s a lot of rhetoric on Taiwanese independence and American intervention.

Militarily, American intervention is posturing and a bluff. The Americans would certainly prefer to fight a limited war to realize Taiwan independence. However, how would they keep it limited when they are afraid to escalate?

It seems to me any movement on Taiwan leads to a Cuban Missile Crisis like scenario - this time with the Chinese in place of the Americans.

I think under the current backdrop, the Americans are reevaluating all policies, including on Taiwan, as they realize China will surpass the United States given the status quo. Militarily, I don’t see how the Chinese can be defeated over Taiwan if the Chinese choose not to back down. Instead, the Americans may be looking at sacrificing Taiwan for second-order damage against China e.g. sanctions and international isolation.

 

[escobar]

Interesting from the PRC’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs research institute:

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China faces the risk that, if it uses force, the United States might extend full military support to Taiwan, in which case China would end up paying an unpredictable cost to achieve its goal. China is still the weaker party in the power dynamic and, while the economic gap between the two is great, military, technology and financial gaps are greater still

Even if it decides not to send troops to Taiwan, the United States and its allies can effectively isolate China economically, diplomatically and militarily, just as China experienced from the 1950s to the 1970s.

Far weaker in military terms, Taiwan dare not declare independence and can only maintain the status quo.

Given the limitations, reunification by force is still not an option for China, and Beijing has no choice but to bide its time. Force could be considered as an option only when China’s national power significantly exceeds that of the United States, the international community is limited in its collective motivation to push back

In the meantime, the mainland will continue to use grey-zone tactics, which are a better alternative to a military strike, and probe ways to subdue the island without fighting.

 

[Nutrient]

Interesting from the PRC’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs research institute:

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China is still the weaker party in the power dynamic and, while the economic gap between [China and US] is great

Actually, the truth is China has the larger economy when measured by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). The PPP metric is more relevant than nominal GDP because PPP indicates how much weaponry a country can deploy (if the country manufactures its own weapons).

military, technology and financial gaps are greater still

At the moment, while the US may have the stronger military overall, its forces are spread throughout the world. In East Asia, China is more powerful in all likelihood. Conceivably, the US could focus all its strength against China, but then the American Empire would collapse elsewhere. I think my assessment is true already, and will be even truer in five years.

Therefore, President Tsai should think very carefully before she incites a war between Taiwan and the mainland.

 

[gelgoog]

The Invincible Armada also had more ships than the British. It doesn't necessarily mean much of anything.

In a conflict in Taiwan, the PRC would have the home ground advantage vs the USA. Plus talks about advanced technology, well, advanced in which terms? I think Chinese Navy destroyers are more advanced than US Navy destroyers for example.

While China couldn't win a conventional war at this time if the USA concentrated all its weapons there I doubt it would even get that far without nuclear weapons being used.

 

[KenC]

And there there is leadership quality and getting people united over a common cause. China is much more superior in this critical aspect as shown by the Covid-19 response when compared to the US or the West.

 

[Laviduce]

These people are idiots. If two nuclear weapon states fought like that the result wouldn't be anyone's victory. What do they think this is, Iraq or Libya? Cities would be glassed. And not just in China.

No, the US would just acquiesce and at most make economic sanctions. Just look at what happened with Georgia and Crimea.

In the case of Georgia and Crimea Russia responded to aggression. Attacking South Ossetia was not a smart move on part of the Georgian leadership. Toppling the government of Ukraine by funding and organizing an illegal coup in Kiev was not a smart move on part of US leadership !

 

[Nutrient]

Interesting from the PRC’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs research institute:

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OK, I have actually taken the time to read the article. I have two points to make:

(1) The article is not dated. Even two years is a long time for China.

(2) Cui Fei is a member of the China Institute of International Studies and is not in the Foreign Ministry of the PRC, as you claim. The Institute is affiliated with the Foreign Ministry, but I seriously doubt that it speaks for the Ministry. Similarly, in the US, the RAND Corporation is a think tank that gets

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like the Department of Defense, the Army, and the Air Force, but I doubt that RAND speaks for the US government.

 

[Nutrient]

In a conflict in Taiwan, the PRC would have the home ground advantage vs the USA.

Indeed.

While China couldn't win a conventional war at this time if the USA concentrated all its weapons there I doubt it would even get that far without nuclear weapons being used.

If the US concentrated all its strength on China, would any muscle be left to protect Israel and the Saudis? I doubt it. As Israel, for example, is far more important to the US than Taiwan, I seriously doubt that the US would go all the way against China. Hence the Taiwanese are fooling themselves if they imagine that they can count on full protection from the US.

 

[sinophilia]

Indeed.




If the US concentrated all its strength on China, would any muscle be left to protect Israel and the Saudis? I doubt it. As Israel, for example, is far more important to the US than Taiwan, I seriously doubt that the US would go all the way against China. Hence the Taiwanese are fooling themselves if they imagine that they can count on full protection from the US.

Protect Israel and Saudi from what exactly? You think Iran is going to invade the entire Persian Gulf and Levant? I doubt they are even capable under obvious Arab/Israeli constant air superiority.

If America concentrates its forces in the Pacific I doubt anything bad happens to her allies. The worst may be Russia posturing more in Ukraine, and to America the Ukrainians losing more land to Russia is worth the exchange for eliminating China.

China should always base her assumptions on worst case scenarios, that is, the full force of the USA, Australia, NZ, Canada, UK, India, Japan, Vietnam be brought to her shores/seas/skies/land combined.