Ladakh Flash Point

[ougoah]

That Indian soldier who shove commander Qi and is holding what appears to be a sharp object has a East Asian features. Tibetan by any chance, he seemed very enthusiastic in rushing across the river and went straight for the commander.

Many of those IA deployed are ethnically Tibetan and lot's of Punjabs as well I'd imagine. There were some who were killed laying mines and unloading BMP. There were massive fanfare of funeral shown in Indian social media when those things happened.

 

[Nobonita Barua]

That article was 3 days ago while this one is new

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I think General Joshi was to embarrass to mention no patrolling finger 3. The disengagement was signed by both countries no patrolling finger 3-8.

Gray area to save face.
Their so called army post is at finger 3. If you say that "going back to army posts", you wont have to publicly say you cant patrol up to finger 4, lol

 

[Nobonita Barua]

He was from Manipur, in North East India

Here is the irony.
Its going to be very hard for you to use it in DP en masse, you know why

 

[twineedle]

Here is the irony.
Its going to be very hard for you to use it in DP en masse, you know why

?

 

[Nobonita Barua]

?

Because he is "chinese" looking. It would look like a Chinese is threatening an Indian, LOOL

 

[twineedle]

Yep my mistake. Indian MoD mentioned Gogra, hot springs and despsang as the other points not Galwan. I added it out of association. Those others are the other points of contention listed by India gov.

There was partial disengagement in Hot Springs and Gogra back in July, but it was completed. Both sides are opposite the lac but have camps pretty close to each other.

 

[ougoah]

Xi Yazhou's latest video on how to conduct a punitive campaign against India should the need arise in the future.

He submits that an all out attack to destroy India as a nation and cause it to fracture into multiple parts is within PLA's capability but extremely unlikely to actually take place.

The most likely scenario is 1962 2.0, a limited engagement where PLA attack with the goal of wiping out a corps sized unit but not to gain ground permanently. IA's level of mechanisation is far shy of PLA and they lack sufficient armour and modern artillery force so that in mobile war a corps sized unit could easily be isolated, surrounded, pined down and then destroyed by PLA. In an engagement of this size several thousand PoWs are likely.

However Xi Yazhou says an attack like this, being a modern day replay of 1962 although very degrading to the Indian elites does not actually cause much long lasting damage considering their million strong army. The result is thus likely to be same as 1962 - India would calm down for several years, maybe a decade then things would return to same old.

Instead Xi Yazhou proposes an alternative - destroy half of Indian air force and/or their nuclear capability using similar tactics as NATO did during the Kosovo War. PLAGF are to hold their position on the ground and not go on the offensive while PLAAF and PLARF are to conduct the offence from their air. A PLARF ballistic missile attack with about 100 missiles will only give warning of several minutes and paralyse all military air fields in northern India. This is then followed up for several days with PLAAF air strike and further missile attacks with the aim of destroying the majority of SU-30MKI on the ground while runway repairs are under way.

Unlike North Korea or Pakistan, India did not seriously consider attack on their nuclear facility. With almost their entire missile force concentrated at Abdul Kalam Island and lacking mobile launch capabilities an attack with just several medium range ballistic missiles with conventional warhead would almost completely neutralise India's nuclear capability. Should a handful of missiles be launched before the launch site could be destroyed they would make easy targets for HQ-19 interceptors recently demonstrated. This attack is riskier than attack on air force. It does not necessarily have to be carried out concurrently with the above.

An attack like the above, where over the course of a few hours several decades worth of air force or ballistic missile built up goes up in smoke is both psychologically degrading as well as materially painful.

Xi Yazhou also points out that India's missile defense or even missile early warning system are near as to non-existent, thus this attack would not require the latest and greatest such as DF-26 or DF-17. Instead the majority of the work could be carried out with the huge reserve of DF-11, DF-15 and DF-21 that are nearing the end of their service life.

China has no reason to engage India in war unless India invades. India will not give China a reason to unleash. When confrontations happen they were relatively restricted like the violence from June 2020.

China also has little to gain by expending material to take out the IAF and India's tiny MRBM and IRBM (their longest range) inventory even if their positions are known. The consequence of such a move even if made after an Indian invasion of Tibet, would mean political pressure on China and India becoming even more dedicated to engaging China in the future when it recovers.

 

[Kakyan]

That article was 3 days ago while this one is new

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First this is an article by a private journalist and thus has far less credibility than statement by General who commands all forces in Ladakh
But even then ow does this contradict what General said?
He himself said India will pull back to DST post on F3 and China to post east of F8 as those are only posts which existed pre April 2020.
But no patrolling zone will be F4 to F8.

 

[ougoah]

First this is an article by a private journalist and thus has far less credibility than statement by General who commands all forces in Ladakh
But even then ow does this contradict what General said?
He himself said India will pull back to DST post on F3 and China to post east of F8 as those are only posts which existed pre April 2020.
But no patrolling zone will be F4 to F8.

Has Indian MoD issued any new statements on the status of gogra hot springs depsang?

 

[Nobonita Barua]

He himself said India will pull back to DST post on F3 and China to post east of F8 as those are only posts which existed pre April 2020.
But no patrolling zone will be F4 to F8.

Desperation after getting caught red handed, too high.

Though they are yet to clarify why they lied throughout.