Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

[horse]

Feb 11, 2021

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Clearly, the biggest opponents to President Trump decrees were US corporations!

The US government was against US corporations. This is America against America.

You can say that America, with the Trump decrees, is against China.

That is correct, but that is where the story diverges.

China still has options, while the US corporation is stuck with the US government, so the US corporation may or may not start thinking for itself. Some will, some won't.

As for China, it has options, to buy the banned technology from someone else, or develop it themselves. Here, it becomes a philosophical question. Plato and Aristotle has their opinions while Gordon Chang and the American chattering class has their own opinions.

And the beat goes on.

 

[quantumlight]

Feb 11, 2021

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Clearly, the biggest opponents to President Trump decrees were US corporations!

The US government was against US corporations. This is America against America.

You can say that America, with the Trump decrees, is against China.

That is correct, but that is where the story diverges.

China still has options, while the US corporation is stuck with the US government, so the US corporation may or may not start thinking for itself. Some will, some won't.

As for China, it has options, to buy the banned technology from someone else, or develop it themselves. Here, it becomes a philosophical question. Plato and Aristotle has their opinions while Gordon Chang and the American chattering class with their perfect record has their own opinions.

And the beat goes on.

A lot of people took a too simplistic view of the situation and initially dismissed it as America is ran by CEOs whom all only care about profits and bottom lines and next couple fiscal quarters and nothing is ever going to change etc... that the US government cannot think long term...

Others have said that its too late for US to contain China and that had it wished it, would have tried 20 years ago back in 2001... instead of the whole "war on terra" nonsense it should have directed it at China and kept China down back then when the disparity was still too great...

My sense is that both are happening now... US government is wised up once it realized that China was not going to capitulate, that China wasn't able to let itself just be harvested so to speak... then that is the full on reverse 180 we are seeing... going from most favored nation trading status to central threat/enemy of the times... US gov is putting long term ahead of short term profits and forcing its companies to toe the line...

The US gov is simply now doing what everyone was saying it should have been doing 20 years ago... and since it felt like it lost so much time, its doubling down and accelerating the process...

So what the US gov is doing does make sense from its own perspective.. it knows if it does nothing that the status quo and trends all but dictate CHina will win... so its next best option is to shake things up and give itself better odds by betting ALL IN on China containment like there is no tomorrow...

 

[localizer]

A lot of people took a too simplistic view of the situation and initially dismissed it as America is ran by CEOs whom all only care about profits and bottom lines and next couple fiscal quarters and nothing is ever going to change etc... that the US government cannot think long term...

Others have said that its too late for US to contain China and that had it wished it, would have tried 20 years ago back in 2001... instead of the whole "war on terra" nonsense it should have directed it at China and kept China down back then when the disparity was still too great...

My sense is that both are happening now... US government is wised up once it realized that China was not going to capitulate, that China wasn't able to let itself just be harvested so to speak... then that is the full on reverse 180 we are seeing... going from most favored nation trading status to central threat/enemy of the times... US gov is putting long term ahead of short term profits and forcing its companies to toe the line...

The US gov is simply now doing what everyone was saying it should have been doing 20 years ago... and since it felt like it lost so much time, its doubling down and accelerating the process...

So what the US gov is doing does make sense from its own perspective.. it knows if it does nothing that the status quo and trends all but dictate CHina will win... so its next best option is to shake things up and give itself better odds by betting ALL IN on China containment like there is no tomorrow...

Likely not going to work though.

China might not be able to do the cutting edge, but it doesn't really lack any technology in particular.

The domestic and non-Western market is big enough to generate innovation.

 

[horse]

Likely not going to work though.

China might not be able to do the cutting edge, but it doesn't really lack any technology in particular.

The domestic and non-Western market is big enough to generate innovation.

Yeah, that is the most important.

The United States already lost.

The President Trump initiated trade war and tech war, that is already over and America lost on both counts. They got nothing out of it.

There is nothing they can do at this point to win. Maybe a few years down the road or a few decades later, a new struggle could emerge, but this struggle is over for all intent and purposes.

Biden can continue the ineffective and laughable Trump actions, or he can scale them back. Either way, China will keep going in it own direction, to bigger and better things.


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The Americans have a peculiar habit, that when things do not go well, or start to go sideways, their immediate reaction and eventual choices are always to maintain their original plan and stay the course. Stay the course is an important American phraseology, and I got no idea what it means.

Vietnam
Afghanistan
Iraq
Now the trade war and tech war with China

All followed the same pattern. There was a point it became obvious there was no more that can be done. Yet, they stayed the course for the bigger humiliation that came later.

No one can help them there.

 

[AndrewS]

Biden wants to create millions of clean-energy jobs. China and Europe are way ahead of him.

Battery production is key to building a green-energy workforce, but without more government support, the United States may miss out.

As the Biden administration promises to jump-start the clean-energy economy, it faces an uphill climb: The United States has fallen behind Asia and Europe in the race to produce the central technology — the high-tech batteries that power electric cars and store solar and wind energy.

China dominates battery production today, with 93 “gigafactories” that manufacture lithium-ion battery cells, vs. only four in the United States, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a prominent data provider. If current trends continue, China is projected to have 140 gigafactories by 2030, while Europe will have 17 and the United States, just 10.

That would leave the United States dependent on China and other trading partners for much of its battery supply, a risky proposition not just for the auto industry but for the military, which is planning to electrify more of its vehicles and gear. It would also mean missing out on much of the jobs boom the sector is expected to bring.

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[AssassinsMace]

Didn't Biden learn from Obama's experience with green technology? No matter how they cut it, it will always be more expensive for the US. The US can come up with a new green technology but it will always be more expensive because in a capitalist country the profit motive is an important factor then add the costs to produce it with expensive American labor thus it will be unaffordable to most. The only way the US can dominate is returning to imperialism and enslaving people.

 

[localizer]

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Paid by people like me.

 

[localizer]

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Biden said he spoke to Xi for two hours on Wednesday night and warned the senators: “If we don’t get moving, they are going to eat our lunch.”

“They’re investing billions of dollars dealing with a whole range of issues that relate to transportation, the environment and a whole range of other things. We just have to step up.”

 

[AssassinsMace]

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View attachment 68658

View attachment 68659


Paid by people like me.

It's called they want a subsidy. Like I said by its nature everything in the US costs more to do so in, ironically, a capitalist society needs a government subsidy in order to make the most simplest of chips profitable for a private entity at home to make thus passing the expense onto the taxpayer. Same with rare earths. I notice how Indian-run Quartz is running all these articles how the US is going to break China rare earths monopoly by making them themselves... and it'll cost a lot more all for the same reasons with chips, green technology, etc. If all these industries get subsidized, the more money it'll cost the US government thus taxpayers just so already rich private companies can make more money for themselves.

 

[AndrewS]

Looks like Xiaomi is now in the list of the top-10 companies in terms of technology R&D Spending
This would not have happened without the technology trade war.
And next year it's possible for Xiaomi to be spending more than Huawei, Intel, Microsoft or Apple

XIAOMI SPENT $10 BILLION ON R&D LAST YEAR – TO INCREASE BY 30-40% IN 2021

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Top R&D Spenders
1. Samsung: $14.9 billion
2. Alphabet: $14.8 billion
3. Volkswagen: $14.5 billion
4. Microsoft: $13.6 billion
5. Huawei: $12.5 billion
6. Intel: $12.1 billion
7. Apple: $10.7 billion
8. Roche: $9.8 billion
9. Johnson & Johnson: $9.7 billion
10. Daimler: $9.6 billion

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