You got two data points, take a ruler and draw a straight line and you can reach the sky. These forecasts are not worth the paper that they are printed on. As a country go through each stage of development, they reach bottlenecks. These bottlenecks must be overcome by forces that are more powerful than the existing power structure. That is the reason you need to continuously reform the system. Keep breaking up the existing powers to make room for future growth. For a weak, democratically elected government like India's, the government does not have the power to oppose the existing vested interests, much less overturn them. If you can't even command the army, you will not be opposing the power elites. Economic growth will come to a standstill due to bottlenecks which are irreconcilable with existing vested interests. Just look at the RCEP thing, it is obviously good for India in the longer term, but they decided not to go for it because it will hurt the existing vested interests. Growth, which was inflated in the last couple of years, was slowing down precisely due to this dynamic. Expect the slowdown to continue even after Covid. PPP GDP will still be large due to the population, but if they produce nothing of value, it will be meaningless. India 2050 will be better than India 2020, but nowhere near where others in its neighborhood would be by that time. Expect the distance with China to lengthen as time goes on.
Ladakh Flash Point
- Thread starter Mt1701d
- Start date
- Status
You got two data points, take a ruler and draw a straight line and you can reach the sky. These forecasts are not worth the paper that they are printed on. As a country go through each stage of development, they reach bottlenecks. These bottlenecks must be overcome by forces that are more powerful than the existing power structure. That is the reason you need to continuously reform the system. Keep breaking up the existing powers to make room for future growth. For a weak, democratically elected government like India's, the government does not have the power to oppose the existing vested interests, much less overturn them. If you can't even command the army, you will not be opposing the power elites. Economic growth will come to a standstill due to bottlenecks which are irreconcilable with existing vested interests. Just look at the RCEP thing, it is obviously good for India in the longer term, but they decided not to go for it because it will hurt the existing vested interests. Growth, which was inflated in the last couple of years, was slowing down precisely due to this dynamic. Expect the slowdown to continue even after Covid. PPP GDP will still be large due to the population, but if they produce nothing of value, it will be meaningless. India 2050 will be better than India 2020, but nowhere near where others in its neighborhood would be by that time. Expect the distance with China to lengthen as time goes on.
If Indians are such bad asses then why are they improving their barracks?
This strategy China is employing (which by the way is the highest state of war according to Sun Tzu - winning without fighting) is so simple I refuse to believe Indian government don't see it. This same strategy has been employed successfully against Japan with Diaoyutai where China have achieved actual control and JASDF aircraft are in danger of falling apart in trying to respond. It's working as we speak against Taiwan as their aircraft continue to fall out of the sky and it's also working at the border with India.
The only solution to this type of challenge we've witness is that of Vietnam where low level fighting finally ended in the 90s when they backed down from their regional power ambitions and decided instead of focus on economic development.
So there you go, answer to the question already provided, one just has to copy the correct answer.
Hi Temstar,
And its WIN WIN for China, If India follow the sample of Vietnam, China benefits with economic trade, If India pursue its present policy, China economic and military gap will increase. India is in a death trap, better swallow its pride and accept its status as number 3 in ASIA.
A large population and market is useless if
1) the populace are too poor to be of any use in terms of marketable income (that means the vast majority of indians)
2) the data itself is also useless for marketable products (meaning you can harvest the data of 1.2bln indians but what use is it to advertisers if indians won't or can't buy your products? Facebook can sell indian data to advertisers but what company is going to india if there is no $$ to be made there? Not to mention the entrenched protectionist measures undercutting your products?)
Hell, Africa as a whole is much much more profitable and useful both as a market and a destination for investment for China.
The same was said about Brazil for the last 40 years.
Brazil/India is the country of the future and always will be.
Western & Indian media and analysts like to predict the 'rise of India' and the 'collapse of China' for over 20 years. They have gotten it so wrong again and again. And they still insist on this very flawed analyst. That India is a democracy, so it must be India's God given destiny to succeed. While China is a Godless communist, so it is China's destiny to fall and be enslaved.
India had since 1947, had everything lined up to be a great economic power, except in attitude. Got technology and infrastructure left behind by the British. Got no trade embargo imposed on it except for a short period after the nuclear tests. In 1990, the Indian economy is comparable to the Chinese economy. Now the Chinese economy is 5 times the size of the Indian economy. And there is this talk about India catching up and overtaking the USA?
As of 2020, India is still among the most backward and protectionist economies in the world. So go figure how many more 30 years or 50 years India needs to become a 'superpowah' economy. Maybe when humans are colonizing Mars, we could still be having this debate of when India is gonna become 'supepowah'?
- Status