Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

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OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
I also think the US has overplayed its hand on the Xinjiang genocide fake news. I'm starting to see more and more people point that the people behind it are Adrian Zenz, ASPI and the US state dept.

I wonder how long they can keep up on this before it explodes on them like the Iraq WMD, or if Biden will stop this policy

It must also be pretty demoralizing to the separatists. America has convinced itself and its allies there is a genocide going on, but is still doing basically nothing.
 

AndrewS

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That is if they are still allowed to go there to study science and tech, trump has all banned Chinese students studying STEM, without access to STEM education i would expect enrollments to drop significantly, maybe biden will change that but the trust is broken and there is this climate of fear that you risk being arrested if you are a Chinese scientist doing phd research
I don't see many Chinese scientists doing research in the us in the future, the risk is just not worth it

Report: US visas granted to students from mainland China have plummeted 99% since April

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Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I'd say otherwise. What Pompeo did is very much hollow. Such unilateral motions are bound to never achieve the goals but project some sort of effort if anything.

Okay, I see you are going Trumpian by downplaying all negatives. Mike Pompeo did real damage to China, whether you like it or not. I went through item-by-item of the total damage Trump did and compared to the negligible damage that Obama did.

"Containing China" is a good buzzword thrown around often but what exactly is it? Physically, China can't be contained. The ideology behind it is dated (WW2 - Cold War era geographic containment). It hinges on the Heartland and Rimland theories of Geopolitics.

I agree, China cannot be contained, but it's mostly because China has massive trade with US/West, whereas Soviet Union had neglible West-USSR trade. China can be isolated, as we saw from 1949-1972.

The real containment is isolation of China using soft diplomatic outmaneuvering and cutting China off the technological networks that push global technological advances.

Mike Pompeo did try to cut China off technological networks around the globe.

1. Tech embargo on TSMC exports to Huawei.
2. Tech embargo on Google's ecosystem to Huawei.
3. Tech embargo on ASML's exports of EUVL to SMIC
4. Seeking global market ban on 5G Huawei in major developed markets
5. Proposed de-listing of Chinese IPOs on NYSE.
6. Proposed nullification of Huawei 5G patents for Verizon to plunder.
7. Tech embargo on Matlab and other engineering software for Chinese Science/Engineering Academies because of alleged PLA ties.

You pretend that Pompeo did not try to cut off China from global technological networks. He did that and much more.

US has failed to do that under Pompeo. Certainly, Pompeo can seem intimidating but what he did was pluck very low hanging fruits.

Of course, "banning" Chinese tech, and tariffs on Chinese-made goods is a low-hanging fruit, but Pompeo also did an "Asian Tour" recently to gather new allies to create an anti-China alliance, much like you suggest that Biden will also do. You make it seem like Pompeo is just as stupid as Trump, he is the former CIA director, he knows strategy better than Biden or Susan Rice does times 1000.

1.THAAD to SK was long time coming in the face of the North Korean Ballistic advances and aggression.

That's an oversimplification of the issue. It's more nuanced than that.

North Korea had ballistic aggression during Obama/Biden era as well, yet No THAAD in Korea in Obama years, in large part because South Korean were long hesitating in approving THAAD due to strong resistant from domestic public and from China/Russia.

During Obama/Biden term from 2008 thru 2016, North Korea launched 7 major ballistic missile tests, and 2 major nuclear tests. Yet no THAAD.

It was not until Trump admin basically arm-twisted South Korea into approval of THAAD by using US military protection withdrawal as a ultimatum that Korea cowered on the issue.

This proves that Obama/Biden is not using mafia-style gangster tactics like Trump admin does to get what it wants in Asia. Trump is more effective than Biden in this situation.
2. Arming Taiwan wasn't a new concept. Taiwan has been armed by US since its existence as ROC.

Trump sold a lot more weapons to Taiwan and included offensive weapons for the first time. Obama/Biden only sold defensive weapons to Taiwan.

During Obama/Biden years from 2008-2016, Taiwan arm sales included $14 billion dollars of DEFENSIVE weapons such as PAC-3 missile batteries, radar sets, javeling/stinger missiles, Phalanx CIWS suites, communication equipment. It also upgraded AESA radar for aging F-16s, but never crossed China's redline of selling brand new F-16s.

During Trump years, Taiwan arm sales totaled $17.4 billion, and included OFFENSIVE weapons for the first-time ever, such as Land-Attack missiles (SLAM-ER) and MLRS missiles (HIMARS), harpoons, and also brand-new F-16V (first new F-16 sale since 1997 under Clinton).

It's more nuanced than saying: "Oh, all Taiwan sales are same" but they never included offensive weapons until Trump/Pompeo came along.[/quote]
3.The Quad is hollow (for the time being). No specific mention of China in its agenda. It's like a transparent bikini.

Yes, at the moment, QUAD is nothing, but Pompeo/Trump wants to gather allies in Asian-Pacific region to counteract and contain China via the QUAD grouping. This proves that Pompeo has some level of strategic thinking, he isn't picking "low-hanging fruits" because QUAD alliance requires high-level strategic thinking.
4.HK was a failure. Xinjiang is too.

Hong Kong never devolved into riots/violence during Obama/Biden years. During the 2014 Umbrella movement and OccupyCentral, they were largely peaceful protests.

During Trump-era, you have violence, arson, riots in Hong Kong, courting foreign powers for sanctions, elimination of HK special status, sanctions against Hong Kong.

The difference between Obama/Biden and Trump on Hong Kong is stark. You can't dismiss it as "oh, fail". like they are equivalent.

Per Xinjiang, Obama/Biden largely ignored Xinjiang, whereas Xinjiang's ETIM is not de-listed as a terrorist group by Pompeo and friends, and Xinjiang human rights sanction bill passed Congress. The contrast is huge.

5. Trade war was a failure.

Obama/Biden never did a trade war with China, and Biden wants to eliminate the tariffs on Chinese-made goods.

Of course, you can argue that TPP-style passive containment is more deadly to China in long-term compared to uncivilized brutish tariff war.... and I would agree with you on that.

6. The Wassenar Agreement dictates that ASML cannot sell its most advanced tech to non participant country.

Wassenar isn't a legally binding treaty, it's wholly up to the discretion of Netherland gov't to give a special license to export EUVL to China.
That's why US Gov't applied pressure on Netherland gov't to prevent giving special export license. Wassenar agreement is mainly aimed at avoiding sensitive technology from getting into terrorist hands, so Netherlands can give special export licenses to China if she wished to.

7. Huawei isn't dead. Neither is ZTE.

China isn't dead, I'm not dead. So ergo, Biden is worse than Trump for China and me.

Biden wouldn't even dare to ban Chinese tech companies, so by default, Biden is superior to Trump for China.

You can argue that Biden might attempt a TPP-style passive containment that is more deadly in long-term against China than Trump's savage/uncivlized tariff war... that is probably true... but I argue that time is on China's side, the mega-trends of China's growth outweighs any single individual President's willpower. Add OBOR/BRI into the mix, with China's growing economy, no US President can contain China, no matter how many allies they try to recruit.
 
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gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
North Korean missiles before the Hwasong-14/15 either did not have enough range to hit the USA or were simply not practical as weapons delivery systems (took too long to assemble, fuel, and launch). When that changed was when THAAD went in. It isn't there to protect South Korea.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
North Korean missiles before the Hwasong-14/15 either did not have enough range to hit the USA or were simply not practical as weapons delivery systems (took too long to assemble, fuel, and launch). When that changed was when THAAD went in. It isn't there to protect South Korea.

US already deployed the powerful AN/TPY-2 radar (the primary radar of THAAD) in northern Japan in 2006 and Kyushu, Japan in 2014, which cover NK, parts of China, and Russia.

So US can track NK ICBMs heading over Japan towards the US with AN/TPY-2 since 2006.

Also, THAAD stands for "Terminal High Altitude Area Defense", it's literally says TERMINAL. Meaning it's there to protect US troops in Southern Korea, not to protect the continental United States. There are regional missile interceptors in Alaska and California for that mission. THAAD isn't to protect the US mainland.
 

daifo

Captain
Registered Member
That is if they are still allowed to go there to study science and tech, trump has all banned Chinese students studying STEM, without access to STEM education i would expect enrollments to drop significantly, maybe biden will change that but the trust is broken and there is this climate of fear that you risk being arrested if you are a Chinese scientist doing phd research
I don't see many Chinese scientists doing research in the us in the future, the risk is just not worth it

That is false. That was a suggestion by racist senator tom kkkotton. However, chinese student in advance research should be squeaky clean, not lie on the visa applications, and any ccp gov official should avoid contacting them in a way where communication can be intercepted.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
In case any of you guys think Biden is going to be good and soft for China should watch this video.

As most of us old heads always said. The US parties may fight like cats and dogs within America. But there all agreed 100% with regards to China.

 
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