Chinese Economics Thread

[gelgoog]

Unfortunately a lot of politicians have no clue about network security.
If you listen to the telcos they say it is no problem to use Huawei equipment.
Italy might be the latest in a case of legislators deciding policy.
Then again I expected no less from the country which shut down its nuclear power program to burn fossil fuels.

Western governments are following tech advice from the Trump team! We know how good their technical expertise is in all matters.
The stable genius defeated COVID-19 in the USA after all. He has the "super-duper" missile too.

I am still waiting for the great reveal of the Chinese spy chip that Bloomberg reported was in Chinese made server motherboards.
Every actual expert knows this is bunk. Claimed as bunk the day the article(s) came out.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Nothing to outgrow when your market keep shrinking. First losing western countries and now other developing countries.
There's only so much on your own domestic market

Huawei's revenues are climbing every year and it retains its edge in 5g contracts over both Nokia and Ericsson. China's own market is the biggest guarantee in the world and so much, in this case, is very, very much. China also has more STEM talent and state power to support Huawei if needed so that even with a smaller market, it's research perseveres and prevails. That's why the West fears Chinese subsidies so much.

Countries are being forced to join US side.

As I said, but you failed to understand, in such a short time, Huawei turned American allies into American hostages. The next thing that a hostage becomes is an escapee.

 

[TD739]

Doesn't really matter China has the engineering talents to make great product eventually as US used it's overwhelming military and dollar / economic sanction power to deny China the market needed for tech as US forced other countries to give up . It will long time before other countries can escape. Nothing on the immediate horizon.
Huawei oversea revenue will drop alot by second half next year.
US zeroed in 5g. Other common commodity stuffs, it doesn't care. Other countries can trade with China

 

[ansy1968]

What I meant is countries are hating China because they are jealous of China recovery. Plus most of them believed China originated the vrius. It's the one to blame. The more China does better the more people jealous and hate.
There will be post covid 19 fallout and push back against China..

This is not about me personally.

Hi TD739,

Yup, it's the same thing but in national scale, China can't force nation to like them, but deep inside there is a grudging admiration.

There will be post covid 19 fallout and push back against China..

There is always a fallout, as the suffering is immense, there is a lot of blaming to go around. Its how you handle things that will mark your character and so far China had done a good job.

 

[TD739]

People still don't get it. Just because you have the engineering talents to make things work eventually doesn't mean you will have others market. It will be denied.

This is the economic order established after WWiI.

You want to change the order, you want to sell things you not supposed to sell under the current order , you have to change things geopolitically. More STEM students won't change a thing.

 

[gelgoog]

Doesn't really matter China has the engineering talents to make great product eventually as US used it's overwhelming military and dollar / economic sanction power to deny China the market needed for tech as US forced other countries to give up . It will long time before other countries can escape. Nothing on the immediate horizon.
Huawei oversea revenue will drop alot by second half next year.
US zeroed in 5g. Other common commodity stuffs, it doesn't care. Other countries can trade with China

How naive. The USA wants to be the sole hegemonic power. Chinese 5g is just one instance of their repeated thuggish behavior.
This administration plays like something out of the Sopranos really.

The geopolitical order established after WWII, or whatever, means squat.
Already lots of countries have ties to the Chinese yuan with bilateral currency agreements.
China is the world's largest economy. The dollar supremacy will end sooner or later.

Already you see countries dissenting with the US with regards to Iran, of all nations.
This would have been unthinkable a couple decades ago. Not even their lapdogs in the UK supported them.

With regards to Huawei bans you have to read the fine print. In the UK, for example, it is banned with the ban starting a couple years from now. Probably after Trump ends his second term in case he is reelected.

 

[sndef888]

Personally I just ignore these naysayers. China's economic fundamentals are solid, its labour force and education world class. It will continue to grow no matter how the US tries to make it stumble.

The current aggressive actions by the US are a sign of weakness instead of strength. They know that semiconductors are the last weapon the US has left to make countries listen to them, and China is fast catching up even in this sector, with the billions invested already.

Imagine, once China cracks semiconductors, what will stop China (or any other country) from violating American sanctions and ignoring American pressure? America will have nothing to offer that China doesn't already provide.

 

[TD739]

Personally I just ignore these naysayers. China's economic fundamentals are solid, its labour force and education world class. It will continue to grow no matter how the US tries to make it stumble.

The current aggressive actions by the US are a sign of weakness instead of strength. They know that semiconductors are the last weapon the US has left to make countries listen to them, and China is fast catching up even in this sector, with the billions invested already.

Imagine, once China cracks semiconductors, what will stop China (or any other country) from violating American sanctions and ignoring American pressure? America will have nothing to offer that China doesn't already provide.

US economic sanction is no joke. Countries won't able to access dollar institutions. Why they risk that by buying China tech goods?

 

[manqiangrexue]

Doesn't really matter China has the engineering talents to make great product eventually as US used it's overwhelming military and dollar / economic sanction power to deny China the market needed for tech as US forced other countries to give up.

If it didn't matter, then China could never have developed as it did today. Chinese tech is new to the global scene; it grew from Chinese domestic power and beat many global competitors. Right now, it is difficult for Western countries to accept it, but they will see that to oppose this force is to condemn yourself to the losing side.

America's military doesn't dare fight anybody with a proper military let alone nuclear weapons. It's quite frankly stupid and off topic to even mention. America use the dollar to sanction China? LOL That would cripple the dollar as it is now no longer useable to trade with the largest trading country in the world.

It will long time before other countries can escape. Nothing on the immediate horizon.

Huawei doesn't need anything on the immediate horizon. Growth in China and Huawei's developing markets are enough as far as one can see because Huawei achieved its 5G tech dominance on far less revenue than it has now and every indication says that with Chinese tech united due to American mistakes, Huawei will continue to dominate.

Huawei oversea revenue will drop alot by second half next year.

What's a lot? What about total revenue? What's the effect? What if you're wrong?

US zeroed in 5g. Other common commodity stuffs, it doesn't care. Other countries can trade with China

That's the sad thing. It zeroed in on 5G and can't even put up a challenger in the field. It's a cheerleader for Nokia and Ericsson. China is the largest trade country in the world, with the largest PPP GDP, so it can afford to fund and subsidize research.

People still don't get it. Just because you have the engineering talents to make things work eventually doesn't mean you will have others market. It will be denied.

This is the economic order established after WWiI.

You want to change the order, you have to change things geopolitically.

What the hell does this even mean? You want to start WWIII?

 

[Temstar]

Why do we need 5G? What's the big deal? It's just faster wireless internet right?

Let me ask this same question but from a different time frame reference:

Why do we need train tracks? What's the big deal? It's just faster horses that eat coal instead of grass right?

5G is infrastructure, by having it you provide the necessary ground work for new industries that we can't yet imagine. Judging from the speed of China's development in the last 20 years and all the stupendous amount of infrastructure China has laid down (75% of HSR is in China for one) I think it's pretty clear there's a strong link between infrastructure and growth.

Huawei has absolute advantage in 5G technology, if other countries were rational they would be begging Huawei to build 5G for them. But alas if for political reasons they don't want to use Huawei and instead turn to other providers that result in delays/over budget/under performance then that's on them. It's going to come back and hurt them big time once 4th Industrial Revolution is under way.

We Chinese understand this sort of thinking well, back in the day our Empress Dowager didn't want to build railway tracks across China because she thought it was bad for feng shui and because of that (and many other such short sighted thinking) China fell behind while other countries pulled ahead in previous industrial revolutions. Now they are making the same mistake as we once did.

Banning Huawei's 5G hurts Huawei somewhat yes, but it also hurts that country much more so in the long run.