Chinese Economics Thread

hashtagpls

hashtagpls

Senior Member
Registered Member
So to clarify, does this mean dual circulation will
  1. Boost China's consumer class, thereby making China the largest consumer market in the world, especially after COVID-19 has decimated the large western markets of the world.
  2. Insulate Chinese tech companies from the tech war and trade war since because of 1), foreign nations wanting to withhold core components to Chinese firms eg semiconductors, EUV lithography machines etc are going to lose access (perhaps permanently) to the largest market in the world.
?
 
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Deleted member 15887

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hashtagpls said:
So to clarify, does this mean dual circulation will
  1. Boost China's consumer class, thereby making China the largest consumer market in the world, especially after COVID-19 has decimated the large western markets of the world.
  2. Insulate Chinese tech companies from the tech war and trade war since because of 1), foreign nations wanting to withhold core components to Chinese firms eg semiconductors, EUV lithography machines etc are going to lose access (perhaps permanently) to the largest market in the world.
?
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To be honest, western consumer markets have been decimated since 2008. This is mainly why China's growth rates pre-2008 are less than their growth rates post-2008; can't rely on export-oriented growth if your main export markets in the West have collapsed. Thats why much of this decade has been China rebalancing is growth strategy: 1) more internal consumption, and 2) create more export markets in the developing world in Asia and Africa. Rebalancing has taken time, and will inevitably cause a slowdown in growth in the short-term, but its far more sustainable in the long-run. For instance, China's export-share-of-GDP of 33% in 2008 has declined to 18% today, while its export markets have diversified beyond the US and Western Europe to other nations in Asia, Africa, LATAM, and Europe. I can forsee China's export share of GDP declining down to 10-12% by 2030, and single-digits by 2035, as it's growth continues to be powered by internal investment and consumptionn.
Imagine this, hypothetically: China continued its pre-2008 strategy to this day. It would have been far more impacted by the global economic downturn than it is today.
 
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TD739

Junior Member
Registered Member
Here's the main question. As more and more foreign western countries banning Huawei should China retaliate against them. That's alot of countries to retaliate.
 
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TD739

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Current dual circulation is different than previously policies. It's not just boost of domestic consumption.

It's Xi's vision of going back to the root, going back to Mao's vision of country side surrounding of cities.
It's different than deng's open up and building up megacities.
On the contrary, the policy not only encourage people from country side going back from cities but also encourage city people going there. Like the former going up to mountain and going down to the field.
Build up of country side township economy. Have 3 or 4 products from each townships. Building up based on ecology.
That's why Xi's main focus is on poverty alleviation and build up of country side.

Stable country side economy will be the bedrock to support the cities amidst current global anti China atmosphere.

5 passes including high speed 5g and high-speed rail connecting country sides represent the investment the central government is investing in country side. High-tech farming

It's all about going back to country side.
Same times cities are consolidate into greater wide area or megaregion.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Temstar said:
No need, it's their loss. Being a few years behind on the 4th industrial revolution will hurt them enough.
Click to expand...

Not really. They can and will soon have replacements and find ways around any actual Chinese held advantage. China was nearly a century late to the industrial revolution and it didn't even take that long after starting an industrial revolution in China to get things back on track. A few years is nothing.
 
Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
ougoah said:
Not really. They can and will soon have replacements and find ways around any actual Chinese held advantage. China was nearly a century late to the industrial revolution and it didn't even take that long after starting an industrial revolution in China to get things back on track. A few years is nothing.
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No, a few years is a big difference in the information age. Imagine previously in the 3rd Industrial Revolution with introduction of computers and internet, being a few years earlier to come out with say Amazon gives your company an absolutely unassailable position. Similarly being the first to productionise say driverless cars would also give Chinese companies overwhelming advantage, and Beijing is already running driverless taxi.

In case people are not familiar with the terms, below is a list of each industrial revolution where society's productivity increased massively and their driving technologies:

1st Industrial Revolution: steam engine
2nd Industrial Revolution: electrification
3rd Industrial Revolution: internet
4th Industrial Revolution: automation
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Hi TD739,

A very good summary, may I add my pieces.

It's all about going back to country side.

Its part of Poverty alleviation program and sustainability. Its a continuing process to make sure that the beneficiary not only enjoy economic benefits, but social service as well. Its a way to spread the wealth down to the lowest sector of society.
 
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TD739

Junior Member
Registered Member
Temstar said:
No, a few years is a big difference in the information age. Imagine previously in the 3rd Industrial Revolution with introduction of computers and internet, being a few years earlier to come out with say Amazon gives your company an absolutely unassailable position. Similarly being the first to productionise say driverless cars would also give Chinese companies overwhelming advantage, and Beijing is already running driverless taxi.

In case people are not familiar with the terms, below is a list of each industrial revolution where society's productivity increased massively and their driving technologies:

1st Industrial Revolution: steam engine
2nd Industrial Revolution: electrification
3rd Industrial Revolution: internet
4th Industrial Revolution: automation
Click to expand...
Semiconductor invention is the most influential and most dufficult one in human history.
 
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