Ladakh Flash Point

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Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Exactly. It's information warfare being waged on China and this is one of them. Every time on YouTube when I watch news on China like CGTN, they would then recommend me those garbage anti-China channels like: NDTV, Zooming In with Simone Gao, The Epoch Times, etc. Then on this year, WION started getting more appearances when Covid-19 started rampaging in China. When the Ladakh crisis started, TFT then started featuring more prominently. The real problem is YouTube. They have now become part of the US propaganda machinery.
In some ways it's actually good for China. It's like Gordon Chang everywhere - fooling everyone but the Chinese themselves.
 

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
The Storm Shadow isn't a Tomahawk; it is capable of terrain-hugging flight like the Tomahawk but is arguably much stealthier. The French "Tomahawk" is actually the MdCN which supposedly shares quite a bit of technology with the SCALP/Storm Shadow.

The point is, the IAF has the ability to hit PLA and PLAAF facilities that in turn could severely hamper PLA/AF operations in a potential conflict. The PLAAF can deploy CJ-10Ks if it wishes but you don't defend against cruise missiles with your own cruise missiles.
You do know that the MdCN is still underdevelopment? I said France had no history of launching long-ranged ALCM from land and naval assets like the Tomahawk. So the SCALP/Storm Shadow is their 'Tomahawk' today.

What's not to get about cruise missiles defending against enemy cruise missiles? Its called deterrence. Its one of the factors that stopped Turkey from going to war with Russia over their differences on Syria. It is clearly working today with India, as they are still not going to war with China despite all the casualties suffered on their side so far.

So let's say that deterrence doesn't work and India launches an Alpha strike on PLA/PLAAF assets with what little Storm Shadows they have. What's stopping the PLAAF and PLAGF from launching their own larger stocks of CJ-10 missiles to hit targets deeper into India than any Storm Shadow could ever reach into China?

Sorry, but this is a seriously shortsighted statement. Where are reports that the S-125 took out Storm Shadows, and if they're valid (huge doubt here), how can we be certain that this isn't due to some technical mishap with the ALCM? And even if a few Storm Shadows were indeed lost to legacy radars and air defenses, how is it appropriate to assume that most of these missiles would suffer the same fate?

I'm sold. I believe you now. Storm Shadows are indeed the best missiles that money can ever buy. No SCALPs/Stom Shadows was ever shot down in combat, ever. I'll take your word for it. If it works on decimating the Syrian Airforce with their Russian advisers helping out, it'll have no problem against Chinese paper tigers: PLAAF and PLA. What CJ-10? That's a Chinese Tomahawk knock-off. That crap can never beat French proven quality. But what about those Chinese air defence? No worries, they too are Made-In-China crap, they won't even put a scratch on the Storm Shadows. With the Storm Shadows, the mighty Indian air force will put the PLAAF and PLA out of combat before they can even say 'Wow! I want those too!'

You should go for the role of Vice President in the MBDA Sales force. They'll pay you handsomely. No need to waste time arguing with hobby defence speculators like me.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Lol the Storm Shadow/ SCALP isn't even close to being in the same league as modernised Tomahawk, CJ-10 series, or Russian Klubs and Kalibrs.

The SCALP is strictly air launched only and max out range at around 500km which isn't even a third of CJ-10 ground launched version's range. It's comparing a tractor with a bus. Very different tools. India doesn't have MDCN and in fact only French navy operates it.

PLA and PLAAF may not have a SCALP equivalent in terms of a stealthy and smart air launched cruise missile but China does have GJ-11 and hundreds of high altitude UAVs that can deliver thousands of ordinance on target. How many SCALP does India currently have? A few dozen at best and France will need to deliver more super expensive SCALPs. PLA has tremendous artillery capabilities that deliver better results for cheaper. All it needs is air superiority to protect artillery from being destroyed by IAF and to prevent IAF from stopping Chinese UAVs although even if each MRAAM in IAF's entire inventory hits a Chinese UAV, I'm pretty sure China has more UAVs than India has medium range air to air missiles and we're already assuming PLAAF will do nothing. Positioned in the region, maybe not as much but it's not like the entire IAF can be sent to confront PLAAF and PLA either. Face it, PLA alone can probably defeat IA and IAF once PLA crater up IAF fields and PLA's IAD prevent IAF long enough for PLA to sweep through. IA itself is no match and Chinese artillery can turn IA into dust.

India would need excellent SEAD+DEAD aircraft (ideally stealth) AND many heavy payload strike aircrafts to defeat the PLA. It hasn't got a single unit of either. Jaguars are garbage and the MKI may be useful as a heavy payload strike but they still have the IAD problem.

I doubt China will be using CJ-10s. There are HY series, HN series, SY series, FL series, YJ series, and C series cruise missiles in Chinese inventory. Modernised Silkworms are still capable of detection evasion and smart approaches. Patriot missiles and western military tech failed to detect and stop Iranian cruise missiles and Chinese ones that ended up in the hands of Iranian and Lebanese groups in the past. Indian air defence is close to non-existent and you need not just a properly integrate air defence to have half a chance at intercepting anything but a competent one as well. Has India put any air defence assets near the border? No. Some token Akash that was there already can't even reach the altitudes most fighters and drones will be flying at. The radars will also struggle to pick up low flying cruise missiles. If they're snaking around valleys, there is no way to intercept them. Not even1980s Chinese cruise missiles.
 
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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
They don't need to; the Storm Shadows provide sufficient range so as to permit IAF Rafales to operate within Indian airspace while retaining deep-strike capabilities.

what is the CEP of your wonder weapon if PLA jams all satellite navigation signals (minus Beidou of course) in China proper? How accurate is the inertial guidance if the missiles fly in terrain hugging mode?
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
what is the CEP of your wonder weapon if PLA jams all satellite navigation signals (minus Beidou of course) in China proper? How accurate is the inertial guidance if the missiles fly in terrain hugging mode?

It'll be using American GPS constellations which the Americans will no doubt grant access. China can't be knocking out US satellites and can't realistically blind or destroy most of them even if it chooses to do so. So guidance won't be an issue. There's also inertial and laser guidance backups.

The issue for India wrt to SCALP is that the missiles are just supplied in small numbers. If the Indians have thousands or even hundreds, then they may last for longer than a day of operations. At the moment, they really can't afford to buy them in numbers. It'll be thousands more dying from starvation per year just from buying more weapons. Pitifully hopeless, even evil government. They talk a lot of rubbish about China but the moral standing of even the CCP is far superior in actuality. The woeful state of things in India is unsurpassed in human history. The worst conditions in Africa back in the 1980s can barely compare with India now. The brahmins and elites in India don't care and won't admit to how things are working in their favour.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
The signal can be jammed.

True it may be doable but certainly not something to be counted on. The issue is India shows through its actions that it recognises the PLA can strike them pretty deep and take out anything the PLA desires. For one thing, India doesn't have IAD or even something resembling decent air defence individual units. They don't have any CIWS and point defences in place for high value targets. Akash is a slow SAM with short range and derived from 1960s SAMs with slightly more capable electronics. Hardly comparable to layered HQ-19/26/29, HQ-9, HQ-22, HQ-16, HQ-7+HQ-17, then LD-2000. We don't even need to compare numbers because when it comes to missiles it's literally like 10:1 if not greater.

Now consider the variety and volume of offensive weapons the PLA can throw at targets up to and even beyond 300Km of the border. India knows they can't intercept many if any of them and they have much, much less to throw. Brahmos and SCALP are the most formidable they have and the Brahmos at least isn't impressive by 2010 standards already. SCALP is much deadlier but every capability improvement has their share of costs. India doesn't have many SCALPs to use. They'll be using them carefully and they've only got 5 Rafales in total to shoot them with. PLAAF has hundreds of J-10Cs already and to balance those 5 Rafales, they can send in 5 J-10C. The old J-11A and J-11Bs can counter the IAF well enough.

Any wonder why PLA is confident enough to position so much artillery and heavy equipment so close to the newly established forward borders while the Indians only put men close by? PLA has confidence they can intercept most Indian smart attacks while India has full confidence they will lose whatever they put within close reach.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
So this brings me to my main point. I understand that it is easy for members on SDF to develop tunnel vision in such echo chambers as SDF (not that there's anything wrong with that), but people are missing the big perspective. I'm getting the feeling that there is a undercurrent assumption among SDF members that the PLAAF and PLA would steamroll their Indian counterparts if the Ladakh standoff ever goes hot, but I have my doubts, which I will explain.

IAF's biggest and perhaps most prominent aerial assets in the region are the Rafale, Su-30MKI, and their new Phalcon AWACS purchase. We know that the Rafale and Su-30MKIs have been deployed to Ambala AFB and other FOBs near the Indo-Chinese border. We also know that the IAF now operates an unknown number of Storm Shadow ALCMs (with 500+ km range) as part of their Rafale package and that their Sukhois are integrated with the air-launched BrahMos (400 km range). The IAF essentially has the hardware to conduct deep strikes against both PLAAF bases and mainland cities/infrastructure while remaining relatively impervious to Chinese anti-air and anti-missile defenses. Sure, neither platform might stand a chance against the J-20, but neither would require much of a hop in order to release their standoff munitions.

The PLAAF, on the other hand, doesn't have anywhere near India's air-to-ground capabilities deployed near the Ladakh region. Their J-11s are not capable of A2G combat while their JH-7/H-6K have no air-to-air capability required to exploit their full payload potential. J-10Cs are not integrated with long-range ALCMs while the J-16s have barely begun deployment in the region. The J-20s - if used at all - will certainly not undertake air-to-surface missions against IAF airfields.

The PLAAF would be forced to be on constant alert for incoming IAF munitions & aircraft while dealing with unstoppable strikes by way of terrain-hugging cruise missiles from Rafales, leaving little to no available assets to conduct air support operations against IA ground forces.

Couple that with their Phalcon AWACs, S-400 missiles, and large contingency of legacy airframes like the Mirage and MiG-29s, and the PLAAF would be opening a can of worms if it attempts anything.

Looking at the Air to Ground capabilities of the Chinese Air Force and Indian Air Force is the wrong comparison.

Given that you're looking at powered standoff land-attack missiles, why on earth would you want to use expensive aircraft when trucks are a way better option? Delhi is only 500km from Chinese territory.

And remember that the Indian Air Force barely has any Rafales or powered standoff land-attack missiles.

Hotan doesn't have to deal with your imaginary hordes of incoming missiles.

Then contrast that with the thousands of Chinese missiles which could be available, whether delivered by aircraft or trucks.
 
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