Ladakh Flash Point

[siegecrossbow]

I have heard third hand that a lot of foreign business people who went to India were not able to make any money. Indian business do not honor their agreements and makes the environment hostile for these business to succeed. Walmart was an example. Of course there are exceptions. foreign companies have successfully assembled and sell cars, cell phones etc which India needs. There was a well publicized event a few years back just before the common wealth games hosted by India. The corruption was so bad that they found living quarters were not ready for the athletes and bridges have collapsed in the arena a week before the games were to start. The PM at the time (I think it was Singh) had to find some extra money to pay for some urgent repairs. Foreign contractors were hired to do the repairs. Later on, the contractors bill for their work and the government did not have any money to pay. This is pretty incredible that a government as big as India would do something like that. Compared that to every other Western government or governments in East Asia, you just don't even imagine that the central government would not honor their contracts.

This is why I don’t think manufacturing will shift to India any time soon. Foreign companies would rather build factories in Bangladesh and Vietnam.

 

[j17wang]

From Egypt? Minimal chances of that as Egypt is very much in America’s pocket first and foremost.

However, it is an open secret that PAF pilots fly most of the UAE’s combat aircraft, and as such, I think it’s safe to bet that PAF pilots would have flown in and against Rafales enough by now to fully understand its capabilities and how it stacks up against many other top of the line 4th gen and legacy aircraft. Knowledge that I am sure Pakistan would be happy to share with China fully.

However, I think that while the Rafale is obviously no pushover, it is still thoroughly outclassed by the J20, and maybe even the J10C in BVR when we factor in the J10’s bigger radome and China’s much more comprehensible experience with AESA radars.

But the point being that the Rafale is in the same class as the J10C. Not only do PLAAF in service J20s vastly outnumber IAF Rafales (never mind J10B/Cs), PLAAF pilots have been flying J20s for years operationally, while not all IAF pilots slated to fly Rafales might even have had their first flights in one yet.

Only Indians think Rafales changes anything in terms of the balance of air power between India and China.

I perfectly understand that Rafale isn't in the same class as J20. Still if a shooting starts, more intelligence on a formidable platform is always better. I didn't think the UAE would be a good source, I thought something like Qatar might be better to get intel, as UAE isn't an actual operator of the platform.

 

[plawolf]

If India was capable of being a manufacturing powerhouse, it would have been so already. They are not, yet are doing nothing to make themselves more attractive to foreign investment.

As such it’s the textbook example of insanity to keep doing the same thing yet expect completely different outcomes.

At this rate the moon will be a manufacturing powerhouse before India.

 

[plawolf]

I perfectly understand that Rafale isn't in the same class as J20. Still if a shooting starts, more intelligence on a formidable platform is always better. I didn't think the UAE would be a good source, I thought something like Qatar might be better to get intel, as UAE isn't an actual operator of the platform.

Yes, it’s Qatar that flies the Rafale but they also make expensive use of PAF pilots. Bit of a brain fart but the point is still the same.

 

[silentlurker]

If there is a long simmering border conflict with China, since they are now enemies, both sides will do what they can to disrupt the other short of an invasion. The Indians can play the Tibet card, but it is pretty limited. On the other hand, the Chinese have a lot of cards to play to disrupt things inside India. That is because India has a lot of enemies among its own citizens. If done will, this will lead to a lot of security issues and damages to the limited infrastructure that India needs to maintain its fragile service sector.

Are there a lot of internal enemies in India? There is Kashimir but I would count that as roughly equivalent in value to Tibet from India's perspective. There is a lot of corruption in India but this is mostly driven by greed and not seperatist/political feelings. Can you give some examples?

 

[plawolf]

Are there a lot of internal enemies in India? There is Kashimir but I would count that as roughly equivalent in value to Tibet from India's perspective. There is a lot of corruption in India but this is mostly driven by greed and not seperatist/political feelings. Can you give some examples?

Maoist are probably the most well known. They have scored some notable military victories against the Indian army.

 

[KenC]

Maoist are probably the most well known. They have scored some notable military victories against the Indian army.

There are also the seperatist armies in Northeast states ( Assam, Bodoland, Manipur, Nagaland etc)

Manipur- PLA video.

If they received substantial aids and support from China, they could truly destabilize North East India.

 

[Xizor]

Are there a lot of internal enemies in India? There is Kashimir but I would count that as roughly equivalent in value to Tibet from India's perspective. There is a lot of corruption in India but this is mostly driven by greed and not seperatist/political feelings. Can you give some examples?

A lot actually. Lot more than most countries. But even if that wasn't the case and even if India was a racially and culturally homogeneous place, it is easy to achieve objectives using the one thing that makes any person selfish - MONEY.

Money talks and China has enough of that. The reverse could happen too. The real obstacle is Language barrier. China may use Pakistan to penetrate India and bribe.

While India can only depend on Taiwan and US to do the opposite.

 

[reservior dogs]

There are also the seperatist armies in Northeast states ( Assam, Bodoland, Manipur, Nagaland etc)

Manipur- PLA video.

If they received substantial aids and support from China, they could truly destabilize North East India.

There are also other Muslims throughout India. A lot of animosity between Hindu and Muslim and the government is openly hostile to the Muslims which are its own citizens. Recently, they passed a law allowing other groups who have been living inside India to gain citizenship. Muslims were pointedly excluded from this law. In a country with so many diverse groups, if the government is openly hostile to one, there will be some of that group which will be radicalized.

 

[Xizor]

There are also other Muslims throughout India. A lot of animosity between Hindu and Muslim and the government is openly hostile to the Muslims. Recently, they passed a law allowing other groups who have been living inside India to gain citizenship. Muslims were pointedly excluded from this law. In a country with so many diverse groups, if the government is openly hostile to one, there will be some of that group which will be radicalized.

But they aren't qualitatively valuable. Qualitatively valuable assets are minorities which hold significant sway within the Indian social political and economic pyramid. Minorities that doesn't hold such sway are therefore only a distraction or nuisance.

Take the case of China -
Tibetans and Uyghurs are qualitatively inferior ( by the definition above). Hong Kong separatists/secessionists are qualitatively more valuable. Same for pro-dem forces within Mainland China.

One has to identify the forces at play within the Economic and Sociopolitical Temple of India and then structure the penetration. Caste System is one thing. Regionalism is another. Partisanship is yet another one.