Ladakh Flash Point

[Figaro]

I'm going to highlight the bolded part because that's really the only part that's relevant,or rather the part which is most illustrative of the underpinning peacetime deployment strategy.

In so far as being "invulnerable" to a surprise air attack is concerned, there are few nations that border each other which are "immune". A limited scope, high intensity cross border strike with limited objectives is not difficult to do and the nature of contemporary offensive weapons and the relative permeability of modern IADS + CAP + AEW&C means it is quite feasible to conduct one or even multiple probing attacks that manages to catch a tactically unprepared enemy off guard.


The nature of the regional geography and higher priority strategic directions means the PLA will never deploy the majority of its combat aviation force to the western strategic direction during peacetime, but that they retain the potential to surge aircraft and munitions into the theater during times of tension or conflict.

In so far as the aircraft capable of strike are concerned, I'm slightly confused as to your weighting of respective IAF and PLAAF A2G strike capabilities.
While the IAF's Rafales are able to carry Storm Shadows, and they are a capable powered stand off strike capability (though of course rather limited in quantity), the rest of the IAF lacks powered stand off strike munitions at all (unless you count the handful of Su-30MKIs with Brahmos integration, and sure, for the purposes of discussion why not include them).

OTOH, the PLA has some, what 100+ H-6Ks each carrying six KD-20 ALCMs with stand off range that we can even conservatively put at over 1500km, and then there are all of the PLA's JH-7As, J-16s and J-10B/Cs are all KD-88 compatible as well? This isn't to say that it wouldn't be nice if all of the PLA's tactical fighters were compatible with a 500km+ range stand off missile as well, but the 200km range offered by KD-88 and the sheer variety of platforms it is integrated on makes it a very flexible weapon as well.

And of course this is ignoring ground based launch systems (whether it be GLCM or perhaps more messily, SRBMs/IRBMs, so for the purposes of discussion perhaps ignore these for now).

Even in terms of AEW&C, the PLA could afford to deploy just a quarter of its total fleet of KJ-2000s+KJ-200s+KJ-500s and it would outmatch the entire IAF's current AEW&C fleet, and we are not even considering the use of other force multipliers here like ELINT/SIGINT or stand off jamming platforms.

In terms of tactical combat air, I don't think anyone would dismiss the capability of AESA equipped Rafales with Meteors, but again it's a matter of scale.
Having 36 AESA equipped fighter jets or order with a modern high end BVRAAM in service is neat in TYOOL 2020, but the PLA has 300ish AESA equipped J-16s and J-10Cs that are PL-15 compatible (leaving aside J-20s for sporting reasons). And all of this doesn't consider the role that J-11Bs and J-10As would play of course, which field the PL-12 which are less capable than PL-15 or Meteor, but still very much in the "superior-to-R-77-category" that forms the bulk of the IAF's BVRAAM inventory, and of course the effectiveness of which is multiplied further by the depth and scale of your AEW&C fleet.


So if your argument is that the IAF has the potential to carry out some sort of surprise first strike, I'm not in disagreement with that, in so much as that carrying out cross border surprise first strikes is not exactly difficult in this day and age.

But in so far as the force on force balance of A2A, A2G, and airborne force multipliers go -- unless your hypothetical first strike is able to render the bulk of the WTC's air fields inoperable for a significant period of time (and frankly they'd probably have to hit CTC as well) -- the resultant PLA combat air surge in terms of the quality of capabilities they bring to the table but also the quantity of capabilities they can field, would be capable of a significant riposte outstripping the scope of what the IAF's own rather limited strike capabilities are able to offer.

Doesn't the KD-20A have a range of 3000 kilometers?

Some specifications of KD-20A (estimated): length 8.9m, weight 1.7t, cruising speed Mach 0.48-0.77, cruising altitude 40-100m, range 3,000km.

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So Hotan only needs 16 SCALPs to be taken out, but Indian airfields need at least 220 ballistic missiles each I guess

Sinosoldier has a tendency to make extremely provocative statements without basis. It is quite unfortunate because he is one of the most senior members in this forum.

 

[Gatekeeper]

Complete clickbait video. There is no evidence that the Indians even captured any Chinese camp ... and even if they did, it would have been so minor/irrelevant (likely abandoned by the PLA a long time ago) that the Indians have not even released any images of the camp in question.

According to the Indians, 5 Rafales are enough to fend off the entire combined strength of the PLAAF and PAF. From what I've seen, the Indians have promoted the Rafales with efforts magnitudes beyond what the French did. You would think Rafale was some kind of god/diety if you didn't know what it is because it is basically worshipped in India at this point. At this point, it should belong in some golden shrine than an airbase.

I think the way the Indians put the Raffale (A fine aircraft I may add) on such a high pedestal, it even make the French embarrassed. Lol

 

[j17wang]

What make you think that the Rafales can past the gauntlet of Chinese IAD,Assortment of ground based radar,KQ 500, J10, J11B Fighter Jet, HQ9B etc? . It is not like a walk in the park

What is the possibility that china has already received some information about Rafale's systems from Egypt? China has long-standing economic and military relationships with Egypt (especially in aerospace), and wouldn't hurt to have some technical experts over there to "learn" a few things.

 

[Blitzo]

Doesn't the KD-20A have a range of 3000 kilometers?

Some specifications of KD-20A (estimated): length 8.9m, weight 1.7t, cruising speed Mach 0.48-0.77, cruising altitude 40-100m, range 3,000km.

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For the purposes of discussion, I gave it a more conservative number.

 

[Xizor]

What is the possibility that china has already received some information about Rafale's systems from Egypt? China has long-standing economic and military relationships with Egypt (especially in aerospace), and wouldn't hurt to have some technical experts over there to "learn" a few things.

if it is the same chinese which are attacked for "stealing" F-35 secrets, then asking egypt is just a nuisance.
Hack the French servers. Bribe the French.

I mean...it's not going to be as hard as what China is claimed to be doing over there in North America.

Rafale this. Rafale that.
Every Dollar India spends on a foreign weapon is a gain for China in the long term. The country with local military industrial complex wins. ALWAYS.

 

[SpicySichuan]

For the purposes of discussion, I gave it a more conservative number.

I achieve the range of 3,000 km, I think weight of the warhead would have to be reduced to 200kg and lower. Or if they develop a more efficient turbofan engine.

 

[vincent]

Are we to assume that the conflict will escalate to a point where both countries are itching to disable the other's strategic assets, knowing fully well that the US and India could reciprocate and equally incapacitate Chinese forces?

Huh, jamming within Chinese territory is perfectly feasible and legal

 

[plawolf]

What is the possibility that china has already received some information about Rafale's systems from Egypt? China has long-standing economic and military relationships with Egypt (especially in aerospace), and wouldn't hurt to have some technical experts over there to "learn" a few things.

From Egypt? Minimal chances of that as Egypt is very much in America’s pocket first and foremost.

However, it is an open secret that PAF pilots fly most of the UAE’s combat aircraft, and as such, I think it’s safe to bet that PAF pilots would have flown in and against Rafales enough by now to fully understand its capabilities and how it stacks up against many other top of the line 4th gen and legacy aircraft. Knowledge that I am sure Pakistan would be happy to share with China fully.

However, I think that while the Rafale is obviously no pushover, it is still thoroughly outclassed by the J20, and maybe even the J10C in BVR when we factor in the J10’s bigger radome and China’s much more comprehensible experience with AESA radars.

But the point being that the Rafale is in the same class as the J10C. Not only do PLAAF in service J20s vastly outnumber IAF Rafales (never mind J10B/Cs), PLAAF pilots have been flying J20s for years operationally, while not all IAF pilots slated to fly Rafales might even have had their first flights in one yet.

Only Indians think Rafales changes anything in terms of the balance of air power between India and China.

 

[reservior dogs]

I don't see why foreign investment in India will fall unless the conflict actually becomes war. In that case India definitely be worse off since they rely on so much foreign procurement and you can bet companies will be lining up to gouge the government with emergency prices.

In state of just hightened tensions I don't see how the Indian economy will be unable to support an extra 100000 troops in Lakdah

If there is a long simmering border conflict with China, since they are now enemies, both sides will do what they can to disrupt the other short of an invasion. The Indians can play the Tibet card, but it is pretty limited. On the other hand, the Chinese have a lot of cards to play to disrupt things inside India. That is because India has a lot of enemies among its own citizens. If done will, this will lead to a lot of security issues and damages to the limited infrastructure that India needs to maintain its fragile service sector.

 

[reservior dogs]

What is this ban of no profit by foriegn company?

I have heard third hand that a lot of foreign business people who went to India were not able to make any money. Indian business do not honor their agreements and makes the environment hostile for these business to succeed. Walmart was an example. Of course there are exceptions. foreign companies have successfully assembled and sell cars, cell phones etc which India needs. There was a well publicized event a few years back just before the common wealth games hosted by India. The corruption was so bad that they found living quarters were not ready for the athletes and bridges have collapsed in the arena a week before the games were to start. The PM at the time (I think it was Singh) had to find some extra money to pay for some urgent repairs. Foreign contractors were hired to do the repairs. Later on, the contractors bill for their work and the government did not have any money to pay. This is pretty incredible that a government as big as India would do something like that. Compared that to every other Western government or governments in East Asia, you just don't even imagine that the central government would not honor their contracts.