News on China's scientific and technological development.

[ansy1968]

From JSCh (PAKISTAN DEFENSE FORUM)

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Eric Chen, DIGITIMES Research, Taipei
Tuesday 11 August 2020

China with its 14th Five-year Plan (2021-2025) will assist its domestic foundries in the development of advanced 7nm and FD-SOI fabrication process technologies, according to Digitimes Research.

China continues to proceed with its semiconductor self-sufficiency strategy, with plans to also help its domestic foundries further expand their existing production capacities during the five-year period.

uring China's 13th Five-year Plan, the country's foundry sector has advanced its manufacturing process technology to 14nm and will be capable of fabricating chips using a newer 12nm process technology this year. The transition to more-advanced 7nm process, as well as specialty technology namely FD-SOI, will be the next target during China's next five-year plan.

SMIC, China's most advanced and largest foundry, will be developing its 7nm, sub-7nm and EUV-based process technologies over the next five years, in line with the goal set forth by China's 14th Five-year Plan,

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believes.

 

[WTAN]

Hi WTAN,

After rereading this thread and your explanation,its all become clear to me that the 5nm Huawei project is tied to using the SMEE 22/28 DUV LITHO , not on the projected SMEE EUV. As you stated, the new NIKON DUV is capable of producing 5nm and both the new SMEE DUV is comparable. And now I might say that the 2 year Huawei 5nm dateline may not be a crazy idea at all.

I really need to give you thanks for the opportunity to think things through with your input.

I believe Huawei will still get Chips from SMIC as they are still the best FAB in China. Huawei is still starting off in the FAB Business and it may take some time to get to 7nm and 5nm.

Even SMIC now realises that they may never get the ASML EUV machine and that they will have to rely more on SMEE and other local Semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Also as the US sanctions more Chinese companies, FABS with foreign equipment is becoming useless. SMIC is now building a 28nm FAB with local equipment in Beijing.

It looks like SMIC, HuaHong and Huawei will have to eventually make their future 7nm & 5nm Chips using SMEE Litho equipment. It may cost more than EUV and be less efficient but they have no real alternative till the locally made EUV Litho machine is ready. However the cost of the DUV Machine is lower, cost of production in China is lower and mass production of Chips may reduce the overall cost.

 

[emblem21]

I believe Huawei will still get Chips from SMIC as they are still the best FAB in China. Huawei is still starting off in the FAB Business and it may take some time to get to 7nm and 5nm.

Even SMIC now realises that they may never get the ASML EUV machine and that they will have to rely more on SMEE and other local Semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Also as the US sanctions more Chinese companies, FABS with foreign equipment is becoming useless. SMIC is now building a 28nm FAB with local equipment in Beijing.

It looks like SMIC, HuaHong and Huawei will have to eventually make their future 7nm & 5nm Chips using SMEE Litho equipment. It may cost more than EUV and be less efficient but they have no real alternative till the locally made EUV Litho machine is ready. However the cost of the DUV Machine is lower, cost of production in China is lower and mass production of Chips may reduce the overall cost.

Well, if the USA has tried to prevent China from acquiring top end chips, then they will eventually failure since no matter what they do, they cannot deny China's advance. In the end, those companies that side with the USA will eventually lose out since the USA doesn't have the innovative magic anymore

 

[gadgetcool5]

China has invested a lot of money subsidizing the FAB business and the IC industry in general but it has not yielded satisfactorily positive results. From what I am reading there are some reasons for this

- Simply throwing money at the problem without knowing what you want. The Chinese government has given money to companies falsely promising to be able to replace Western technology but could not do it. Government officials don't understand technology/industry.

- Innovation doesn't happen in a directed way. If you put everything into a few big enterprises or projects, it's hard to succeed. Scientific breakthroughs tend to come from unexpected directions & the best products are collaborations of thousands of suppliers. What's needed is to foster an environment of intellectual freedom where scientists are free to experiment.

- What's being tried is unprecedented. The Japanese and South Korean electronics industries grew up with the help and guidance of the West. Even today, the best way for Chinese companies to learn is joint ventures with established players and their decades of know-how. It's virtually impossible to build something new up from scratch.

In my view China needs to take a step back and look at the bigger picture of what is driving Western superiority in technology. It is not just about catching up to the West in technology; it is not even about surpassing the West. Rather the question is what are the conditions that would allow China to sustain long term permanent state of superiority over the West technologically? Before you say this goal is too ambitious: If China is not asking this question then China will lose. It must ask this question and put this as the goal.

It is not about throwing money at a few big enterprises like SMIC.

Rather the West's advantage is that it has long established an ecosystem that rewards original scientific thinking in basic research, and pairs this up with innovation to bring scientific breakthroughs to market. (1) It has a collaboration of Universities, government laboratories, corporate laboratories, (2) a well established system of scientific publication, immigration rules and (3) a culture that allows people of various ethnic backgrounds to come in and contribute. (4) It has strong IP protections and market rules, and a well developed financial system. (5) Its companies go out and seek the world market and do not just rely on the domestic market. (6) The 'West' is an international project not confined only to the US, but also includes the EU, Japan, South Korea, etc.

Thus the most important aspect of China's long term scientific and technological development are not government subsidies, tax breaks or investments but institutional reforms and the expansion of China's international scientific/innovation/market ecosystem. The values of openness and being willing to work with those who are different than you is very important.

 

[latenlazy]

China has invested a lot of money subsidizing the FAB business and the IC industry in general but it has not yielded satisfactorily positive results. From what I am reading there are some reasons for this

- Simply throwing money at the problem without knowing what you want. The Chinese government has given money to companies falsely promising to be able to replace Western technology but could not do it. Government officials don't understand technology/industry.

- Innovation doesn't happen in a directed way. If you put everything into a few big enterprises or projects, it's hard to succeed. Scientific breakthroughs tend to come from unexpected directions & the best products are collaborations of thousands of suppliers. What's needed is to foster an environment of intellectual freedom where scientists are free to experiment.

- What's being tried is unprecedented. The Japanese and South Korean electronics industries grew up with the help and guidance of the West. Even today, the best way for Chinese companies to learn is joint ventures with established players and their decades of know-how. It's virtually impossible to build something new up from scratch.

In my view China needs to take a step back and look at the bigger picture of what is driving Western superiority in technology. It is not just about catching up to the West in technology; it is not even about surpassing the West. Rather the question is what are the conditions that would allow China to sustain long term permanent state of superiority over the West technologically? Before you say this goal is too ambitious: If China is not asking this question then China will lose. It must ask this question and put this as the goal.

It is not about throwing money at a few big enterprises like SMIC.

Rather the West's advantage is that it has long established an ecosystem that rewards original scientific thinking in basic research, and pairs this up with innovation to bring scientific breakthroughs to market. (1) It has a collaboration of Universities, government laboratories, corporate laboratories, (2) a well established system of scientific publication, immigration rules and (3) a culture that allows people of various ethnic backgrounds to come in and contribute. (4) It has strong IP protections and market rules, and a well developed financial system. (5) Its companies go out and seek the world market and do not just rely on the domestic market. (6) The 'West' is an international project not confined only to the US, but also includes the EU, Japan, South Korea, etc.

Thus the most important aspect of China's long term scientific and technological development are not government subsidies, tax breaks or investments but institutional reforms and the expansion of China's international scientific/innovation/market ecosystem. The values of openness and being willing to work with those who are different than you is very important.

Nope. The problem is not that the government doesn’t know what it’s doing with regards to building expertise and knowledge. It’s that no matter what the government does you need to capture marketshare to make your capital cost and process iterations sustainable. China actually generates a lot of semiconductor talent these days. They just go to work elsewhere in the areas Chinese firms haven’t been able to capture markets in. The last step for China to realize an indigenous industry is not fundamentally a technological competence problem. It’s a market position problem. If Chinese semiconductor firms can capture some markets to drive their product development they will naturally close the rest of the gap on their own. Without that they will continuously depend on government funding while the talent they develop chooses to go work elsewhere. This last hurdle is pretty easy to overcome for industries that have long product cycles, but the semiconductors industry has product cycles that are 1-2 years short, so the target is always moving ahead of where you’ve built up your capabilities. Getting sustainable market share will grant firms the resources to do the intensive sprint necessary to catch that fast cycle. Without the level of capital that markets can provide, government support can only keep you from falling behind rather than catch the lead.

 

[manqiangrexue]

China has invested a lot of money subsidizing the FAB business and the IC industry in general but it has not yielded satisfactorily positive results. From what I am reading there are some reasons for this

- Simply throwing money at the problem without knowing what you want. The Chinese government has given money to companies falsely promising to be able to replace Western technology but could not do it. Government officials don't understand technology/industry.

- Innovation doesn't happen in a directed way. If you put everything into a few big enterprises or projects, it's hard to succeed. Scientific breakthroughs tend to come from unexpected directions & the best products are collaborations of thousands of suppliers. What's needed is to foster an environment of intellectual freedom where scientists are free to experiment.

- What's being tried is unprecedented. The Japanese and South Korean electronics industries grew up with the help and guidance of the West. Even today, the best way for Chinese companies to learn is joint ventures with established players and their decades of know-how. It's virtually impossible to build something new up from scratch.

In my view China needs to take a step back and look at the bigger picture of what is driving Western superiority in technology. It is not just about catching up to the West in technology; it is not even about surpassing the West. Rather the question is what are the conditions that would allow China to sustain long term permanent state of superiority over the West technologically? Before you say this goal is too ambitious: If China is not asking this question then China will lose. It must ask this question and put this as the goal.

It is not about throwing money at a few big enterprises like SMIC.

Rather the West's advantage is that it has long established an ecosystem that rewards original scientific thinking in basic research, and pairs this up with innovation to bring scientific breakthroughs to market. (1) It has a collaboration of Universities, government laboratories, corporate laboratories, (2) a well established system of scientific publication, immigration rules and (3) a culture that allows people of various ethnic backgrounds to come in and contribute. (4) It has strong IP protections and market rules, and a well developed financial system. (5) Its companies go out and seek the world market and do not just rely on the domestic market. (6) The 'West' is an international project not confined only to the US, but also includes the EU, Japan, South Korea, etc.

Thus the most important aspect of China's long term scientific and technological development are not government subsidies, tax breaks or investments but institutional reforms and the expansion of China's international scientific/innovation/market ecosystem. The values of openness and being willing to work with those who are different than you is very important.

Well, the West had a very long time in an economically and politically-favorable environment to gradually build the tech superiority they came to possess. China needs to cram that into a very short time. It's not that directed innovation doesn't work; it clearly does as China overcomes every bottleneck/ban that the US tries to encumber it with. It's that previously, China's semiconductor/lithography fields did not have the proper drive and urgency to move forward. Innovation ordered and funded by the Chinese Premier didn't seem to carry the weight they needed just like a boy isn't necessarily spurred by his parents' advice to labor over his studies. They believed that America and the West were reliable providers because democracy and free market prevented anything too egregious from happening. They weighed that against the commitment, resources, and risk that it would take to try to catch up even in a Chinese market dominated by foreign chips and their calculus was that they'd rather make huge amounts of cheaper, easier chips for profit then put on a dog/pony show with the research funds given to them while pocketing the lion's share. Now, Trump has shown them that not only is the US a total lunatic of a country, it can infect others, meaning that no source other than a Chinese source is truly secure. Now, a Chinese market that used to spurn Chinese chips is open to their business as their teething issues have become minor compared to the risk of embracing foreign chips that can be cut off. Now that boy has been thrown into a real life scenario where he must fend for himself; now he feels the real dangers that surround him and is committed to the fight for survival. He has been in that situation at times before, and each time, emerged stronger and wiser, body smeared with the blood of those who tried to kill him. That is the main difference between China's semiconductor/lithography fields now and the pre-Trump sluggishness/failures.

 

[Weaasel]

SOMEONE PLEASE HELP ON UNDERSTANDING PATENTS

"Here access to cutting edge tools that remain under the control of the US government because they contain US-origin IP (intellectual property) will be the limiting factor for China," Triolo said. "No amount of government investment can overcome restrictions on tools like extreme ultraviolet lithography, for example, which is currently being denied for China's leading foundry SMIC."

What is quoted here is the final paragraph of an article from CNBC that expresses doubts that the Chinese government's financial assistance and policies such as tax breaks towards IC chip manufacturing equipment makers and IC chip makers will get the desired results of rapidly improving the capability and quality of Chinese entities in producing the most state of the art equipment and chips.

There is something that I am unsure about parents and I hope that someone can clarify things for me. Say if an entity, such as a Chinese firm or a firm anywhere in the world, independently produces a product such as a lithography machine, or one which can apply photoresists to wafers or dope wafers as well as any others can, or produce photomasks that match the capability of those already in use that are the best in the world, can companies which already possess patents for such type products sue this other company for patents infringement or otherwise legally prevent this other company from selling its product because of great similarity of performance?

 

[manqiangrexue]

SOMEONE PLEASE HELP ON UNDERSTANDING PATENTS

"Here access to cutting edge tools that remain under the control of the US government because they contain US-origin IP (intellectual property) will be the limiting factor for China," Triolo said. "No amount of government investment can overcome restrictions on tools like extreme ultraviolet lithography, for example, which is currently being denied for China's leading foundry SMIC."

What is quoted here is the final paragraph of an article from CNBC that expresses doubts that the Chinese government's financial assistance and policies such as tax breaks towards IC chip manufacturing equipment makers and IC chip makers will get the desired results of rapidly improving the capability and quality of Chinese entities in producing the most state of the art equipment and chips.

There is something that I am unsure about parents and I hope that someone can clarify things for me. Say if an entity, such as a Chinese firm or a firm anywhere in the world, independently produces a product such as a lithography machine, or one which can apply photoresists to wafers or dope wafers as well as any others can, or produce photomasks that match the capability of those already in use that are the best in the world, can companies which already possess patents for such type products sue this other company for patents infringement or otherwise legally prevent this other company from selling its product because of great similarity of performance?

If they sell it abroad and people open it to find it very similar to a Western trademarked design, there will be a legal battle as to whether it is close enough to merit IP infringement. Obviously if they came up with their own solutions, it won't be an issue. Another way it won't be an issue is if these lithographs were shipped only to select Chinese foundries with facilities under high security at all times. If no hostile party can get its grubby fingers on a Chinese lithograph or its data/blueprints, they cannot make any accusations of IP infringement in court.

Or at least that's how I reason it to be. I'm not an IP lawyer.

 

[vincent]

SOMEONE PLEASE HELP ON UNDERSTANDING PATENTS

"Here access to cutting edge tools that remain under the control of the US government because they contain US-origin IP (intellectual property) will be the limiting factor for China," Triolo said. "No amount of government investment can overcome restrictions on tools like extreme ultraviolet lithography, for example, which is currently being denied for China's leading foundry SMIC."

What is quoted here is the final paragraph of an article from CNBC that expresses doubts that the Chinese government's financial assistance and policies such as tax breaks towards IC chip manufacturing equipment makers and IC chip makers will get the desired results of rapidly improving the capability and quality of Chinese entities in producing the most state of the art equipment and chips.

There is something that I am unsure about parents and I hope that someone can clarify things for me. Say if an entity, such as a Chinese firm or a firm anywhere in the world, independently produces a product such as a lithography machine, or one which can apply photoresists to wafers or dope wafers as well as any others can, or produce photomasks that match the capability of those already in use that are the best in the world, can companies which already possess patents for such type products sue this other company for patents infringement or otherwise legally prevent this other company from selling its product because of great similarity of performance?

Not a lawyer, but how can US companies get compensated if SMEE has no assets in the States?

 

[Weaasel]

Well, the West had a very long time in an economically and politically-favorable environment to gradually build the tech superiority they came to possess. China needs to cram that into a very short time. It's not that directed innovation doesn't work; it clearly does as China overcomes every bottleneck/ban that the US tries to encumber it with. It's that previously, China's semiconductor/lithography fields did not have the proper drive and urgency to move forward. Innovation ordered and funded by the Chinese Premier didn't seem to carry the weight they needed just like a boy isn't necessarily spurred by his parents' advice to labor over his studies. They believed that America and the West were reliable providers because democracy and free market prevented anything too egregious from happening. They weighed that against the commitment, resources, and risk that it would take to try to catch up even in a Chinese market dominated by foreign chips and their calculus was that they'd rather make huge amounts of cheaper, easier chips for profit then put on a dog/pony show with the research funds given to them while pocketing the lion's share. Now, Trump has shown them that not only is the US a total lunatic of a country, it can infect others, meaning that no source other than a Chinese source is truly secure. Now, a Chinese market that used to spurn Chinese chips is open to their business as their teething issues have become minor compared to the risk of embracing foreign chips that can be cut off. Now that boy has been thrown into a real life scenario where he must fend for himself; now he feels the real dangers that surround him and is committed to the fight for survival. He has been in that situation at times before, and each time, emerged stronger and wiser, body smeared with the blood of those who tried to kill him. That is the main difference between China's semiconductor/lithography fields now and the pre-Trump sluggishness/failures.

They naively believed that just because they were the biggest market and that they had money, and selling IC chips, IC manufacturing equipment, and other items of high tech were in the interests of and very profitable to US and other Western and US Alliance firms, that those firms had the political leverage over the US government to ensure that the US government would not act in any other way that rational economic actor would, since the US elite espouse free market capitalism so much.

That was extremely foolish of them. Rational free market capitalism is actually not the way the world works. The Trump Administration's Trade War and determination to ensure that China is prevented from having whatever access to high tech items from across the world has completely disabused Chinese companies and those Chinese elites inclined towards free market capitalism of their way of thinking and the bets that they make. I am sure that there are those in China who for the sake of profit that they make making sales of goods that contain imported high tech components who would want to capitulate to US demands and go as far as stopping all research and development into areas of tech that the US does not want Chinese entities, state financed or not, to develop, which is basically all high tech in areas related to AI, sophisticated alloy metallurgy, single crystal aerojet turbine blades, semiconductors and semiconductor chip manufacturing equipment, and computer operating systems and applications.

China, now facing a US launched global embargo on tech, with the US bullying other countries to follow it, now has no choice but to completely possess all supply chains and develop all tech and any product domestically that is worth making. There should not be a single piece that is not manufactured to be manufactured that should not be made in China. Once China demonstrates the capability to make the whole plethora of high tech goods of comparable or superior quality to those found in the West, South Korea, and Japan, or any US allied country, it will be MUCH less vulnerable to the blackmail that is is currently being subjected to.