Chinese Economics Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

So one question - what effect will the new American "dual military" regulations have on China's development?

I'm not sure to what extent companies are dependent on these American exports, nor the extent to which they can be replaced.

They talk about several things:

Civil aviation parts and components - I guess this is an attack on COMAC? COMAC is so weak it can be killed a bunch of ways (e.g. jet engines, American FAA refusing to give approval). It's also doing a great job of killing itself without any outside help lol.

Semiconductor production equipment - Prohibiting export of Applied Materials, KLA-Tencor, and Lam Research? I think their equipment is actually more replaceable than the Americans think, especially with Japanese suppliers.

Certain integrated circuits, telecommunications equipment - I think this is an attack on ZTE, specifically things like Xilinx's field programmable gate arrays. I'm not sure how how much affect it has on Huawei.

Radar - An attack on COMAC? Not sure how many other Chinese companies really depend on American radar.

High-end computers - ???

Civil Aviation They just renew the license on selling the jet engine So nope with GE now on life support due to coronavirus any ban would just killed them. Most airline cancel or defer their order to Boeing and Airbus where GE is going to sell their jet engine?

Semiconducto and production equipment not so much as China now try to become self sufficient Aside from the cutting edge of 7nm Lithograph China can live using domestic equipment

High end computer and radar is not so much a problem since they already banned the chips forcing China to do substitution

Here is recent article on NAURA the semiconductor equipment manufacturer a rival to Applied Material via xyz

China fab toolmaker posts 30% profit increase in 2019 Staff reporter, Shanghai; Willis Ke, DIGITIMES Tuesday 28 April 2020 0 Toggle Dropdown China-based semiconductor equipment maker Naura Technology Group saw its net profits for both the whole 2019 and first-quarter 2020 climb by over 30% on year, buoyed mainly by a ramp-up in orders from China-based foundries, according to the firm's newly releases financial statements. The company's revenues surged 22.10% on year to CNY 4.058 billion in 2019, with net profits expanding 32.24% on year to CNY309 million. It's first-quarter 2020 revenues and net earnings picked up 32.49% and 33.01% from a year earlier reaching CNY938 million and CNY26.48 million, respectively. A further breakdown showed that Naura's revenues from semiconductor and electronics equipment soared 26.58% on year to CNY3.19 billion in 2019 and those from precision electronics components increased 7.60% to CNY847 million, with the growth momentum mainly driven by demand from major Chinese semiconductor players. In January 2020, Naura won the bid for 12 process machines from Yangtze Memory Technology including three sets of CuBSPVD equipment, breaking Applied Materials' dominance in such a segment, according to industry sources. So far this year, Nauaru has enjoyed an influx of orders from many other Chinese semiconductor firms including Hua Hong Semiconductor, CanSemi Technology, GTA Semiconductor, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), SiEn Integrated Circuits and SMIC, who have significantly increased purchases from homegrown equipment makers in line with the government's efforts to build self-sufficiency capability, the sources said. Naura is set to roll out 14nm process equipment soon as its products are pending validations by potential clients. The company has also readied plans to develop more-advanced equipment for 7nm and 5nm process nodes, the sources said.

 

[manqiangrexue]

The entire concept of trying to stump China by technological choke is stupid and it's more stupid because there are many Chinese students in the US and the West for them to witness first hand how Chinese STEM majors always perform at the top of their classes. It's like saying, "Let's get the largest cohort in the world consisting of the smartest, most result-oriented STEM graduates together in a group, and tell them that they can't be lazy anymore. Push their backs up against the wall and tell them they need to develop these things cus their lives depend on it." On top of that, China was given plenty of forewarning with the slow ramp-up and escalation of sanctions. Basically, it's so well set-up for China to succeed, it's almost like a designed training course rather than a serious attempt to derail. Only the toughest pressure can forge the hardest diamonds. These people will be forced to create world-beating technology. Had this happened when China was technologically very backward and too poor to train many STEM students, things would have been much tougher but in the modern day, this is set up perfectly for China to succeed because China already has the momentum of technological development in full swing, a vastly powerful economy for support, and an excellent educational base with more STEM graduates than the entire developed world combined to work with.

 

[Aniah]

The entire concept of trying to stump China by technological choke is stupid and it's more stupid because there are many Chinese students in the US and the West for them to witness first hand how Chinese STEM majors always perform at the top of their classes. It's like saying, "Let's get the largest cohort in the world consisting of the smartest, most result-oriented STEM graduates together in a group, and tell them that they can't be lazy anymore. Push their backs up against the wall and tell them they need to develop these things cus their lives depend on it." What do you think will happen? Only the toughest pressure can forge the hardest diamonds. These people will create world-beating technology. This is almost like a movie where a tough old guru imposes survival training to turn a bunch of kids with hidden talent into an elite force. Had this happened when China was technologically very backward and too poor to train many STEM students, things would have been much tougher but in the modern day, this is set up perfectly for China to succeed because China already has the momentum of technological development in full swing, a vastly powerful economy for support, and an excellent educational base with more STEM graduates than the entire developed world combined to work with.

Perfectly well explained. Any act of trying to push down the Chinese in any field will only accelerate their progress.

 

[supercat]

China says its manufacturing activity expanded slightly in April, but missed expectations

• The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index came in at 50.8 for the month of April, as compared to 52.0 in March.
• Analysts polled by Reuters had expected official manufacturing PMI to come in at 51.0 in April.
• PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below that level signal contraction.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[LesAdieux]

So one question - what effect will the new American "dual military" regulations have on China's development?

I'm not sure to what extent companies are dependent on these American exports, nor the extent to which they can be replaced.

They talk about several things:

Civil aviation parts and components - I guess this is an attack on COMAC? COMAC is so weak it can be killed a bunch of ways (e.g. jet engines, American FAA refusing to give approval). It's also doing a great job of killing itself without any outside help lol.

Semiconductor production equipment - Prohibiting export of Applied Materials, KLA-Tencor, and Lam Research? I think their equipment is actually more replaceable than the Americans think, especially with Japanese suppliers.

Certain integrated circuits, telecommunications equipment - I think this is an attack on ZTE, specifically things like Xilinx's field programmable gate arrays. I'm not sure how how much affect it has on Huawei.

Radar - An attack on COMAC? Not sure how many other Chinese companies really depend on American radar.

High-end computers - ???

this is Wilbur Ross's own version of regulation, don't take it too seriously, he has been ignored by the white house, pentagon and other depts before. Ross, a rabid China basher has an inflated ego, he inflated his own net worth by 400% to make himself a fake billionaire.

 

[Jura The idiot]

Apr 22, 2020

didn't know

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

before reading Coronavirus: economy in China’s Covid-19 epicentre Hubei shrank 40 per cent in first quarter of 2020

• Gross domestic product (GDP) in Hubei, the seventh largest provincial economy in China in 2019, lost 39.2 per cent in the first quarter
• The first quarter contraction was the largest since the 1938 war with Japan that devastated the economies of Hubei and its neighbouring provinces

the link is

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

followup

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Published: 2020/4/30 18:49:17

 

[Rettam Stacf]

China will start trial payment in its new digital currency (called e-RMB) in four major cities from next week, becoming the first country in the world to launch a sovereign digital currency. The four cities are Shenzhen, Suzhou, Chengdu, as well as Xiong'an, a new area south of Beijing.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This follows the steps such as currency swaps, CIPS, and Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange etc. to reduce reliance on the US $ for transaction use.

 

[PiSigma]

@ZeEa5KPul @manqiangrexue
Middle income is a moving target since it should really be calculated based on PPP and standard of living. Manqiangrexue hit it on the head about the steak dinner. In Japan, getting any meat is expensive. When I was there almost 10 years a ago, a chicken breast will cost close to $8, you can buy a box for that money in Canada. Their Wagyu beef is promoted and expensive, so people think it's the best. It's not even close, Brazilian beef is much better but dirt cheap, beacuse of high production.

You have countries like japan with 45k GDP/cap but standard of living is hard to calculate. It will depend if u value a large house (won't find in Japan). Or do you value open spaces, won't find that either.

For the USA, their GDP/cap is meaningless since 50% of the population don't have $500 to tub together. While Bezos, bill gates and Warren Buffett have as much wealth as the bottom 50%.

Also im a believer in traditional economics, which means something must be produced to create value. This means mining, farming, manufacturing and a service like medicine and technology to improve. US's economy is mostly FIRE, which boost things like GDP, but doesn't mean anything. The Qing economy was much bigger than Japan's in 1895, but it means nothing, since it's tied to real estate (farming). While japan was to manufacturing, so can trash Qing in a fight.

 

[vincent]

I always wonder how much GDP is generated from financial “products” such as options, futures, and other derivatives

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

I always wonder how much GDP is generated from financial “products” such as options, futures, and other derivatives

A lot. The real question is, should it count?