PiSigma
"the engineer"
Depend on country. In China it's probably 1/4 or less. US and UK probably 2/3 or more
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
I don't think derivatives are allowed in China
Globalisation means all nations must cooperate for mutual benefits and not for any leader to run down any country for political self-interest. Trump‘s blame game for Covid-19 Is unfortunate & making the situation untenable. Desperate leaders lose their rationality and cause self-inflicting harm & those of others. The world is watching & people are not gullible.
Old post on the middle income trap.
The empirical evidence for China getting past the middle-income trap and becoming a wealthy hi-tech society already exists. That is the conclusion if you sort R&D spending by % of GDP below, and continue to apply the long-term trend of increasing R&D spending.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
May day holiday provide a test to show that they can relax the restriction without igniting the resurgence of new cases Of course the yuan amount of the holiday is down compare to previous year .Considering that many tourist venue is limited to 30% capacity Seem like the economy is on the mend and can see better day ahead. But most important thing is it give them confidence to loosen up the restriction even further
Holiday economy rebounds
By Wang Cong Source:Global Times Published: 2020/5/5 21:58:42
Travelers made 115m trips, spent $6.74b during May Day holiday
China on Tuesday marked a milestone in its efforts to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, as over 100 million tourists flocked to popular attraction sites across the country during the just-concluded May Day holiday and spent billions of dollars, all while averting a much-feared resurgence of COVID-19 cases.
While the final tally on trips and consumption during the five-day holiday remains low compared to that of last year due largely to remaining anti-epidemic efforts and lingering fear of the virus, it offered a much-needed boost of confidence to the Chinese economy and a sound path for recovery going forward that strikes a balance between necessary efforts to prevent a resurgence of the virus and a gradual opening of more sectors, Chinese analysts noted on Tuesday.
Economic activities are expected to further pick up pace in the weeks and months ahead as progress during the holiday helped allay concerns among many businesses and consumers and encourage gradually relaxing restrictions in certain areas, they said.
Tourists wait for their trains at Hangzhou East Railway Station on Tuesday as the 5-day May Day holiday ends. Photo: VCG
Long-waited rebound
During the five-day holiday, Chinese travelers made a total 115 million trips, down 41 percent compared to last year, according to data from the and Tourism on Tuesday. Total tourism spending reached 47.6 billion yuan ($6.74 billion), down nearly $10 billion from last year, the ministry said.
Although the figures are significantly down from previous years, they are exceeding expectations, analysts noted, pointing out that restrictions are still in place in many areas across the country aimed at preventing a second wave of the epidemic and so some inevitably steered clear of travel.
"It was a big test for both economic recovery and epidemic prevention and it is fair to say that we passed the test," Jiang Yiyi, professor of the leisure sports and tourism school of Beijing Sport University, told the Global Times on Tuesday.
It is worth noting that even as , there were no reported new clusters of infections as of noon on Tuesday. During the holiday, China reported seven new confirmed cases, six imported.
This year marks the first time in 12 years that China extended the three-day May Day holiday to five days, a measure designed specifically to boost consumption and economic growth.
May Day holiday tested China's ability to recover amid the risks of a resurgence, analysts noted.
Beyond the data, the enthusiasm of Chinese travelers was palpable on the streets of Beijing over the holidays and in countless online pictures of popular attractions across the country, including Wuhan, Central China's Hubei Province, hit hardest by the epidemic.
In a clear sign of a nationwide recovery, Hubei opened up 22 main tourist sites for the May Day holiday, receiving a total of about 7.36 million trips and 2.45 billion yuan in tourism revenue, official data showed on Tuesday. But the number of trips at most sites was down as much as 80 percent from last year.
In Beijing, officials also lowered the public emergency response level and lifted certain travel restrictions ahead of the holiday to boost travel.
The capital city received 4.63 million trips, about 55 percent of last year's figure, and raised revenue of 4.18 billion yuan, about 36 percent of last year, official data showed.
"These are extraordinary figures, considering that there are still a lot of restrictions in place to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus," Cao Heping, a professor of economics at Peking University in Beijing, told the Global Times on Tuesday.
and Beijing, strict anti-epidemic measures remained in place across a country on high alert for a resurgence of the epidemic.
Tourism ministry officials noted that 30 percent of tourism sites across the country did not open and many limited visitors to about 30 percent of normal capacity.
"Both demand and supply are still under pressure for the tourism sector," Jiang said.
Restrictions and concerns did not stop many spending money online and offline on clothes, home appliances, food and gold.
Electronics retailer Suning.com said a new store in Nanjing, East China's Jiangsu Province saw sales exceeding 200 million yuan on its opening day. Online, sales of air-conditioning units surged 482 percent, refrigerators jumped 310 percent and washing machines 342 percent, the company said in a statement to the Global Times on Tuesday.
In Shanghai, an online shopping festival with livestreaming, discount and other sales promotions had generated more than 10 billion yuan as of 2 pm Tuesday.
In Guangzhou, South China's Guangdong Province, Chinese moms, affably dubbed "dama," reported emptied shelves of certain types of gold bars.
In a symbol of good luck, two people clang the bell at Wendesday's reopening ceremony of Huanghelou, or Yellow Crane Tower, a Wuhan landmark which had been closed for 98 days due to the coronavirus. The tourist spot has put measures in place to control crowds and ensure visitor safety. Photo: Li Hao/GT
'Shot in the arm'
"What this May Day holiday tells us is that the enthusiasm of Chinese consumers has not been curbed by the epidemic too much," Cao said.
Tourism and consumption were among the sectors most affected by the epidemic and such a recovery was a "shot in the arm" for the Chinese economy, he noted.
Chinese officials have been focused on boosting domestic consumption, which contributes about 60 percent to total GDP growth.
Apart from relaxing certain travel restrictions, governments introduced a slew of measures to boost consumption, including coupons.
During the holiday, at least 68 cities across the country launched trillions of yuan in coupons to boost consumption, according to the domestic news portal Jiemian.com.
Cao said that if the pandemic did not resurge and consumption continued to rebound, even at the current pace, China would be able to make up the historic 6.8 percent fall in GDP in the first quarter and achieve GDP growth of between 3.5 and 5.5 percent this year.
Many Chinese analysts noted that the most important takeaway from the May Day holiday was not just the rebound in tourism and consumption, but a valuable lesson in how the country could strike a balance between economic reopening and epidemic prevention.
"This gave us very good information that if we take effective measures to prevent the spread of the virus, we can gradually reopen the economy," Cai Jiangnan, director of the center for healthcare management at the China Europe International Business School, told the Global Times.
"If we do it right, we can take care of both."
Holiday economy rebounds
By Wang Cong Source:Global Times Published: 2020/5/5 21:58:42
Travelers made 115m trips, spent $6.74b during May Day holiday
China on Tuesday marked a milestone in its efforts to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, as over 100 million tourists flocked to popular attraction sites across the country during the just-concluded May Day holiday and spent billions of dollars, all while averting a much-feared resurgence of COVID-19 cases.
While the final tally on trips and consumption during the five-day holiday remains low compared to that of last year due largely to remaining anti-epidemic efforts and lingering fear of the virus, it offered a much-needed boost of confidence to the Chinese economy and a sound path for recovery going forward that strikes a balance between necessary efforts to prevent a resurgence of the virus and a gradual opening of more sectors, Chinese analysts noted on Tuesday.
Economic activities are expected to further pick up pace in the weeks and months ahead as progress during the holiday helped allay concerns among many businesses and consumers and encourage gradually relaxing restrictions in certain areas, they said.
Tourists wait for their trains at Hangzhou East Railway Station on Tuesday as the 5-day May Day holiday ends. Photo: VCG
Long-waited rebound
During the five-day holiday, Chinese travelers made a total 115 million trips, down 41 percent compared to last year, according to data from the and Tourism on Tuesday. Total tourism spending reached 47.6 billion yuan ($6.74 billion), down nearly $10 billion from last year, the ministry said.
Although the figures are significantly down from previous years, they are exceeding expectations, analysts noted, pointing out that restrictions are still in place in many areas across the country aimed at preventing a second wave of the epidemic and so some inevitably steered clear of travel.
"It was a big test for both economic recovery and epidemic prevention and it is fair to say that we passed the test," Jiang Yiyi, professor of the leisure sports and tourism school of Beijing Sport University, told the Global Times on Tuesday.
It is worth noting that even as , there were no reported new clusters of infections as of noon on Tuesday. During the holiday, China reported seven new confirmed cases, six imported.
This year marks the first time in 12 years that China extended the three-day May Day holiday to five days, a measure designed specifically to boost consumption and economic growth.
May Day holiday tested China's ability to recover amid the risks of a resurgence, analysts noted.
Beyond the data, the enthusiasm of Chinese travelers was palpable on the streets of Beijing over the holidays and in countless online pictures of popular attractions across the country, including Wuhan, Central China's Hubei Province, hit hardest by the epidemic.
In a clear sign of a nationwide recovery, Hubei opened up 22 main tourist sites for the May Day holiday, receiving a total of about 7.36 million trips and 2.45 billion yuan in tourism revenue, official data showed on Tuesday. But the number of trips at most sites was down as much as 80 percent from last year.
In Beijing, officials also lowered the public emergency response level and lifted certain travel restrictions ahead of the holiday to boost travel.
The capital city received 4.63 million trips, about 55 percent of last year's figure, and raised revenue of 4.18 billion yuan, about 36 percent of last year, official data showed.
"These are extraordinary figures, considering that there are still a lot of restrictions in place to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus," Cao Heping, a professor of economics at Peking University in Beijing, told the Global Times on Tuesday.
and Beijing, strict anti-epidemic measures remained in place across a country on high alert for a resurgence of the epidemic.
Tourism ministry officials noted that 30 percent of tourism sites across the country did not open and many limited visitors to about 30 percent of normal capacity.
"Both demand and supply are still under pressure for the tourism sector," Jiang said.
Restrictions and concerns did not stop many spending money online and offline on clothes, home appliances, food and gold.
Electronics retailer Suning.com said a new store in Nanjing, East China's Jiangsu Province saw sales exceeding 200 million yuan on its opening day. Online, sales of air-conditioning units surged 482 percent, refrigerators jumped 310 percent and washing machines 342 percent, the company said in a statement to the Global Times on Tuesday.
In Shanghai, an online shopping festival with livestreaming, discount and other sales promotions had generated more than 10 billion yuan as of 2 pm Tuesday.
In Guangzhou, South China's Guangdong Province, Chinese moms, affably dubbed "dama," reported emptied shelves of certain types of gold bars.
In a symbol of good luck, two people clang the bell at Wendesday's reopening ceremony of Huanghelou, or Yellow Crane Tower, a Wuhan landmark which had been closed for 98 days due to the coronavirus. The tourist spot has put measures in place to control crowds and ensure visitor safety. Photo: Li Hao/GT
'Shot in the arm'
"What this May Day holiday tells us is that the enthusiasm of Chinese consumers has not been curbed by the epidemic too much," Cao said.
Tourism and consumption were among the sectors most affected by the epidemic and such a recovery was a "shot in the arm" for the Chinese economy, he noted.
Chinese officials have been focused on boosting domestic consumption, which contributes about 60 percent to total GDP growth.
Apart from relaxing certain travel restrictions, governments introduced a slew of measures to boost consumption, including coupons.
During the holiday, at least 68 cities across the country launched trillions of yuan in coupons to boost consumption, according to the domestic news portal Jiemian.com.
Cao said that if the pandemic did not resurge and consumption continued to rebound, even at the current pace, China would be able to make up the historic 6.8 percent fall in GDP in the first quarter and achieve GDP growth of between 3.5 and 5.5 percent this year.
Many Chinese analysts noted that the most important takeaway from the May Day holiday was not just the rebound in tourism and consumption, but a valuable lesson in how the country could strike a balance between economic reopening and epidemic prevention.
"This gave us very good information that if we take effective measures to prevent the spread of the virus, we can gradually reopen the economy," Cai Jiangnan, director of the center for healthcare management at the China Europe International Business School, told the Global Times.
"If we do it right, we can take care of both."
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Is there a breakdown on what April's exports were ? Just curious how much were medical related.
Not sure where to find data for last month but I'm sure it can't be all due to medical stuff that added 40 billion to the balance.
i think it's likely due to growth of e commerce and also people needing things to play with at home.
i'm not too worried about China internal economy because Chinese will adapt. 5000 years to go at least
.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Nope China export grew by 3.5% confounding the skeptic and as always socalled expert always give their qualifier comment saying this won't last Yeah but you never been right once
China says exports rose 3.5% in April, crushing expectations for a decline of 15.7%
PUBLISHED WED, MAY 6 202011:09 PM EDTUPDATED 3 HOURS AGO
KEY POINTS
’s dollar-denominated exports unexpectedly rose in April, but imports fell the same month as movement restrictions to contain the eased.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs released on Thursday, exports rose 3.5% from a year ago while imports fell 14.2% in the same period.
had expected exports to have fallen 15.7% in April from a year earlier while imports were expected to have fallen 11.2% from a year earlier.
In March, China’s exports fell 6.6% from a year ago, while imports slipped 0.9% in the same month.
China’s trade surplus for the month of April was $45.34 billion — compared to the $6.35 billion economists polled by Reuters had predicted. China reported trade surplus of $19.9 billion for the month of March.
China’s trade surplus in April was the largest since December last year when the
Ahead of the data release, Liu Li-gang, chief economist for China at Citigroup, said the country’s medical exports likely rose in April as it shipped health-care goods to the rest of the world.
“The number in the early part of April was very strong already,” Liu told CNBC before the official data was released.
Nomura economists noted a surge in the exports of antivirus medical supplies with the export value of such items jumping from about 1 billion Chinese yuan ($141 million) in April 1 to April 10, to more than 3 billion Chinese yuan ($423 million) in late April, they wrote in an analysis of the customs data on Thursday.
Here are the factors behind China’s exports bounce and imports miss
The exports of such medical supplies — that includes 27.8 billion face masks and 130 million protective suits — could have boosted headline export growth in March and April by as much as 2.7 percentage points from a year ago.
Factories were also likely fulfilling a backlog of orders as Chinese workers gradually headed back to work after an extended lockdown from late January.
“But this prop should soon fade, with exporters unlikely to be immune from the sharp slowdown in global activity for long,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics. Global demand will likely remain weak for months, he added.(socalled expert comment_)
Nomura analysts also said April’s export growth would not be sustainable, with growth likely to drop significantly in May and June.
Two separate manufacturing showed activity was weak for the month of April as export orders dropped.
Chinese businesses are reopening and getting back to work as the daily number of new cases slow in the country.
But the situation remains serious in the rest of the world with more than 3.74 million people infected so far, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Many economies have come to a halt due to widespread lockdowns, hitting consumption and demand.
Even though China looks like it’s turning the corner in the pandemic, with over the Labor Day holidays from May 1-5, challenges still remain where demand is concerned, said Helen Qiao, head of Asia economics at BofA Securities.
There is some pent-up demand after lockdowns, but low-income households have been hit much more by the movement restrictions, Qiao told CNBC on Thursday before the data release.
Spending on services would also be lower than a year ago. “People may feel probably a bit worried or nervous about going to malls, to dine there, or to stroll around, or to send their kids to their English extra curricular education center etc.,” said Qiao.
There are also concerns over China’s current with the U.S. over the coronavirus pandemic, with President Donald Trump on China in retaliation for the outbreak.
China says exports rose 3.5% in April, crushing expectations for a decline of 15.7%
PUBLISHED WED, MAY 6 202011:09 PM EDTUPDATED 3 HOURS AGO
KEY POINTS
- Data from the General Administration of Customs released on Thursday showed exports rose 3.5% from a year ago in April. Economists polled by Reuters had expected exports to have fallen 15.7%.
- Meanwhile, April imports fell 14.2% from a year ago. Economists polled by Reuters had expected imports to have fallen 11.2% from a year earlier.
- China’s trade surplus for the month of April was $45.34 billion as compared to the $6.35 billion economists polled by Reuters had predicted.
- Exports of medical supplies surged in April.
’s dollar-denominated exports unexpectedly rose in April, but imports fell the same month as movement restrictions to contain the eased.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs released on Thursday, exports rose 3.5% from a year ago while imports fell 14.2% in the same period.
had expected exports to have fallen 15.7% in April from a year earlier while imports were expected to have fallen 11.2% from a year earlier.
In March, China’s exports fell 6.6% from a year ago, while imports slipped 0.9% in the same month.
China’s trade surplus for the month of April was $45.34 billion — compared to the $6.35 billion economists polled by Reuters had predicted. China reported trade surplus of $19.9 billion for the month of March.
China’s trade surplus in April was the largest since December last year when the
Ahead of the data release, Liu Li-gang, chief economist for China at Citigroup, said the country’s medical exports likely rose in April as it shipped health-care goods to the rest of the world.
“The number in the early part of April was very strong already,” Liu told CNBC before the official data was released.
Nomura economists noted a surge in the exports of antivirus medical supplies with the export value of such items jumping from about 1 billion Chinese yuan ($141 million) in April 1 to April 10, to more than 3 billion Chinese yuan ($423 million) in late April, they wrote in an analysis of the customs data on Thursday.
Here are the factors behind China’s exports bounce and imports miss
The exports of such medical supplies — that includes 27.8 billion face masks and 130 million protective suits — could have boosted headline export growth in March and April by as much as 2.7 percentage points from a year ago.
Factories were also likely fulfilling a backlog of orders as Chinese workers gradually headed back to work after an extended lockdown from late January.
“But this prop should soon fade, with exporters unlikely to be immune from the sharp slowdown in global activity for long,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics. Global demand will likely remain weak for months, he added.(socalled expert comment_)
Nomura analysts also said April’s export growth would not be sustainable, with growth likely to drop significantly in May and June.
Two separate manufacturing showed activity was weak for the month of April as export orders dropped.
Chinese businesses are reopening and getting back to work as the daily number of new cases slow in the country.
But the situation remains serious in the rest of the world with more than 3.74 million people infected so far, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Many economies have come to a halt due to widespread lockdowns, hitting consumption and demand.
Even though China looks like it’s turning the corner in the pandemic, with over the Labor Day holidays from May 1-5, challenges still remain where demand is concerned, said Helen Qiao, head of Asia economics at BofA Securities.
There is some pent-up demand after lockdowns, but low-income households have been hit much more by the movement restrictions, Qiao told CNBC on Thursday before the data release.
Spending on services would also be lower than a year ago. “People may feel probably a bit worried or nervous about going to malls, to dine there, or to stroll around, or to send their kids to their English extra curricular education center etc.,” said Qiao.
There are also concerns over China’s current with the U.S. over the coronavirus pandemic, with President Donald Trump on China in retaliation for the outbreak.