Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[ZeEa5KPul]

This is probably a stupid question, but are participants in a vaccine trial deliberately infected with the pathogen the vaccine targets or just blood-tested for antibody response?

 

[broadsword]

This is probably a stupid question, but are participants in a vaccine trial deliberately infected with the pathogen the vaccine targets or just blood-tested for antibody response?

That's a good and logical question.

 

[shanlung]

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ddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd

from whatsapp chat

This is from a GP I know and is not the rumour mongering type.

Just finished attending a web seminar on Covid19 for 800 Spore doctors.
Very depressing.
55% to 70% of Covid19 infected are asymtomatic or have minimal symptoms, but can shed the virus for up to 4 weeks.
So it means the 'circuit breaker' or even more drastic measures will extend to 6 weeks or even 8 weeks.
Latest large scale study, just released 15min ago, shows that hydroxychloroquine has no positive effect in treatment.
So mask up everybody everywhere you go and stay at home.

 

[localizer]

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ddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd

from whatsapp chat

This is from a GP I know and is not the rumour mongering type.

Just finished attending a web seminar on Covid19 for 800 Spore doctors.
Very depressing.
55% to 70% of Covid19 infected are asymtomatic or have minimal symptoms, but can shed the virus for up to 4 weeks.
So it means the 'circuit breaker' or even more drastic measures will extend to 6 weeks or even 8 weeks.
Latest large scale study, just released 15min ago, shows that hydroxychloroquine has no positive effect in treatment.
So mask up everybody everywhere you go and stay at home.

good to know


@ZeEa5KPul antibody response.

The effectiveness part is done in real world setting, which is easy right now with all the people being exposed. No need to do it intentionally.


Flu vaccines fail all the times despite all our experience with it.

 

[shanlung]

 

[Jura The idiot]

Yesterday at 10:53 AM

also noticed with a delay,

12 hr 10 min ago

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and I don't think so; I think it'll grow because of Michigan

"it" is now 2078 based on

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:
18544 (April 10) - 16466 (April)

20453 (April 11) - 18544 (April 10) = 1909 yesterday according to

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looking at

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now the distribution is three states with 1k+, about dozen states in 500 range

 

[Jura The idiot]

Because the curve is just rising, because they haven't tested much yet (approx. 5000 tests per 1 million inhabitants) and because the virus has been able to spread unnoticed in recent weeks due to a lack of social distancing.

Just like in the USA, UK, and several other countries that wanted to go their own way.

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• 466 new cases and 17 new deaths in
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[Jura The idiot]

Belarus was relatively ok until 2 days ago if they have been successful with contact tracing. But the problem now is the number has doubled over past 2 days which makes it very difficult to continue contact tracing. Time for a new approach.

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• 245 new cases and 4 new deaths in
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[Jura The idiot]

The Guardian story of

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didn't sound convincing to me; even if there were some additional paperwork (the 10th paragraph), it could simply mean they don't want to see some hooey announcements


LOL but personally I don't need to get convinced, as in Friday at 7:46 PM

if the virus didn't originate in China, there would be an outbreak in other-than-China country last year, I guess

(but of course one might claim a already infected foreigner visited Wuhan and so on, LOL)

 

[superdog]

Because if you cannot interpret the data from a group, then what good is the group?

Not that these people were infected and exposed to different things in their daily lives?

So if some of your placebo group got naturally infected during the course of the 12-18 month phase 3 and naturally developed antibodies, that invalidates your vaccine or shows contamination in your study?

With a placebo group that yields uninterpretable data, you still don't know what's wrong and basically have to explain away everything you see. If the placebo group developed antibodies, then it's because they developed them naturally; if they got sick, then it's because they got exposed to something, etc...

Do you know the purpose of randomization in a randomized controlled trial?

It implies that if you find some subject in your placebo group got naturally infected, you need to assume that your vaccine group has been exposed to the same risk.

And if you know your vaccinated sample is at risk of developing antibodies from outside contact, not just from the vaccine you are testing, does that ring any bells when you try to conclude your vaccine's efficacy?

It is exactly because there is a placebo group that you can be alerted to such contamination.

All data is clue, even if it's a clue that says "you messed up, you should start the trial again", it is still valuable because you may have avoided killing people with an ineffective vaccine. When finding antibodies in your placebo group, if you simply dismiss it as "uninterpretable" and attempt to "solve" the problem by cancelling the placebo group, you should not be doing medical research.

Fortunately, professionals do not learn how to do medical research from ostriches.

Human challenge trials lasting 2 months in a secure facility solves all of these issues.

I'm afraid this is wishful thinking, based on what I have explained in previous posts as well as predictions on vaccine development time from the world's top experts. It would be great if true, but unlikely.

For mice, it's basic. For people, you need to think instead of opening a textbook, reading that you need control group, so you do a control group. For me, a person, it's disrespectful to haul my ass into the hospital to get my blood time and time again after injecting me with saline when you have something that can potentially vaccinate me.

I didn't say the phase 3 needs to be nixed; I said human challenge trial can be done in parallel to get something out there ASAP. Safety is already established in phase 2, which is pre-human challenge trial. Reliability will be determined in the human challenge trial, over a smaller but controlled group. In the meantime, it's better to have something that at least partially works (or completely) than to have nothing at all until phase 3 ends in 12-18 months.

I simply do not agree with you or Bltzio that this is a standard case that defaults to the textbook approach to experimentation. I think this is a very urgent situation and executive decisions need to be made to speed things up drastically.

Like what Bltizo said, when you enroll in a clinical trial you're not there to get immunity, you are there to help conduct a research. If you find the possibility of being given a placebo disrespectful, then just don't volunteer yourself, I'm sure there are plenty of people who are more understanding and willing to help.